Expert Practitioner of Analysis Carmen Medina on Mental Models and Cognitive Bias

05/13/2020 | Written by: Bob Gourley

Carmen Medina served 32 years in senior positions at the Central Intelligence Agency, most of which focused on one of the hardest tasks in the community, that of analysis.

Carmen rose to lead the strategic assessments group for the agency, then was deputy director of intelligence, the most senior leadership position for analysis at the agency and one of the most senior positions in the entire intelligence community. She also spent time as the director of the Center for the Study of Intelligence, where she oversaw ways to teach, mentor and improve analysis for the community.

She is also a writer, co-authority two books, Rebels at Work: A handbook for leading change, and Rebels at Work Dispatches.

We have been huge fans of Carmen’s for years, having observed her practicing her art in and out of the intelligence community. In this wide-ranging discussion we covered many topics of high relevance to business and government leaders, including:

Some of her recent writing on analytical thought
Ways to estimate intentions of others even in chaotic environments
Using the actions of leaders to track intent
Cognitive traps, cognitive bias and analytical methods that can mitigate problems with these traps
Human nature when it comes to analysis, and ways we can improve on our own weaknesses when it comes to thinking
The paradox of warning
The streetlight effect
Her sources of information

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