Opportunities for advantage will be created by the exponential disruption of the industrial base (including that of defense) coupled with exponential biotechnology innovation to build the bioeconomy of the future.  The creation of this technology and business ecosystem of the future is already underway.  As OODA CEO Matt Devost observed at OODAcon 2022:

“Another topic that I have flagged is the advancements in the biomedical space as well. Every Friday I participate in a two-and-a-half-hour phone call around innovation in all of these areas. And the biomedical, I feel, is accelerating at this crazy pace  – with what we’re able to achieve with CRISPR-type technologies, new therapies, and our understanding of disease.  It will be incredibly disruptive.”  We plan to continue to track this space right through our annual event, OODAcon 2023, where we will have a panel devoted to the theme of: 

Hacking Humans – The New Genetic Frontiers

There have been groundbreaking advancements in genetic engineering and new medical technologies are poised to disrupt the dialogue on health, ethics, global security, and the future of humanity.   This session will explore disruptive technologies, such as the revolutionary CRISPR gene-editing tool, breakthroughs in synthetic biology like Xenobots, and the emergence of exponential medical treatments that demonstrate rapid adoption properties. 

https://oodaloop.com/archive/2023/02/08/exponential-innovation-and-building-the-bioeconomy-of-the-future/

For our research and analysis to date on the bioeconomy of the future, see the link above.   In this post, We resume our efforts to understand the risks and opportunities in this exponential industry sector by taking a look at the recent 2023 Global Synthetic Biology Conference and the Synthetic Biology Summit:  “Blockchain Meets Bio” ‍‍ – Sustainable Biomanufacturing for Future Network States. This research also intertwines with our current series on the Future of Blockchain.  

Synthetic Biology, Blockchain Technologies, Polycrisis, and the OODA Almanac 2023

The future of the bioeconomy is operating in a climate of what we call multiple simultaneous crises – also known as poly-crisis, defined as a cluster of interdependent global risks that create a compounding effect, such that their overall impact exceeds the sum of their individual parts. (1)   Even by the OODA Loop regular readership standards, the community of practice profiled in this post is “out there” – in the best possible OODA Loop way.  

The issues surrounding the future of synthetic biology fall squarely under a few of the themes from the OODA Almanac 2023.  The core insight from this post is that when an innovation community has one foot firmly in the future, disencumbered by and looking deeply, critically at all legacy systems, many of the “Jagged Transitions” we flagged in our 2023 OODA Almanac have a “net positive” vibe to them:  the “jagged” part get smoothed out a bit – and positive, forward-thinking paths emerge:

• Time Juxtaposition: 2023 feels like we are living in yesterday and tomorrow simultaneously  – but this community is more about tomorrow, with future-forward discussions and visions of the entire biological system – including the human systems which overlay these biological functions which reference the best of utopian sci-fi visions– complete with visions of extreme global wealth and prosperity and abundance  – reconfigured and made more broadly available through conscious, distributed community building functions. 
• The System is Broke: A shorthand for the dysfunction and decline of government, private sector, and cultural systems.  In the midst of this dysfunction and decline, people are still going to need access to adequate healthcare and wellness as a result.  There are many threats in the world today, but global food insecurity is potentially going to make much of the world a horrible place to try to live. This community asks:  what if everyone was sufficiently well fed and living a longevity/wellness lifestyle – protected from the more negative impacts of aging – from the jump? The economy was reconfigured around this new system and how it delivers healthcare to the masses.  They are asking the big questions and seem to radically accept the brokenness of it all.  
• The Binary Fracture:  Individuals and institutions are presented with choosing between different polarities instead of being able to align along a median.  For example, the binary fracture that is the war in Ukraine has induced further food insecurity by way of the weaponization of the wheat crop from Ukraine, long considered the “Breadbasket of Europe.”  This post frames a binary fracture between reactive “sick care” to “prevention”  – all fueled by innovation in synthetic biology on the blockchain.   It also ups the game on the climate crisis – framing a binary fracture (which is a core insight from this research and analysis), that of – 

The current mode of global production of bioeconomy products/services and healthcare services and delivery…

  – in a binary fracture with  – 

…the costs of reading, writing, and editing DNA plummeting while speed and accessibility soar; cutting-edge medical advancements such as cell therapies, vaccines, and living medicines;  harnessing biology to produce bio-based jet fuel, textiles, concrete, and other chemicals and materials; crafting innovative foods, crops, and fragrances; and the potential applications of these technologies in shaping sustainable manufacturing ecosystems.

• Globalization Transformed:  With increased regionalization, including shorter more localized supply chains, in an effort at more national self-sufficiency, globalization will suffer from the same binary fracture tendencies we discussed earlier  – which will create more frequent pockets of instability and increase economic, health, and food disparities.  The notion of “networked states” central to the conversations captured below takes on global transformation head-on.  Localization and regional hubs figure prominently as well. 

Hanging over it all: Cyberconflict Escalation coupled with the emergence of The Code Era – “code that writes code and code that breaks code. Code that talks to us and code that talks for us. Code that predicts and code that decides. Code that rewrites us.”  Here, the synthetic biology and blockchain communities meet up at a “pop-up” city on the coast of the Adriatic Sea – and put biology writ large at the center of it all:  geopolitical cyber conflict escalation, the future of globalization, the code era, and the blockchain.

The new framing and systems thinking that came out of the conclave highlighted below are kind of mindblowing – and exciting.  This community of practice is eating the future whole.   As a result, critical paths to the future and solutions for the future are emerging in this space – and they are more clearly drawn than the mixed promise of the future offered by other industry verticals.  

Enjoy this read – and our insights on the future metrics for success, nascent key performance indicators, leaning into the abundance, and an edgy vision of hope  – while building the future through community, innovation, openness, collaboration, and creativity.  

SynBioBeta and The Global Synthetic Biology Conference

Exciting news for SynBioBeta next week! We're unveiling our Market Map featuring 129 sponsors, exhibitors & partners. The event will span 3 immersive days of content, delving into Biopharma, Climate, Food, Chemicals & Materials, Capital Markets, and more https://t.co/5Qfu3nTfNJ pic.twitter.com/rMHtbBWw5w

— John Cumbers (@johncumbers) May 19, 2023

SynBioBeta bills itself as the premier innovation network for biological engineers, innovators, entrepreneurs, and investors who share a passion for using biology to build a better, more sustainable planet. We provide our community members with personal and professional development support, as well as valuable opportunities for networking, partnership, collaboration, and education.

Every year SynBioBeta hosts the The Global Synthetic Biology Conference “which showcases the cutting-edge developments in biology that are transforming how we fuel, heal, and feed the world.”  They throw a broad, fascinating net as mentioned above, they are synthesizing (no pun intended) real edge thinking on the future of a sustainable planet, the future of the nation-state and global organizational and manufacturing ecosystems, the future of biotechnology, and the future of the ecosystems, platforms, and networks that are newly created to operate the bioeconomy of the future. 

Some of the innovations and ideas SynBioBeta tracked in the run-up to this year’s conference, which then became panels at this year’s event, include:

• Healthcare Incentives Have Gone All Wrong. Can Crypto, DAOs And NFTs Fix Them? The healthcare system is a complicated industry. With problems ranging from intellectual property to decisions about what research to pursue as the basis of a system with incentives gone wrong, Molecule is looking to the blockchain to try to fix these problems.  
• Why Is The FBI Sourcing Enzymes From Patagonia For Drug Detection?  When we picture biotech, we usually think about Boston or Silicon Valley. So why is the FBI sourcing enzymes for drug detection from Patagonia? The answer lies in an unconventional start-up that’s blazing a new trail for biotech.
• Ecovative: Growing Better Materials. Ecovative showcased the versatility of mycelium at the 2015 SynBioBeta Conference by designing the entire stage with mycelium materials. Ecovative will be back to design the stage at this year’s SynBioBeta Conference. 
• Synthetic Biology Gets The Gucci Treatment. What if microbes could transform the pollution and stench of industrial waste into luxurious, sustainable fragrances? It sounds like alchemy. But thanks to LanzaTech’s carbon-captured ethanol, 100% derived from the carbon monoxide waste of metal factories, you can wear it today.
• Could Montenegro Become Europe’s First Longevity State? This week, a picturesque seaside town in Montenegro will host a conference with over a hundred researchers, investors, and entrepreneurs from all over the world who specialize in aging and longevity.

“The Future is going to be really weird.” 

The future is going to be really weird.

In April, I traveled to Montenegro for the @SynBioBeta "Blockchain Meets Bio" Summit. This event was held at Zuzalu, a pop-up city experimenting with crypto citizenship.

Key leaders of both technology communities spent several days… pic.twitter.com/2rw3qYJCdo

— Elliot Hershberg (@ElliotHershberg) June 6, 2023

 

Origins Story: The Synthetic Biology Summit:  “Blockchain Meets Bio” ‍‍ – Sustainable Biomanufacturing for Future Network States

 

Where is and What is the “Pop-Up City of  Zuzalu” 

“In early April, the synthetic biology and blockchain communities came together in the pop-up city of Zuzalu for the synthetic biology summit “Blockchain Meets Bio: Sustainable Biomanufacturing for Future Network States.” Congregating from across the world on the coast of the Adriatic Sea — the body politic to bring the polis to life — attendees spent two days discussing and listening to talks on the futures of everything from science and democracy to innovation and meaningful communities. 

With SynBioBeta bringing the biology to the table, and a number of DeSci startups including ValleyDAO bringing the decentralized science to the table, Zuzalu served as the heart of the blockchain community. The brainchild of Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin, it was built out of a “shared desire to learn, create, live longer and healthier lives, and build self-sustaining communities.” Buterin welcomed everyone to Zuzalu by emphasizing his excitement around creating a space for experimenting with ideas that he and many others have been thinking about in theory, but which have not been discussed or built in practice. For him, the new city creates the opportunity for a sizable enough group of people to come together around such ideas — as actively supported by candidates in the upcoming Montenegrin parliamentary elections in their vision of the country’s future — even if temporary.” (1)

Zuzalu is described as ” Zuzalu is a first-of-its-kind pop-up city community in Montenegro,  There will be about 200 core residents brought together by a shared desire to learn, create, live longer and healthier lives, and build self-sustaining communities. Zuzalu will also host a variety of events on topics like synthetic biology, technology for privacy, public goods, longevity, governance and more. (3)

Innovative Support for Zuzalu in Montenegro

“This week, a picturesque seaside town in Montenegro will host a conference for over a hundred researchers, investors, and entrepreneurs specializing in aging and longevity from all over the world. The attendees are drawn not only by the country’s stunning landscape but also by its ambitions for innovation. Montenegro, a small yet forward-thinking nation, is laying a foundation to become Europe’s first longevity-oriented state – a state that implements policies to prioritize the healthy life expectancy and wellness of its citizens in the present, while also fostering innovation hubs in longevity research technology development for the future.

Montenegro’s pro-longevity exploration is being championed by Milojko “Mickey” Spajić, leader of the country’s new Europe Now centrist party and previous Minister of Finance and Social Welfare. Spajić, at the age of 35, is a young and dynamic political star who speaks fluent Japanese, Mandarin and French after a number of years living abroad and his forward-thinking approach has captured the attention of the international community. Before entering politics, Spajić was an investment banker at Goldman Sachs and later a venture capitalist at Das Capital. During that time, he participated in the cutting edge of innovation and made early investments in companies such as Bitflyer, one of Japan’s biggest crypto exchanges.

As Minister of Finance in the most recent cabinet, Spajić was resolute in implementing pro-prevention policies such as a tax on sugary drinks. And as part of his vision for Montenegro, Spajić aims to make the country a platform for innovation projects and enterprising people, attracting the best ideas and people with progressive immigration and regulatory policies. The government has already taken steps to establish itself as a blockchain hub. (Vitalik Buterin, the creator of EthereumETH -0.4%, was recently granted Montenegrin citizenship). But other hubs could be established in cutting-edge industries such as AI, health tech, longevity biotechnology, biomanufacturing and synthetic biology.” (2)

About The Summit

A “2-day summit delving into the fascinating crossroads of synthetic biology, network states, sustainable production, and blockchain technologies. Synthetic biology aims to simplify the engineering of biology, with the costs of reading, writing, and editing DNA plummeting while speed and accessibility soar. Discover how companies are harnessing biology to produce bio-based jet fuel, textiles, concrete, and other chemicals and materials. Engage with trailblazing entrepreneurs crafting innovative foods, crops, and fragrances. Gain insights into cutting-edge medical advancements such as cell therapies, vaccines, and living medicines. 

The summit also delved “into the potential applications of these technologies in shaping sustainable manufacturing ecosystems within future network states and emerging startup cities.” (4) 

In a recent article in Forbes, SynBioBeta founder John Cumbers reported on the summit:  “However transient the city may be, the even-shorter summit provided a far-ranging overview of the challenges and visions shared between the communities of synthetic biology and blockchain. Ranging from longevity and patient-driven research to localized manufacturing and open science, the potential for collaboration was made abundantly clear through the weekend’s lively conversations and panels. Synthetic biology’s commitment to and infrastructure for tackling humanity’s most pressing problems has never been clearer — from:

• LanzaTech (led by Jennifer Holmgren) and BioMason’s (led by Ginger Krieg Dosier) work to transform carbon emissions with microbes
• to bit.bio’s (led by Mark Kotter) cell reprogramming efforts to fight human disease;
• and Ginkgo Bioworks’ (led by Jason Kelly) Foundry for enzyme, strain, and protein discovery and optimization services.” (1)

Blockchain figures prominently in the Zuzalu vision of how they are curating the future.

Vitalik Buterin and synthetic biology pioneer Drew Endy held a fireside chat at the summit.  Cumbers provides a summary of this conversation, which took as its launching point some of the themes from Endy’s talk at SynBioBeta’s annual conference at the end of May, where he” previewed his ideas around some of the most pressing concerns for synthetic biology.”

Vitalik Buterin and Drew Endy on Synthetic Biology, Blockchain, Networked States, and new forms of human self-organization for social innovation and sustainable manufacturing

“…reduced forms of dependency and security requirements, represented by…the blockchain…[enables] cheap, local manufacturing and engendering more independent communities.”

Starting the conversation from that talk, entitled “All Atoms are Local: Building Biotic Futures,” Buterin asked Endy about what aspects of cryptocurrency and blockchain writ large were the most striking as places for collaboration with synthetic biology:

• Endy saw questions of who controls what and how to create trust in a zero-trust world as the key philosophical intersections, with network states possibly offering the sociopolitical infrastructure within which biology might make the greatest impact.
• Buterin was in full agreement with this assessment, despite his self-professed unawareness of synthetic biology until just the month prior, and pointed to the decentralized science (or “DeSci”) movement as an exemplar in response. “We have to create different incentive structures to reward openness and innovation, which means empowering a lot of scientific fields to create that kind of social innovation,” Buterin said.
• For Endy, thinking about how to achieve such lofty goals begins with democratizing biology — or rather, the inverse of it.
• “What is required to be functional in a democracy?” he asked Buterin and the audience. Part of Endy’s own answer rests in thinking about biologizing democracy instead, such that “biology as a way of growing things can give anyone anywhere the set of things needed to survive [and be] a fundamental optionality to undergird citizenship.”
• This aligned quite closely with Buterin’s own sense that reduced forms of dependency and security requirements, represented by technologies such as the blockchain, can reduce the fragility of society by enabling cheap, local manufacturing and engendering more independent communities. “It’s important to follow the actual power to create things that people need more practically for democratic societies and ways of living to thrive,” he remarked.
• However, both Buterin and Endy acknowledged that independence conceptualized as such is a “double-edged sword.”
  • Endy raised questions of geopolitical stability holding together only because of supply chain interdependence, musing if it would “ever be sufficient to recreate mutual interdependence” by instrumentalizing network nations and decentralized autonomous communities (DAOs), in blockchain parlance, “to counterbalance deglobalization through atoms.”
  • Vladimir Putin and his invasion of Ukraine served as an instructive example for Buterin of not only the stakes of inaction but also a description of “weaponized interdependence” as it exists in the world today. Instead, he hopes that “we become more likely to have peace than these conflicts if instead of people just being loyal to one thing, we have a more networked world where people are more loyal to different things.”
• Continued consideration of synthetic biology and blockchain in, of, and even as society traversed questions of what kinds of biological futures would be “good” for humanity and which would be good to avoid.
  • The immediate instinctive answers for Endy were to avoid “re-militarizing with synthetic biology” and a hope for “a biotic culture that can acknowledge biotech as instinctively scary….[but allow for] fear as a gift of the chance to be courageous.” For him, “it’s not just bioterror and bio-error. So how can we get not just to survival utility but also to the beauty of it in nature all around us, intermeshed with our creativity?”
  • In a spirit of embracing monsters and fears, Buterin shared that the extent to which “the ball was dropped” on pandemic preparedness really “scares” him, but out of this stems a deepened commitment to empower communities to be part of necessary solutions. “The concerns about biology are real and everyone acknowledges them. But compared to fears about AI, synthetic biology seems pretty tame,” he quipped.
• Fielding questions from the audience ranging from alignment and biosecurity, network states, responsibility, and ideas of “the good,” the two innovator-thought leaders took solace in the idea that technology isn’t just “happening” to people, but instead that people are happening to people.
  • “Don’t put technology between a person and another person. If those people make different decisions, then different things will happen,” Endy said, leaving the audience with deep questions about responsibility in a world in which decision-making — whether distributed or not — “is hard,” as Buterin put it simply.
  • “It’s possible we don’t get it right, but the best we can do is create better collective decision-making capacities and use tools that exist to keep discussions open and accessible,” the Ethereum founder concluded.

What Next?  Build it and They Will Come

Cumbers closed is coverage of the following contemplation:  “With the kernels of reflection and pearls of wisdom that were cultivated in just a short weekend, perhaps taking up the mantle of a distributed world of responsibility means thinking carefully about what kinds of futures each of us wants to build and then figuring out if and how to get there — at the intersection of biology, the blockchain, or whatever frontier might be next.”

What is exciting about this community of practice is there is no “failure of imagination” going on here:  every legacy system is on the chopping board, which is the level of systems thinking this period of exponential disruption fundamentally requires.  One critique:  we would like to see more of a discourse into the exponential speed of it all, including risks and opportunities.  We will do what we can to contribute to that aspect of the challenges ahead here on the pages of OODA Loop. 

Motenegro: A Case Study in How to Strategically Capture Value in an Industry of the Future 

A commitment to business model and value proposition innovation is also central to such efforts.  Cumbers reported on how Montenegro has positioned the strategic capture of value as an industry is disintermediated and a new ecosystem and platforms emerge:

“There are many different policies that Montenegro can explore to establish itself as a longevity state. These include:

• Declaring aging as a disease
• Passing right-to-try laws
• Enabling recognized partner organizations to sponsor visitors for visas, and
• Offering a fast track for employment authorization.

Education initiatives could be created to promote longevity biotechnology to university students in Montenegro and its former-Yugoslavian neighbors.

According to Vitalism, an organization focused on research and the establishment of longevity states, these policies could make Montenegro a magnet for talent, capital, and biotech innovation. And since aging is the root cause of most major chronic diseases, a strategy combining lifestyle interventions with efficient longevity medicine and support for aging R&D can offer enormous economic benefits. 

While a shift from reactive “sick-care” to prevention has been proposed and even made partial headway in other states, it often faces high political and structural resistance. As a result, many countries continue to spend vast amounts to treat the diseases of aging in late life, only to gain patients a few low-quality years. For example, in the United States, 30% of the ~$1T Medicare budget is spent on the last year of life. By breaking from this unfortunate status quo, Montenegro has an opportunity to become a global longevity leader.

Governments around the world are acutely aware of the challenges their healthcare systems face with aging populations – for which leadership by Montenegro could provide a model for reform. Already, Montenegro operates preventatively and efficiently, spending just 5.3% of its GDP on healthcare in 2019 and yielding life expectancies that are close to those of the UK, which spends 9.7% of its GDP on healthcare.

But even if they don’t win or achieve all their aims, the ideas presented should give other nations healthy food for thought. Israel recently hosted a “Longevity Nation” conference, Montana passed a progressive right to try law, and Saudi Arabia launched Hevolution Foundation to support longevity biotechnology. Perhaps these efforts are just the start of a new wave, where nations compete to outdo each other on the health and longevity of their citizens. Such competition could produce new “Silicon Valleys” for longevity, and we may all benefit from the innovations developed along the way.

Synthetic Biology

https://www.behance.net/gallery/66208181/Synthetic-Biology 

This is a visual essay exploring the future technology of synthetic biology. In recent years there have been major breakthroughs in DNA editing. Making
it inexpensive and precise to modify and or combine living organisms to our design specifications. Through the combination of organic and mechanical archetypes into new forms, we wanted to stir the imagination of designers and engineers. The goal of this project is to spread synthetic biology into the sci-fi communities. To help us visualize the design and engineering possibilities that this technology can bring to us in the future.

Featured Image Source:  SynBioBeta

OODAcon 2023

https://oodaloop.com/archive/2023/01/20/ooda-almanac-2023-jagged-transitions/

https://oodaloop.com/archive/2023/02/08/exponential-innovation-and-building-the-bioeconomy-of-the-future/

https://oodaloop.com/archive/2023/04/25/the-future-of-food-insecurity-and-agriculture-cybersecurity-grain-hoarding-rice-shortages-and-the-war-in-ukraine/

https://oodaloop.com/archive/2023/02/06/designing-quantifying-and-measuring-exponential-innovation/