How Do We Track Critical Technologies, Prioritize Challenging Missions, and Map Them Both to Real-World Innovation Efforts?

Last week, Danielle Cave – Head of Executive, Research, and Strategy at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) – announced via X the launch of a major expansion of the ASPI’s Critical Technology Tracker – a comprehensive tool designed to monitor and analyze the global landscape of 64 critical technologies that are essential for national security, economic prosperity, and social stability. Find the details of a new ASPI report and major updates of the Tech Tracker website here – including a quick use case analyzing how the United States is performing against China in AI algorithms and hardware accelerators.

About the ASPI Critical Technology Tracker

The Australian Strategic Policy Institute’s (ASPI) Critical Technology Tracker provides insights into which countries and institutions are leading in high-impact research, which is an indicator of future technological capabilities and strategic intent. The dataset, which has been expanded to cover research from 2003 to 2023, highlights the shifting dynamics in global technology leadership. For instance, China has made significant advancements in areas such as quantum sensors and high-performance computing, while the United States leads in quantum computing and vaccines.

The Critical Technology Tracker is crucial for understanding global trends, identifying potential monopolies in technology capabilities, and guiding policy decisions to maintain or enhance a country’s competitive edge in critical technologies. These technologies span various fields, including defense, space, artificial intelligence, biotechnology, quantum computing, and more. https://techtracker.aspi.org.au/.

Use Case

How is the United States performing against China in AI algorithms and hardware accelerators?

Who produces the highest-quality research currently?: Here, we look at research papers published between 2019 and 2023 to rank national research performance in AI algorithms and hardware accelerators. We focus on two metrics: the H-index and the share of highly cited publications.

Who produces the most research?: Below is a breakdown of published research within AI algorithms and hardware accelerators between 2019 and 2023, showing which countries have been the most active in this field recently.

Historical Performance

Which countries have produced the highest quality research historically?: A historical view of research capability enables us to better understand how today’s current research leaders in AI algorithms and hardware accelerators get to where we are at. Alternatively, countries used to have research strengths in technology but have since seen their leadership positions slip. We track their research capability with their publication rate between 2003 and 2023.

Where is the research talent training and working?: This chart tracks the career trajectories of researchers who authored highly cited papers between 2019 and 2023 in AI algorithms and hardware accelerators. It breaks down their career trajectories into 3 stages, with a country associated with each stage. One is the country where they did their undergraduate studies. Two, the country where they did their postgraduate training. Three, the country in which their most recent institution affiliation is based.

Which institutions are influencing the flow of talent globally?: One way we can understand global movements of human talent is to better understand our institutions. It is the world’s leading institutions that, in general, are the most well positioned to tap into the global talent pool for a particular technology. Here, we look at papers published between 2019 and 2023 to rank the most competitive institutions for research in AI algorithms and hardware accelerators.

What Next?

The ASPI Critical Technology Tracker is a tool that addresses a conversation in the discussion at OODAcon 2023 between Michael Gibson, author of Paper Belt on Fire and founder of the 1517 Fund, and OODA CEO Matt Devost – which is how best to “order” and prioritize the list of touch tech and frontier tech innovation efforts – and map them to a weighted, prioritized list of actual real-world problems and pain points crucial to national security. Willy nilly development – which is all at once tactical while also taking the “strategic” long view somehow – seems futile. The ASPI Critical Technology Tracker tool is a robust solution to this problem. We will continue to feature other solutions to this problem as they cross our research desk. For the complete conversation between Matt and Michael, see:

Backing the Mavericks and Mad Scientists the Nation Needs Now: This post captures the gist of a discussion at OODAcon 2023 between Michael Gibson, author of Paper Belt on Fire and founder of the 1517 Fund, and OODA CEO Matt Devost. The key takeaways from the conversation between Michael and Matt included a discussion on disruptive innovation, the current state of technology, the importance of maintaining societal trust, and the role of leadership and collective commitment in ethical action and risk mitigation within the tech ecosystem. The conversation highlighted the importance of fostering innovation from unconventional avenues and the role that everyone within the tech ecosystem plays in harnessing potent technologies for challenging missions – with a caution of not conflating credentials with character or capability and the importance of backing mavericks and mad scientists to drive innovation.

Additional OODA Loop Resources

Cyber Risks

Corporate Board Accountability for Cyber Risks: With a combination of market forces, regulatory changes, and strategic shifts, corporate boards and their directors are now accountable for cyber risks in their firms. See: Corporate Directors and Risk

Geopolitical-Cyber Risk Nexus: The interconnectivity brought by the Internet has made regional issues affect global cyberspace. Now, every significant event has cyber implications, making it imperative for leaders to recognize and act upon the symbiosis between geopolitical and cyber risks. See The Cyber Threat

Ransomware’s Rapid Evolution: Ransomware technology and its associated criminal business models have seen significant advancements. This has culminated in a heightened threat level, resembling a pandemic in its reach and impact. Yet, there are strategies available for threat mitigation. See: Ransomware, and update.

Challenges in Cyber “Net Assessment”: While leaders have long tried to gauge both cyber risk and security, actionable metrics remain elusive. Current metrics mainly determine if a system can be compromised without guaranteeing its invulnerability. It’s imperative not just to develop action plans against risks but to contextualize the state of cybersecurity concerning cyber threats. Despite its importance, achieving a reliable net assessment is increasingly challenging due to the pervasive nature of modern technology. See: Cyber Threat

Recommendations for Action

Decision Intelligence for Optimal Choices: The simultaneous occurrence of numerous disruptions complicates situational awareness and can inhibit effective decision-making. Every enterprise should evaluate its methods of data collection, assessment, and decision-making processes for more insights: Decision Intelligence.

Proactive Mitigation of Cyber Threats: The relentless nature of cyber adversaries, whether they are criminals or nation-states, necessitates proactive measures. It’s crucial to remember that cybersecurity isn’t solely the responsibility of the IT department or the CISO – it’s a collective effort that involves the entire leadership. Relying solely on governmental actions isn’t advised given its inconsistent approach towards aiding industries in risk reduction. See: Cyber Defenses

The Necessity of Continuous Vigilance in Cybersecurity: The consistent warnings from the FBI and CISA concerning cybersecurity signal potential large-scale threats. Cybersecurity demands 24/7 attention, even on holidays. Ensuring team endurance and preventing burnout by allocating rest periods are imperative. See: Continuous Vigilance

Embracing Corporate Intelligence and Scenario Planning in an Uncertain Age: Apart from traditional competitive challenges, businesses also confront external threats, many of which are unpredictable. This environment amplifies the significance of Scenario Planning. It enables leaders to envision varied futures, thereby identifying potential risks and opportunities. All organizations, regardless of their size, should allocate time to refine their understanding of the current risk landscape and adapt their strategies. See: Scenario Planning

Track Technology-Driven Disruption: Businesses should examine technological drivers and future customer demands. A multidisciplinary knowledge of tech domains is essential for effective foresight. See Disruptive and Exponential Technologies.