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The following list is comprised of the Top 10 OODA Loop Original Analysis posts for 2023 as determined by the number of page views for each article.
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#1: Global Day of Jihad? Hamas Declares Friday, October 13th ‘Day Of General Mobilization’ by Daniel Pereira
In what is being called a “Global Day of Jihad”, a former Hamas leader has called for all Muslims worldwide “to take to the streets and the city squares in Arab and Islamic cities, as well as in cities everywhere where there are [Islamic] communities. There is a call [for demonstrations] this Friday (October 13, 2023) – the Al-Aqsa Deluge Friday.” In the statement (video below), former Hamas Leader Khaled Mashal went on to say: “By Allah, when the world, America, the West, and the Zionists see that the nation has come to the support of the Al-Aqsa Mosque, and that convoys of mujahideen are on their way to shed their pure blood on the land of Palestine, the battlefield will change, the balance of power will change.” A link to the video of the statement and details from various news outlets can be found here.
#2: Space-Based Power Project Successfully Transmits Power To Earth For First Time by Bob Gourley
Sci-Fi fans and futurists have long envisioned a mechanism that would capture solar power from space, focus it and transmit it to earth as a way of providing more efficient energy for humanity. There are many theoretical potential benefits of this if it can be made to work, including less pollution and no fear that the source of power will ever run out. With the right architecture, space based energy transmitted like this could also make access to energy available with little or no infrastructure. Just set up a device in your yard and there is your power. How might this work? The video here from Dr. Ali Hajimiri, Caltech Bren Professor of Electrical Engineering and Medical Engineering and Co-Director of the Space-Based Solar Power Project, explains how.
#3: In the First Known Combat Incident in Space, a Ballistic Missile is Shot Down Above the Kármán Line by Daniel Pereira
An Israeli Defense destroyed a ballistic missile above the earth’s atmosphere, “a notable technological achievement, but one with potentially serious legal and geopolitical implications.”
#4: Large Language Models (LLMs) and the Future of Work by Abe Usher
Large Language Models (LLMs) based on deep learning have been a part of the technological landscape since approximately 2018. However, their existence was initially unknown to the general public, with their usage largely confined to a few technical disciplines such as data scientists and software engineers. This all changed in late 2022 when ChatGPT, a Generative Pre-trained Transformer (GPT) from OpenAI, exploded onto the scene with more than 180 million users in its first year.
#5: Thomas Tull Chairs the $5 Billion US Innovative Technology Fund; Shield AI among Early Investments by Daniel Pereira
A clear inflection point over the course of Q3 and Q4 of 2022 was in National Security Investment for American Competitiveness. As a result, this theme was also featured in the OODA Alamanac 2023 (Jagged Transitions). At OODAcon in October 2022, we identified over $15b being raised for new investment initiatives focused on national security and American competitiveness and we continue to cover those initiatives here. This wave of speculative national security investment represents a new privatization of national security technology initiatives and will create a forcing function for the adoption of new disruptive technologies. The $5 billion fund discussed in this post was one of the first of the $15b raise in Q422 – which continues in earnest in 2023.
#6: Crypto Fraud is Less Than 1% of the Annual $3.2 Trillion in Illegal Activity in the Traditional Fiat Monetary System by Daniel Pereira
The current perception of the scale of fraud in the cryptocurrency and blockchain technologies ecosystem – now based largely on the scale of and level of headlines dedicated to the FTX fraud and Bankman Fried’s twisted branding of the “effective altruism” movement – along with the perception (and supporting narratives) that crypto is intrinsically fraudulent does not match the real numbers relative to the roughly $3.2 trillion in annual illegal activity in the traditional fiat monetary system. Details here.
#7: Chinese Cellular IoT technology: An analysis of threats and mitigation measures by Charlie Parton
Editor’s note: This post is the first of a three part series based on a paper examining Chinese use of cellular technologies (including the threat to US interests) by Charlie Parton. For the full paper see: Cellular IoT Modules- Supply Chain Security -bg
#8: Will There Be A Coup In Russia? by Bob Gourley
Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin has accused Vladimir Putin of of misleading people on Russia’s progress in the war. Prigozhin’s statements have been growing more and more angry over the last few weeks, and he is now promising revenge for attacks on Wagner he says were ordered by Russia’s ministry of defense. The Russian Defense Ministry has responded to these claims with denials. A spokesperson for Putin has said they are aware of the situation with Wagner Group and are taking measures.
#9: Russian Cyber War: An Elite Russian Hacker Spells Out His Vision for “Information Confrontation in World Politics” by Bilyana Lilly
Editor’s note: This post by Dr. Bilyana Lilly provides insights into an aspect of Russia’s information warfare activities. Dr. Lilly, part of the OODA Network, is the author of the book Russian Information Warfare: Assault on Democracies in the Cyber Wild West and a frequent contributor to our network membership meetings (see this summary).
#10: Saudi Arabia and the Future of Money by Daniel Pereira
Once again, like the ongoing Water Wars in France, recent geopolitical maneuvers read like a lost chapter from the OODA Loop Urtext: Kim Stanley Robinson’s near-future science fiction masterpiece, The Ministry of the Future (TMoF). Those who have read the book will recall that influential stakeholders and policymakers from the financial and monetary systems figure very prominently in the narrative. The book argues that legacy nation-state-based systems will have to survive and retain some level of societal trust for new systems of value capture, storage, and exchange to emerge to address later stages of the climate crisis. Recent reporting from Bitcoin.com and The Wall Street Journal on Saudi Arabia’s movement away from the U.S. dollar is an “origins story”, which makes the speculative fiction in TMoF read even more as a deeply accurate non-fiction complete with investigative reporting from the future.
Top 10 Security, Technology, and Business Books of 2023 by Matt Devost
The year 2023 felt incredibly disruptive and my annual reading list probably reflects that fact as I sought out books that focused not only on managing risk and chaos, but recognizing and fostering disruptive technology opportunties. Five years ago, I recommended Kevin Roberts’ excellent book “64 Shots” which talked about surviving in a VUCA (volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity) world and 2023 definitely qualified as a VUCA year. It was also a year to remember that there are bad actors in every domain and that being in the cultural zeitgeist doesn’t automatically qualify you as a good leader.
Five Exciting Breakthroughs in Materials Science by Scott Nuzum
Recent reports of a breakthrough in room-temperature ambient pressure superconductors (RTAPS) have rightfully stirred excitement. Yet it’s just one piece of the vast innovation puzzle that materials science is solving. Here are five other breakthroughs that are on track to make significant impacts on our lives within the coming decade.
Editor’s note: Scott is part of our OODA network. It has been great meeting with him in person and interacting with several of his CEOs as well. Since we clearly have to focus more 0n material’s science here at OODA Loop when we saw him posting on the topic at LinkedIn we asked if we can bring you more of his thoughts here. This is the first of what we hope to be many posts.-bg
Cognitive Infrastructure Worldwide is Under Attack in “the Worst Cognitive Warfare Conditions since WWII” by Daniel Pereira
What should the U.S. learn from some of the challenges faced by the cognitive infrastructure of other countries? Following are global updates (since our initial analysis over the course of 2022) of formal nation-state cognitive infrastructure efforts, for good and for ill, and conditions on the ground in various countries.
The Keynote Conversation at OODAcon 2022: OODA CTO Bob Gourley and Internet Pioneer Vint Cerf: In the run up to OODAcon 2023, we returned to the Keynote Conversation between Bob Gourley and Vint Cerf at OODAcon 2022. Find the full transcript here, as well as a link to the audio file. There are numerous takeaways from the conversation. We encourage you to spend time with the entire transcript. Two questions from Bob and Vint’s responses, however, are worth highlighting at the top of this post – as they significantly influenced our 2023 research agenda and our collective, internal OODA Loop here at OODA.
When Artificial Intelligence Goes Wrong by Bob Gourley
Mitigating Risks From Artificial Intelligence: This special report is a guide into some of the darker sides of AI deployments.
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About the Author
Daniel Pereira is research director at OODA. He is a foresight strategist, creative technologist, and an information communication technology (ICT) and digital media researcher with 20+ years of experience directing public/private partnerships and strategic innovation initiatives.
Informing your decisions with actionable intelligence
Informing your decisions with actionable intelligence