A new report from the Africa Center for Strategic Studies found that “disinformation campaigns seeking to manipulate African information systems have surged nearly fourfold since 2022, triggering destabilizing and antidemocratic consequences.”  Find a summary and analysis of the report here. 

Mapping a Surge of Disinformation in Africa

Image Source:  The Africa Center for Strategic Studies

There is a strong link between the scope of disinformation and instability.

From the report:  “The proliferation of disinformation is a fundamental challenge to stable and prosperous African societies. The scope of these intentional efforts to distort the information environment for a political end is accelerating. The 189 documented disinformation campaigns in Africa are nearly quadruple the number reported in 2022. Given the opaque nature of disinformation, this figure is surely an undercount.  Actors driving sophisticated disinformation attacks on African media ecosystems are taking advantage of the rapid expansion in the reach and accessibility of digital communications to reshape the continent’s information systems at scales and speeds not possible through traditional analog platforms.

There is a strong link between the scope of disinformation and instability. Disinformation campaigns have directly driven deadly violence, promoted and validated military coups, cowed civil society members into silence, and served as smokescreens for corruption and exploitation. This has had real-world consequences for diminishing Africans’ rights, freedoms, and security.  This onslaught of purposeful obfuscation comes as 300 million Africans have come onto social media in the past 7 years. There are now more than 400 million active social media users and 600 million internet users on the continent. Africans who are online rely on social media platforms for consuming news at among the highest rates in the world. Social media users in Nigeria and Kenya are near the top of the globe in the number of hours per day spent on social platforms. They are simultaneously the countries that report the most concern about false and misleading information.”

Report Highlights

• Disinformation campaigns have targeted every region of the continent. At least 39 African countries have been the target of a specific disinformation campaign.
• Disinformation tends to be concentrated. Half of the countries subjected to disinformation (20 of the 39) have been targeted three or more times, up from just seven countries meeting that threshold in 2022.
• African countries experiencing conflict are subject to much greater levels of disinformation—facing a median of 5 campaigns– highlighting the connection between instability and disinformation.
• Countries confronting disinformation typically face multiple disinformation actors. At times, these actors amplify one another’s misleading narratives, while at others, they clash or stay in separate lanes.
• Nearly 60 percent of disinformation campaigns on the continent are foreign state-sponsored—with Russia, China, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Saudi Arabia, and Qatar as the primary sponsors.

Russia continues to be the primary purveyor of disinformation in Africa

• Russia continues to be the primary purveyor of disinformation in Africa, sponsoring 80 documented campaigns, targeting more than 22 countries. This represents nearly 40 percent of all disinformation campaigns in Africa. These 80 campaigns have reached many millions of users through tens of thousands of coordinated fake pages and posts. Aggressively leveraging disinformation is a mainstay of Russia’s use of irregular channels to gain influence in Africa.
• Russia has promulgated disinformation to undermine democracy in at least 19 African countries, contributing to the continent’s backsliding on this front.

African elections provide prime opportunities for disinformation

• African elections provide prime opportunities for disinformation. Some employ mercenary disinfo-ops teams. One private Israeli group, dubbed “Team Jorge,” has reportedly implemented disinformation campaigns to disrupt over 20 African elections since 2015.
• Domestic actors have also increasingly integrated disinformation into their political playbooks, notably during Kenya’s 2022 and Nigeria’s 2023 election.
• African countries that uphold presidential term limits (i.e., those with stronger checks and balances) are less exposed to foreign sponsored disinformation, with an average of 1.5 campaigns compared to an average of over 3 campaigns for countries without term limits. This underscores the common aim of foreign disinformation to prop up authoritarian actors.
• Disinformation is surging in African information spaces at a time when press freedom—a critical protective barrier against disinformation—is in decline. Legislation targeting digital disinformation has been used as a pretext for harassing and detaining journalists.

What Next?  Further OODA Loop Scenarios

Disinformation Destabilizes Nation-States

• Disinformation, in its essence, is a formidable tool wielded with the intent to sow discord, manipulate public perception, and ultimately destabilize the foundational trust that underpins the social contract of a nation-state. The strategic deployment of disinformation can erode the very fabric of societal trust, creating fissures within the communal and political landscapes that are difficult to mend. This erosion of trust is not merely a byproduct of disinformation but rather its primary objective, aiming to undermine the legitimacy of institutions and the cohesion of societal bonds.
• The destabilizing power of disinformation lies in its ability to exploit the vulnerabilities inherent within the information ecosystem of a nation-state. By proliferating narratives that are meticulously crafted to resonate with pre-existing biases or fears, disinformation acts as a catalyst for polarization, driving wedges between different segments of society. This polarization is not a mere difference of opinion but a fundamental fracturing of the shared reality that is essential for democratic discourse and decision-making.
• The strategic implications of disinformation extend beyond the internal dynamics of a nation-state, encroaching upon its international standing and relations. In the geopolitical arena, disinformation can be employed by adversarial states to weaken a nation’s influence, degrade its alliances, and manipulate the perceptions of its actions on the global stage. This manipulation not only tarnishes the reputation of the nation-state but also compromises its ability to effectively engage in diplomacy and international cooperation.
• The advent of digital platforms has exponentially amplified the reach and impact of disinformation, enabling it to traverse borders with ease and infiltrate the information diets of individuals at an unprecedented scale.  The algorithms that underpin these platforms often exacerbate the problem, creating echo chambers that reinforce divisive narratives and insulate users from counter-narratives that could challenge their preconceptions.

Adversarial scenarios of the use of disinformation for competitive global advantage on the continent of Africa

The continent of Africa, with its rich tapestry of cultures, economies, and political landscapes, presents a fertile ground for the strategic deployment of disinformation by both state and non-state actors aiming to secure competitive global advantages. The use of disinformation in Africa can be analyzed through several adversarial scenarios, each with its unique implications for the continent’s stability, governance, and international relations:

Scenario #1 – The manipulation of electoral processes: Given the history of political instability in certain African nations, disinformation campaigns could be designed to undermine the legitimacy of elections, sow discord among the populace, and erode trust in democratic institutions.  By amplifying ethnic tensions or spreading false narratives about candidates, adversaries could influence election outcomes or incite post-election violence, thereby destabilizing nations and creating openings for external influence.

Scenario #2 – A focus on economic sabotage: Africa’s burgeoning economies, rich natural resources, and strategic trade routes make it a target for disinformation campaigns aimed at disrupting economic stability. For instance, spreading false information about a country’s financial health or the safety of its investment climate could deter foreign investment, manipulate stock markets, or destabilize regional economies.  Such tactics not only undermine the economic prospects of the targeted nations but also offer competitive advantages to adversaries by redirecting investments and resources to their markets.

Scenario #3 – In the realm of public health, disinformation poses a significant threat, especially in the context of disease outbreaks:  The COVID-19 pandemic has underscored the dangers of health-related disinformation, where false narratives about the virus, vaccines, and treatments can hamper public health responses and exacerbate health crises.  In Africa, where healthcare systems may already be under strain, disinformation could lead to increased morbidity and mortality, strain international health partnerships, and erode trust in health authorities.

Scenario #4 – The strategic competition for natural resources in Africa could be exacerbated by disinformation campaigns:  Adversaries might deploy disinformation to undermine competitors’ access to critical resources such as minerals, oil, and water. By casting doubt on the legality, environmental sustainability, or ethical implications of extraction projects, adversaries could sway public opinion, influence regulatory decisions, and secure competitive advantages in the global resource market.

Scenario #5 – The military and security domain presents a scenario where disinformation could be used to weaken African nations’ defense capabilities or manipulate regional conflicts:  False narratives about military actions, intentions, or alliances could lead to miscalculations, escalate conflicts, or undermine peacekeeping efforts. Such tactics not only threaten the stability of the continent but also serve the strategic interests of external powers seeking to expand their influence in Africa.

In confronting the challenge of disinformation, it is imperative to recognize that its effects are not confined to the digital realm but manifest in the physical world through altered behaviors, diminished trust in institutions, and, in extreme cases, violence.  These scenarios underscore the multifaceted risks posed by disinformation in Africa, highlighting the need for robust countermeasures, including digital literacy initiatives, fact-checking organizations, and international cooperation to safeguard the continent’s stability, prosperity, and sovereignty. Given the complex information ecosystems in Africa and their susceptibility to disinformation campaigns, it is crucial to understand the current state of these ecosystems and explore strategies to mitigate the impact of disinformation.

Additional OODA Loop Resources

Embracing Corporate Intelligence and Scenario Planning in an Uncertain Age: Apart from traditional competitive challenges, businesses also confront external threats, many of which are unpredictable. This environment amplifies the significance of Scenario Planning. It enables leaders to envision varied futures, thereby identifying potential risks and opportunities. All organizations, regardless of their size, should allocate time to refine their understanding of the current risk landscape and adapt their strategies. See: Scenario Planning

Russian Invasion of Ukraine: Russia’s aggression against Ukraine prompts global repercussions on supply chains and cybersecurity. This act highlights potential threats from nations like China and could shift defense postures, especially in countries like Japan. See: Russia Threat Brief

Israel and Gaza: The horrors of war in the region are also giving rise to uncertainty in markets, but for now it seems the war will not spread throughout the Middle East. There were many initiatives between Israel and Arab/Persian nations that have been stalled due to the war.

Economic Weakness in China: China’s economy faces dim prospects exacerbated by disasters, COVID-19, and geopolitical tensions. Amid limited financial transparency, some indicators suggest China’s economic growth is severely stunted, impacting global economic stability. See: China Threat Brief

Networked Extremism: The digital era enables extremists worldwide to collaborate, share strategies, and self-radicalize. Meanwhile, advanced technologies empower criminals, making corruption and crime interwoven challenges for global societies. See: Converging Insurgency, Crime and Corruption

Food Security and Inflation: Food security is emerging as a major geopolitical concern, with droughts and geopolitical tensions exacerbating the issue. Inflation, directly linked to food security, is spurring political unrest in several countries. See: Food Security

Demographic Time Bomb: Industrialized nations face demographic challenges, with a growing elderly population outnumbering the working-age demographic. Countries like Japan and China are at the forefront, feeling the economic and social ramifications of an aging society. See: Global Risks and Geopolitical Sensemaking