This report provides an overview of some major climate crisis related events worth tracking as an indicator of what may be the new reality in this age of polycrisis. We do not provide solutions but do mention mental frameworks important for leaders to master in finding solutions.
For this post, we focus on tactical, real-time signals and patterns. Following are a few of the manifest “edge cases” from the climate crisis which cropped up this week during our usual curation process – signals of promising societal responses and ongoing, discouraging climactic patterns, including:
- New, Generational Climate Activists Set Legel Precedent in Montana
- The Global Supply Chain: Drought-Induced Lower Water Levels in the Panama Canal
- Disaster Capitalism and the Potential Land Grab in Lanai; and
- AI Governance Meets the Climate Crisis
Background
In the midst of the reoccurring regional heat domes of the summer months and the uncharacteristic named storms (from Hillary, Harold and Franklin) currently wreaking havoc in the Eastern North Pacific and Caribbean – it feels like the frog is definitely starting to boil. Clearly, we are well past lamenting the decades of collective inaction by the human race on the issue of climate change. Instead, In this age of polycrisis, we find that the climate crisis is one of many parallel crises, cumulatively heightening global risks and uncertainties.
As our readership knows, we concern ourselves with decisionmaking and risk awareness (and how foresight strategy and the OODA Loop itself inform decisionmaking and mitigate risk). There are a variety of societal and economic reasons for why we find ourselves in this climate crisis – and cognitive biases have most definitely figured prominently over the last few decades. We encourage our readership to return to what has now become a seminal OODAcast with Expert Practitioner of Analysis Carmen Medina on Mental Models and Cognitive Bias – which is the source of this “deep dive” on the implications of cognitive biases for your business or organization: The Worst-Case Scenario is the Least Probable” and Other Cognitive Biases: Global Drought, Catastrophic Monsoons and Floods and “Zombie Ice”.
We also encourage you to revisit the OODA Almanac 2023: Jagged Transitions – which prices in this polycrisis environment in which we are currently operating and is “meant to invoke the challenges inherent in the adoption of disruptive technologies while still entrenched in low-entropy old systems and in the face of systemic global community threats and the risks of personal displacement.” The Almanac raises questions you and your team should be asking…sooner rather than later.
New, Generational Climate Activists Set Legel Precedent in Montana
We are talking plaintiffs, “between the ages five and 22”, in a lawsuit that alleged “fossil fuel policies contributed to climate change.” And they won.
BBC News: Judge sides with 16 activists in Montana climate case
“A Montana judge has sided with 16 young activists finding that the state violated their right to a “clean and healthful environment”, which the state constitution guarantees…similar cases have been brought forward by other youths, but this was the first case to go to trial. The state attorney general plans to appeal the ruling. ‘[The state is] permitting and promoting a fossil-fuel based energy system, and that’s contributing to climate change emissions,’ Miss Held said. ‘It goes against some of our basic rights that are written in our constitution.’
Citing a 50-year-old clause in the constitution that guaranteed the ‘state and each person shall maintain and improve a clean and healthful environment in Montana for present and future generations’, the lawsuit targeted a 2011 state law that made it illegal for environmental reviews to consider climate impacts when deciding on new projects, like building new power plants.
On Monday, District Court Judge Kathy Seeley found the state’s approval process for fossil fuel permits is unconstitutional, as it does not evaluate the effects of greenhouse gas emissions. ‘Montana’s emissions and climate change have been proven to be a substantial factor in causing climate impacts to Montana’s environment,’ wrote Judge Seeley. ‘Plaintiffs have proven that as children and youth, they are disproportionately harmed by fossil fuel pollution and climate impacts.’
Julia Olson, the lead attorney for Our Children’s Trust, called it a ‘huge win for Montana, for youth, for democracy, and for our climate’. More rulings like this will certainly come.’ Similar cases will soon be heard in several other states, including Hawaii, Utah and Alaska, as well as in countries like Australia, New Zealand, Pakistan, Colombia and Uganda.
The Global Supply Chain: Drought-Induced Lower Water Levels in the Panama Canal
'This is going to get worse before it gets better': Panama Canal pileup due to drought reaches 154 vessels https://t.co/ziCEE2VlPS
— CNBC (@CNBC) August 9, 2023
CNBC: State of Freight
The Key Points as reported by Lori Ann LaRocco at CNBC:
- There are 154 commercial vessels waiting to cross the Panama Canal, with an average wait time of 21 days.
- Panama Canal Authority has reduced the number of ships allowed to pre-book transit through the Panamax locks, and restrictions due to ongoing drought conditions will remain in effect until August 21.
- 40% of all U.S. container traffic travels through the Panama Canal every year.
- “This is going to get worse before it gets better,” said one marine shipping expert.
LaRocco followed up with this update yesterday via LinkedIn:
- 140 vessels waiting today- UP from 130 yesterday.
- There are journalists out there now playing catchup on this story but they don’t understand the impact or the ripple effects.
- Shippers will need to place their products on more than one vessel- which adds to costs.
- Delays are increasing which can increase costs.
- Energy deliveries are impacted because vessels are avoiding the Panama Canal and taking longer.
Disaster Capitalism and the Potential Land Grab in Lanai
The post gentrification and displacement of locals lower on the income scale in New Orleans post-Katrina is legend – with a redux of similar predatory behavior occurred in Puerto Rico post-Mario. How will the locals in Hawaii defend against this market force? Some early signs:
Fortune: Hawaii’s governor wants to suspend the housing market ‘to make sure that no one is victimized from a land grab’
“Hawaii’s governor vowed to protect local landowners from being ‘victimized’ by opportunistic buyers when Maui rebuilds from deadly wildfires that incinerated a historic island community and killed more than 100 people.
Gov. Josh Green said Wednesday that he instructed the state attorney general to work toward a moratorium on land transactions in Lahaina, even as he acknowledged the move would likely face legal challenges.
Rebuilding poses a challenge
As the island begins to think about rebuilding, Green vowed to prevent land grabs. He said he would announce details of the moratorium by Friday, adding that he also wants to see a long-term moratorium on sales of land that won’t “benefit local people.”
Many in Lahaina struggled to afford life in Hawaii before the fire. Statewide, a typical starter home costs over $1 million, while the average renter pays 42% of their income for housing, according to a Forbes Housing analysis. That’s the highest ratio in the country by a wide margin.
The 2020 census found more native Hawaiians living on the mainland than the islands for the first time in history, driven in part by a search for cheaper housing.
Green made affordable housing a priority when he entered office in January, appointing a czar for the issue and seeking $1 billion for housing programs. Since the fires, he’s also suggested acquiring land in Lahaina for the state to build workforce housing as well as a memorial.”
Lahaina residents worry developers will scoop up land after the recent wildfires
Leila Fadel talks to Tiare Lawrence, who belongs to a coalition of community members that worry Lahaina will be rebuilt without the buy-in of local residents. For the conversation, go to this link.
And, of course, AI Meets the Climate Crisis
While not an official OODA Loop endorsement of this particular AI ethics research efforts or governance framework (relative to the other governance efforts taking place globally, which we plan to review before year’s end) this was an interesting example of the praxis of the climate crisis and the challenges poised by artificial intelligence, so we include it here.
Prioritizing People and Planet as the Metrics for Responsible AI
The IEEE Standards Association (IEEE SA) has released a guide for Prioritizing People & Planet as the Metrics for Responsible AI: Ethically Aligned Design for Business
This paper, “Prioritizing People and Planet as the Metrics for Responsible AI,” is an extension of the paper “A Call to Action for Businesses Using AI.” The latter was the first paper written by the Ethically Aligned Design for Business Committee, which is part of the IEEE Global Initiative on Ethics of Autonomous and Intelligent Systems. A key focus of our first paper was that Responsible AI demands human-centric, value-based design.
For the full paper, go to this link.
OODA Almanac 2023 – Useful observations for contemplating the future
An Executive’s Guide To Cognitive Bias in Decision Making: A Career Intelligence Officer Provides Context on Fighting Bias in Judgement
Omand and Medina on Disinformation, Cognitive Bias, Cognitive Traps and Decision-making
“The Worst-Case Scenario is the Least Probable” and Other Cognitive Biases: Global Drought, Catastrophic Monsoons and Floods and “Zombie Ice”
