Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin has accused Vladimir Putin of of misleading people on Russia’s progress in the war. Prigozhin’s statements have been growing more and more angry over the last few weeks, and he is now promising revenge for attacks on Wagner he says were ordered by Russia’s ministry of defense. The Russian Defense Ministry has responded to these claims with denials. A spokesperson for Putin has said they are aware of the situation with Wagner Group and are taking measures.

So, basically, Wagner Group has at least verbally started an insurrection and Putin and Russia’s Defense Ministry have started responses.

What Is Happening In Russia Right Now?

Some key observations (based on a variety of sources, including Twitter and press reports):

– Prigozhin has issued many statements essentially declaring war on military leadership, accusing them of lying to start the war, saying no way Ukraine was going to attack Russia.
– Wagner Group fighters have been noted calling home saying goodbye to family. 
– Wagner convoys are underway in Russia. Prigozhin has given them orders to kill anything in their way.
– Russian state media saying criminal case launched against Prigozhin. 
– Multiple Russian generals are taking to social media to make requests for Wagner troops to give up Prigozhin. They want him apprehended.
– The defenses around Moscow are being beefed up. Armored vehicles are in the streets around Moscow. Roadblocks being set up around the city and defenses raised at all organs of national power in Moscow
– Wagner HQ in St Petersberg being surrounded by riot police. 
– Wagner units based in Rostov (Near Northern part of Sea of Azov) being blocked. 
– Wagner base in Molkino (East of Crimea) being surrounded.

https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/1672360624335228928?s=20

Sources within the Russian Military are reporting that Plan “Fortress” has been Activated in the Capital of Moscow which brings the Law Enforcement and Para-Military Forces under various Government Ministry to the Defense of the City from any kind of External Threat.

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) June 23, 2023

If There Is A Coup In Russia, What Should You Do?

– Think before forming an assessment or taking any action. Chaotic times like this always result in conflicting reports. Be sure you are basing assessments on vetted sources.
– Think strategically about multiple scenarios and how it could play out to impact your business, your partners, your supply chains, your markets. 
– Form planning assumptions and check for data to counter those assumptions .
– Track our open source analysis and reporting at OODA. Join other experts and executives in dialog to help sort out what this means in a way contextualized for you. If you have yet to join OODA as a full member, do so here.

(24 June Update: Wow what a wild 24 hours that was! Prigozhin did start an insurrection and moved deep into Russia along two main fronts, one to Rostov and another moving into the Moscow region and approaching the city itself. Then in a strange plot twist he negotiated a withdrawal. This is still playing out, stand by for more!).

Additional Resources To Help Assess This Situation In Russia:

The OODA Almanac: Everything we are seeing here is taking place within a framework we articulated in this Almanac. Review to put all current events into context.

The Annual Threat Assessment of the Intelligence Community: Provides strategic insight into the desires, capabilities and intentions of hostile nations and the environment they operate in.

The OODA C-Suite Report: An overview of the many key topics we recommend C-Suite leaders track with updated assessments on the global geopolitical environment, the cyber threat and technological risk.

The Ukraine-Russia War Twitter List: A list of vetted experts to follow.