The opening scene of “The Ministry for the Future” by Kim Stanley Robinson is a powerful and harrowing depiction of a catastrophic heatwave in India – where temperatures specifically reach critical wet bulb temperatures.  Wet bulb temperature is a measure that combines air temperature and humidity, indicating conditions under which the human body’s ability to cool itself through sweating and evaporation is compromised.  While not a mass casualty event, over the next four days, places and pockets of the U.S. may be in wet bulb territory for a long enough duration to be of concern.  Consider this the first OODA Loop dispatch from the Ministry for the Future that is actually acting as a tactical advisory for the next four days as well. 

Background:  A Future “Wet Bulb” Mass Casualty Event in Uttar Pradesh, India

The opening scene of “The Ministry for the Future” by Kim Stanley Robinson is a powerful and harrowing depiction of a catastrophic heatwave in India. This event sets the stage for the novel’s exploration of climate change and its impacts on global politics, economics, and individual lives. In this scene, we are thrust into the midst of a severe heatwave in Uttar Pradesh, where temperatures exceed the survivability threshold, specifically reaching critical wet bulb temperatures. Wet bulb temperature is a measure that combines air temperature and humidity, indicating conditions under which human body’s ability to cool itself through sweating and evaporation is compromised.

In technical terms, a wet bulb temperature of 35 degrees Celsius (95 degrees Fahrenheit) is considered the upper limit of what the average human can withstand for a prolonged period.

In Robinson’s narrative, the temperature in Uttar Pradesh surpasses this threshold, leading to widespread suffering and fatalities as people are literally unable to cool themselves.  In this scene, the narrative thrusts us into the midst of an extreme heatwave where temperatures exceed the survivability threshold, specifically reaching critical wet bulb temperatures. Wet bulb temperature is a measure that combines air temperature and humidity, indicating conditions under which the human body’s ability to cool itself through sweating and evaporation is compromised. The description is vivid and harrowing, with people crowding into the waters of the Ganges River in a desperate attempt to escape the oppressive heat. Tragically, many do not survive.

This scenario is not just a fictional account but a stark reminder of the potential future we face as global temperatures continue to rise. It underscores the urgent need for comprehensive climate action to mitigate such extreme events. The depiction of wet bulb conditions in India serves as a microcosm of broader global challenges and raises critical questions about inequality, resilience, and the capacity of nations to respond to climate-induced crises.

What Next?  Further OODA Loop Scenarios

What are the scenarios if the Entire Northeastern U.S. reached web bulb conditions over the next four days, starting at 10 AM EST today, June 18, 2024?

Wet bulb temperatures, which combine heat and humidity to a level where the human body cannot cool itself through sweating, are a critical threshold. At or above a wet bulb temperature of 35 degrees Celsius (95 degrees Fahrenheit), human survival outside without artificial cooling becomes nearly impossible for extended periods.

The scenario of the Northeastern U.S. reaching wet bulb conditions over the next four days presents a complex and potentially catastrophic tableau, particularly given the dense population and significant infrastructure of the region:

1. Immediate Health Crises: The most direct impact would be on public health. Hospitals and emergency services would likely be overwhelmed with cases of heatstroke and other heat-related illnesses. This situation would be particularly dire in urban areas where the heat island effect can exacerbate temperatures. The elderly, children and those with pre-existing health conditions would be at a heightened risk.
2. Infrastructure Strain: The demand on power systems, especially air conditioning and refrigeration, would spike dramatically, potentially leading to brownouts or even blackouts. Remember, during past heatwaves, cities like New York have experienced significant power failures. The transportation sector could also be impacted, with thermal expansion affecting roads and rails, and air travel potentially disrupted due to density altitude effects on aircraft performance.
3. Economic Impact: Workplaces, particularly those outdoors or without adequate air conditioning, might need to shut down, leading to a sudden economic slowdown. The service industry could see a decrease in patronage as people avoid going out. Additionally, there could be significant impacts on the tourism industry, as the area becomes less attractive or feasible for visitors.
4. Social and Political Ramifications: On a broader scale, such extreme conditions could spark a substantial public dialogue about climate change and may lead to increased political pressure on leaders to take more aggressive action on climate policy. It could also trigger discussions about inequality, as poorer neighborhoods and communities might suffer more due to less access to cooling resources.
5. Long-term Repercussions: The aftermath could accelerate investment in climate resilience strategies, including enhanced green infrastructure, urban planning reforms to reduce heat retention, and innovations in renewable energy and cooling technologies.

What Next?

Given these potential scenarios, the importance of preparedness and adaptive strategies cannot be overstated. Urban planners and policymakers need to consider heat action plans that include cooling centers, enhanced medical services during heat emergencies, and public awareness campaigns about the risks of high wet bulb temperatures. Moreover, this situation underscores the urgent need for broader climate action to mitigate the frequency and intensity of such extreme weather events in the future.

https://oodaloop.com/archive/2024/06/20/is-the-mass-casualty-event-at-the-annual-hajj-pilgrimage-the-largest-to-date-induced-by-wet-bulb-conditions/

https://oodaloop.com/archive/2024/04/01/widespread-european-farmer-protests-some-violent-are-another-dispatch-from-the-ministry-for-the-future/

Further OODA Loop Resources

Other previous Installments in our Dispatches from the Ministry for the Future Series:

• The Water Wars in France Eerily Resemble Scenes from The Ministry for the Future
• Macron’s Recent Paris Summit Remarks Read Like a Charter Statement for the Ministry for the Future
• Another Daunting Dispatch from the Ministry for the Future: ConocoPhillips’ Project Willow Will Freeze Melting Artic
• Saudi Arabia and the Future of Money

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