Russia is advancing a hybrid warfare strategy that fuses the weaponization of displacement, strategic dependencies, and paramilitary proxies in Africa to undermine Western influence, extract resources, and create instability. A new RAND report, Russian Mercenary and Paramilitary Groups in Africa, provides detailed insight into this evolving threat vector—one that fuels regional violence, refugee flows, and geostrategic leverage through mercenary operations cloaked in security cooperation.

Summary

The RAND report analyzes Russia’s mercenary and paramilitary footprint in Africa post-Wagner rebellion. It shows a transition from semi-deniable military outsourcing to direct Kremlin control through the Africa Corps, with ongoing operations in six African countries. These mercenaries fuel instability, abuse civilians, undermine democratic governance, and exploit natural resources—all while contributing to broader population displacement and weakening regional institutions like ECOWAS (the Economic Community of West African States – a regional political and economic union of 15 West African countries, founded in 1975 to promote economic integration, peace, and collective self-sufficiency among its members. Its headquarters are in Abuja, Nigeria).

When integrated with the broader literature on weaponized displacement and strategic dependency, this analysis underscores how Russia is using refugee flows and instability to pressure the European Union, while exporting conflict as a geopolitical tool.

The Sahel Region of Africa

The Sahel is a semiarid transitional region of Africa situated between the Sahara Desert to the north and the savannas of Sub-Saharan Africa to the south. Stretching across the continent from the Atlantic Ocean to the Red Sea, it spans several countries including Senegal, Mauritania, Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, Nigeria, Chad, Sudan, and Eritrea.

This region is marked by:

• Harsh climate conditions, including recurring droughts and desertification.
• Chronic food insecurity and water scarcity.
• Significant political instability, with multiple recent military coups.
• Proliferation of armed groups, including jihadist insurgencies and foreign mercenary presence.

The Sahel has become a geopolitical flashpoint, not only due to climate stress and governance breakdowns but also because global powers (including Russia, France, and the U.S.) have competing security and economic interests in the region.

Why This Matters

• Weaponized migration has emerged as a key tool in Russia’s hybrid warfare strategy (aimed not just at Ukraine, but now at Europe’s southern flank via Africa).
• Displacement caused by Russian-backed violence and paramilitary actions threatens to overwhelm neighboring states and destabilize European migration policy.
• The strategic deployment of mercenaries, mineral extraction, and disinformation undermines Western-led development and security frameworks across the Sahel.
• Russia’s Africa Corps is directly linked to forced displacement, humanitarian catastrophe, and destabilization of international peacekeeping.

Key Points

• Expansion Post-Wagner: Following the 2023 Wagner mutiny, Russia formalized its control over operations in Africa through the Africa Corps, operating in Mali, CAR, Libya, Sudan, Niger, and Burkina Faso.
• Militarized Instability: Russian mercenaries contribute to escalating violence, particularly against civilians, as seen in the 2022 Moura massacre in Mali (500+ killed).
• Weaponized Displacement: Violence and insecurity induced by these operations have driven mass displacement, with refugees flowing into Mauritania, Chad, and the EU periphery.
• Hybrid Warfare and Narrative Control: Russia conducts aggressive information operations alongside kinetic force, framing coups as anti-colonial resistance while undermining democratic actors.
• Strategic Spillover: Russian actions have caused border incursions, including into Mauritania, prompting the risk of regional war. Chad faces destabilization from four sides.
• EU Pressure Point: Tactics align with broader strategies described in sources like The Times and Le Monde, where Russia seeks to accelerate refugee pressure on the EU via Africa:
  • How Russia uses migrants as weapons
  • Africa, the new frontline between the West and Russia

For the full RAND Report, see Russian Mercenary and Paramilitary Groups in Africa (RAND, 2025): A comprehensive RAND report tracking how Russia formalized its mercenary operations in Africa post-Wagner rebellion. It details military presence across six countries, civilian abuse, instability, and resource exploitation tied to migration flows.

What Next?

• Expect increased migrant flows toward Europe, indirectly triggered by Russian-backed instability and forced displacement across the Sahel.
• Further militarization of African politics, where juntas trade sovereignty for Russian protection.
• Potential proxy escalations involving NATO-aligned nations like Mauritania or Niger, as violence crosses borders.
• Diminishing credibility of UN and ECOWAS peacekeeping and mediation efforts as Wagner/Africa Corps expands influence.

Recommendations from the RAND Report

1. Track and Counter Weaponized Displacement: Treat forced migration not just as a humanitarian issue, but as a strategic vector of coercion. Invest in predictive analytics to map displacement risk zones.
2. Expose the Nexus of Mercenaries, Resources, and Displacement: Develop open-source mapping of extractive operations tied to Africa Corps/Wagner to uncover exploitation patterns.
3. Reinforce ECOWAS and Peacekeeping Legitimacy: Bolster funding, intelligence sharing, and capacity of African-led institutions to resist mercenary-led security substitution.
4. Sanction Hybrid Actors: Extend sanctions beyond Wagner to include Africa Corps and affiliated shell firms operating across Mali, Libya, and Sudan.
5. Integrate Migration Intelligence into Security Planning: Recognize refugee flows from the Sahel as early-warning signals of strategic destabilization tied to Russian influence.

Further OODA Loop Resources

The OODA Loop Original Analysis, The Climate Refugee Crisis: Addressing Forced Migration and Human Displacement at Home and Abroad, reinforces the central themes of the RAND analysis and accompanying literature review by framing displacement not only as a humanitarian crisis but as a strategic and security threat. It emphasizes that forced migration—driven by conflict, climate change, and political instability—is increasingly weaponized by state and non-state actors, creating ripple effects that challenge national resilience, border security, and geopolitical stability.

This perspective aligns with the RAND report’s findings that Russian mercenary activity in Africa exacerbates violence, economic fragility, and population flows, destabilizing neighbors and indirectly pressuring European borders. The article also highlights the need for anticipatory governance, early warning systems, and integrated policy frameworks—recommendations that complement the analysis’s call to treat weaponized displacement as an intentional, strategic threat rather than an incidental byproduct of instability.

A Deeper Dive

What Are Strategic Dependencies?

Strategic dependencies refer to situations in which a nation relies heavily on another country—or a narrow set of actors—for access to critical goods, services, or infrastructure. These dependencies become “strategic” when they involve sectors vital to national security, economic stability, or technological sovereignty, such as energy, semiconductors, rare earth minerals, food supply chains, or digital infrastructure.

While interdependence is a hallmark of globalization, strategic dependencies create vulnerability when one actor can exploit its control over essential supply chains or infrastructure nodes. This can result in coercive leverage, such as export bans, energy cutoffs, or digital blackouts, transforming shared economic ties into tools of geopolitical influence or punishment.

The concept was popularized in international relations by scholars like Farrell and Newman under the term “weaponized interdependence,” describing how powerful states dominate global networks and use chokepoints for coercive advantage. In the African context, Russia’s role in security provision, natural resource extraction, and political influence constitutes a strategic dependency for several fragile regimes—dependencies that Moscow can manipulate for broader geopolitical gain.

What Is the Weaponization of Displacement?

Weaponization of displacement refers to the deliberate use or manipulation of forced migration and refugee flows as a tool of statecraft, coercion, or hybrid warfare. It involves state or non-state actors intentionally triggering or exploiting population movements—often through conflict, repression, or economic sabotage—to achieve strategic objectives, destabilize adversaries, or extract political concessions.

This tactic can take multiple forms:

• Generating refugee flows to overwhelm neighboring states or regions (e.g., pushing migrants toward EU borders).
• Destabilizing domestic politics in target countries by fueling xenophobia, political polarization, and humanitarian strain.
• Undermining institutions like the UN or regional alliances through crises they are ill-equipped to manage.

Scholar Kelly Greenhill characterizes this phenomenon as “coercive engineered migration,” highlighting how displacement becomes a form of asymmetrical leverage. Notable historical examples include Gaddafi’s threats to “flood Europe” with migrants, and more recently, Belarus and Russia’s orchestration of migration surges to pressure the European Union.

In the African context, displacement caused by Russian-backed mercenary operations—such as those in Mali and the Central African Republic—has contributed to regional instability, refugee crises, and growing humanitarian burdens. These flows are not mere byproducts of conflict; they are increasingly embedded within broader geopolitical strategies of disruption and influence.

Source Summaries

Russian Mercenary and Paramilitary Groups in Africa (RAND, 2025): A comprehensive RAND report tracking how Russia formalized its mercenary operations in Africa post-Wagner rebellion. It details military presence across six countries, civilian abuse, instability, and resource exploitation tied to migration flows.

Weaponized Interdependence: How Global Economic Networks Shape State Coercion (Farrell & Newman, 2019): Foundational international security article introducing the concept of “weaponized interdependence”—the exploitation of global economic and informational chokepoints for geopolitical leverage.

Weapons of Mass Migration: Forced Displacement as an Instrument of Coercion (Kelly M. Greenhill, 2010): Seminal work defining “coercive engineered migration,” where states use refugee flows as geopolitical levers. Analyzes case studies like Gaddafi, Assad, and North Korea.

How Russia uses migrants as weapons — and why some blame Britain (The Times, 2025): Report documenting Russia’s use of migrant surges from Africa via Belarus to pressure the EU—framing migrant flows as hybrid warfare tactics.

Africa, the new frontline between the West and Russia (Le Monde, 2024): Analysis of Russia’s strategic realignment in Africa—extending influence through coups, mercenary networks, and anti-West alliances in the Sahel.