The Department of Defense’s 2024 Annual Report to Congress on Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China offers a comprehensive analysis of China’s evolving military capabilities, strategy, and its implications for global security (find the DoD release and link to full report here).

Why It Matters

The report, mandated by the National Defense Authorization Act, provides critical insights into the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) as China emerges as a strategic competitor to the United States. It outlines China’s military reforms, strategic goals, and global military activities, highlighting significant trends in the Indo-Pacific and beyond.

Overviews like this seek to accomplish two very hard things. They must assess both capabilities and intent. Capability assessment is hard but the report does a good job providing what is known of the status of the People’s Liberation Army and supporting forces as well as the impact dual use tech is having. Intentions are always much harder to assess but the report does a good job here too, relying on observations of past and current actions plus stated goals and objectives from leadership.

High level overview:

• Strategic Actions: With the PLA aiming to achieve “world-class” status by 2049, China’s military ambitions could reshape the global balance of power.
• Taiwan and Regional Dynamics: The report highlights heightened PLA activities near Taiwan and the South China Sea, emphasizing the risks to regional stability.
• Technological Integration: China’s investments in military-civil fusion and advanced technologies like AI, drones/robotics, quantum computing, and hypersonics signal a focus on next-generation warfare. Cyberwarfare is a key thrust examined in the report.

Key Points

China’s Strategic Ambitions:

•  National rejuvenation by 2049 includes fielding a military capable of securing global interests.
•  The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) supports China’s geopolitical and economic strategies, including military basing and dual-use infrastructure projects.

PLA Modernization:

•  Significant advancements across air, naval, space, and cyber domains, with the PLA aiming for integrated operations.
•  Expansion of nuclear capabilities, with a stockpile projected to exceed 1,000 warheads by 2030.

Operational Trends:

•  Increased military exercises near Taiwan and aggressive maritime operations in the South China Sea.
•  Strategic basing in Djibouti and efforts to secure additional facilities globally.

Technological Edge:

•  Emphasis on AI-driven warfare and dual-use technologies.
•  Integration of advanced unmanned systems, robotics and long-range precision strike capabilities.

Economic and Political Coercion:

• Use of statecraft and military power to assert claims in disputed territories, including the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait.
• Coordination between PLA and paramilitary forces like the China Coast Guard for gray-zone activities.

Global Outreach:

•  Expanding participation in multilateral exercises, notably with Russia and Iran.
•  Efforts to redefine international norms through initiatives like the Global Security Initiative (GSI).

What’s Next

For the U.S. and Allies:

• Strengthen regional alliances to counterbalance China’s influence.
• Enhance joint capabilities and readiness to deter aggressive maneuvers in contested areas.

China’s Focus:

• Continued investment in military capabilities for regional dominance and global reach.
• Strategic partnerships to undermine Western alliances and advance a China-centric world order.

Recommendations

Decision-makers should:

• Monitor advancements in China’s military technologies and strategic postures. Ensure you are on distribution for the OODA Daily Pulse to do that.
• Decouple your supply chains from China to the greatest extent possible.
• Review your frameworks to address emerging threats, such as cyber and space-based operations, and ensure appropriate scenario planning for your business interests. .