Here are experts from the Wilson Center and EU policymakers reacting to the recent approval of supplemental military aid from the U.S. to Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan—all in the context of the future of the U.S. defense industrial base debate. 

Background: Before the recent passage of military aid for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan, The Center for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS), Defense-Industrial Initiatives Group, The German Marshall Fund, and the Wilson Center (amongst other credible outlets) offered wide-ranging perspectives on the impact on the domestic U.S. defense industrial base by continued aid to the world from the “Arsenal of Democracy.”  

What Next? The Passage of U.S. Aid to Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan

US Aid to Ukraine Moves Forward – Expert Quick Takes

“The decision by Congress to send much needed support to Ukraine will be greeted with immense relief, foremost in Ukraine, followed closely by Europe. This is an important moment.” – Rt Hon Baroness Catherine Ashton LG GCMG, Distinguished Fellow 

On Saturday, April 20, the US House of Representatives passed a $95 billion package providing support to Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan. The majority of this package, some $60.84 billion, is to address the war in Ukraine. This package was first introduced back in October, but has been stalled in recent months. From here, the package moves to the Senate where it is expected to pass unhindered and it will then go to the president’s office for signature. In [this] compilation of expert quick takes, a diverse group of experts closely following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the security environment of Europe provide their analysis and reactions. 

EU to Take Up Ukraine Support Baton After Major US Boost

US approval of more than $60 billion in aid throws a lifeline to Ukraine’s beleaguered military, though it’s unlikely to turn the tide in the war on its own. Much will depend on how quickly US assistance can get to the front line after the House of Representatives approved the military and economic assistance on Saturday. For Europe, which already contributed €150 billion to Ukraine, next up is addressing demands for more air defenses and deciding on the use of frozen Russian assets. Europe is “close to a political agreement’’ on the use of a windfall tax on those assets, with the first collection seen by July 1, Belgian Finance Minister Vincent Van Peteghem told us yesterday. The bloc’s foreign ministers [discussed Ukraine at their meeting on April 22nd in Brussels].

The Future of the U.S. Defense Industrial Base

Our research questions include the following:

• Is the Global Defense Industrial Base experiencing disintermediation?
• Is this disintermediation a Gray Rhino or a Black Swan narrative? Or does it have more traction than we are aware of amongst mission-critical stakeholders and incumbent organizations?
• If so, is the disintermediation of the Defense Industrial Base merely a symptom of the larger themes we framed in the OODA Almanac 2023 – Jagged Transitions all meant to invoke the challenges inherent in the adoption of disruptive technologies while still entrenched in low-entropy old systems and in the face of systemic global community threats and the risks of personal displacement?
• Do the Department of Defense and the Prime Contractors need to make a conscious, formal effort to aggressively disintermediate themselves in a strategic effort to become Exponential Organizations (ExO) – with the architecture and capabilities to respond to the exponential disruption of emerging technologies?
• If so (and please excuse the evocative phrase), what does the self-cannibalization of the Defense Industrial Base even look like?  And are there signs that it is already happening and are clear concerted efforts already underway?

Broader research questions include:

• Is the United States Government, in general, experiencing disintermediation across many departments and agencies? 
• Globally, is the nation-state on the brink of disintermediation?

The Future of the U.S. Defense Industrial Base: Challenges and Opportunities

The Congressional Research Service (CRS) is best in class research and analysis, judged against both public or private sector standards.  In a recent report, the CRS broke down the vital questions U.S. policymakers need to be asking vis a vis the future of the U.S. Defense Industrial Base – questions which apply to all organizations strategic sensemaking as the U.S. Defense Industrial Base undergoes a transformation that overlaps with many vital industry sectors. 

Additional OODA Loop Resources

The Inevitable Acceleration of Reshoring and its Challenges: The momentum towards reshoring, nearshoring, and friendshoring signals a global shift towards regional self-reliance. Each region will emphasize local manufacturing, food production, energy generation, defense, and automation. Reshoring is a complex process, with numerous examples of failures stemming from underestimating intricacies. Comprehensive analyses encompassing various facets, from engineering to finance, are essential for successful reshoring endeavors. See: Opportunities for Advantage

What is the Defense Industrial Base Consortium?:  The Other Transaction Agreement (OTA) was also used recently by the Department of Defense (DoD) to award Advanced Technology International (ATI) “to serve as the consortium manager for the Defense Industrial Base Consortium (DIBC). This DIBC OTA will enable rapid research and allow access to commercial solutions for defense requirements and innovations from industry, academia, and non-traditional contractors.”  As a result, we set out to learn more about the DIBC for the OODA Loop community.  Details here.

The Inaugural U.S. National Defense Industrial Strategy: The first-ever National Defense Industrial Strategy (NDIS) was released last week by The United States Department of Defense (DoD). THE NDIS “offers a strategic vision to coordinate and prioritize actions to build a modernized defense industrial ecosystem.” Details here.

The Current Debate on ‘Forging the Defense Industrial Base for the Digital Age’:  Overall, the war in Ukraine has acted as an accelerant in a clash between a wide range of points of view in the debate surrounding the future of war and the future of the defense industrial base.  A sampling of various voices on the issues is captured here which have been curated from an archive of sources from Q422  (a timeframe which appears, in hindsight, to have been a crucial period in the debate) along with a vital hearing from just last week.

The Disintermediation and/or Self-cannibalization of the Defense Industrial Base:  A strategic suggestion to organizations if they are experiencing disintermediation is to aggressively self-cannibalize, with ecosystems and platforms as the new value creation and capture architectures of a new business model (or – to start – a standalone, but scalable business unit).  Exponential Organizations’ (ExOs), platforms, ecosystems, and sources of new value creation are based on the disintermediation (innovation that undermines established or incumbent structures) of a market, organization, or industry sector.

Designing, Quantifying, and Measuring Exponential Innovation:  The Exponentials Framework is a proven framework for the design of a technology ecosystem built to sustain the exponential scale and speed of the current technological and scientific era.  Exponentials are not futurist high-level concepts.  They are not intellectual bugs, but the central organizing feature of the technological road ahead.

Technology Convergence and Market Disruption: Rapid advancements in technology are changing market dynamics and user expectations. See: Disruptive and Exponential Technologies.

The New Tech Trinity: Artificial Intelligence, BioTech, Quantum Tech: Will make monumental shifts in the world. This new Tech Trinity will redefine our economy, both threaten and fortify our national security, and revolutionize our intelligence community. None of us are ready for this. This convergence requires a deepened commitment to foresight and preparation and planning on a level that is not occurring anywhere. The New Tech Trinity.

The Revolution in Biology: This post provides an overview of key thrusts of the transformation underway in biology and offers seven topics business leaders should consider when updating business strategy to optimize opportunity because of these changes. For more see:  The Executive’s Guide To The Revolution in Biology

Quantum Computing and Quantum Sensemaking: Quantum Computing, Quantum Security and Quantum Sensing insights to drive your decision-making process. Quantum Computing and Quantum Security

AI Discipline Interdependence: There are concerns about uncontrolled AI growth, with many experts calling for robust AI governance. Both positive and negative impacts of AI need assessment. See: Using AI for Competitive Advantage in Business.