BABL AI – an Iowa city, Iowa-based company that audits and certifies AI systems – partnered with the Stockdale Center for Ethical Leadership at the U.S. Naval Academy to co-publish Report on “AI Enabled Weapons and Just Preparation for War.” an overview of the report including recommendations by the authors here.
From the report: “No potential application of artificial intelligence (AI) has prompted more urgent ethical concern than the prospect of AI-enabled weapons. The fear is that machines will precipitate war without human intervention and take human life during conflict without regard for innocent civilians. Framed in terms of the centuries-old just war tradition, AI-enabled weapons pose the risk of violating the principles of jus ad bellum, which govern when it is ethically justifiable to resort to war, and jus in bello, which determine when it is ethically justifiable to take life during war.”
AI-enabled Weapons and Just Preparation for War
Executive Summary
Just preparation for war (jus ante bellum) requires that the development and deployment of weapons be done in such a way so as to minimize unjust resort to war and unjust fighting in war. This report examines what jus ante bellum requires of states with respect to the development and deployment of AI-enabled weapon systems.
The development and use of AI-enabled weapons gives rise to distinctive risks for our ability to wage just wars. To minimize such risks, we ought to engage in rigorous testing, evaluation, validation and verification (TEVV) of AI-enabled weapons. Such testing should be a) cradle to grave, and b) modular and principled, and should be followed by c) gradual fielding in d) clearly defined operational envelopes, with e) appropriate explainability. In addition to adjusting TEVV to bette suit risk mitigation during the development of AIenabled weapons, countries should also seek to mitigate the AI-fueled security dilemma, which might arise from an AI arms race. To do so countries should invest in AI-weapon specific confidence building measures as well as a careful language of war preparedness.
What Next?
Recommendations from the Report
Avoiding the Security Dilemma
What might states do to minimize the risk that development of military AI systems will generate a security dilemma that could risk harmful deployment of such systems?
One important step is to avoid using language likely to trigger a sense of insecurity on the part of other states.
A second is to explore ways to reduce the uncertainties that give rise to the dilemma, and to adopt measures that can build trust among states about how such systems will be used.
The Language of Military Preparedness
On the one hand, a state needs to signal to other states that it has a military that will enable it to defend itself effectively if it is attacked, and win any conflict that occurs. On the other hand, it needs to communicate that it is not taking steps to give its military such a distinctive advantage that other states may feel so threatened that they disregard ethical constraints on the use of military force.
Confidence-Building Measures
In the military context, confidence-building measures (CBM) are designed to reduce states’ suspicion of one another through the exchange of information about capabilities and intentions, and establishment of some agreement on how military operations will be conducted. [lvii] Marie-France Desjardin’s study of CBMs concludes that “increasing transparency in military matters lies at the core of the confidence building approach. . . Secrecy breeds suspicions, and when states do not communicate, other is a lack of information about other states’ military capabilities or activities, officials tend to make worst-case analyses. ” [lviii
Report Sources Cited:
[lvii] The discussion in this section draws on Marie-France Desjardin, Rethinking Confidence Building Measures (2014)
[lviii] Desjardin, 21.
For the full report, go to AI-enabled Weapons and Just Preparation for War
Additional Resources:
Global Day of Jihad? Hamas Declares Friday, October 13th ‘Day Of General Mobilization’: In what is being called a “Global Day of Jihad”, a former Hamas leader has called for all Muslims worldwide “to take to the streets and the city squares in Arab and Islamic cities, as well as in cities everywhere where there are [Islamic] communities. There is a call [for demonstrations] this Friday (October 13, 2023) – the Al-Aqsa Deluge Friday.” A link to the video of the statement and details from various news outlets can be found at his link.
The Network Swarm Attack on Israel and the Escalating Global Networked War: Intelligence Failure? Black Swan? Gray Rhino? Systemic Failure? An entropic, sclerotic Israeli political system? The geopolitical and regional power context for the recent surprise, large scale and violent Hamas attack of Israel may prove to be “all of the above”. What is clear is the attack was designed as a large scale, kinetic and digital “network swarm” – which now opens up a new, “formal” kinetic front in the ongoing, global networked war in the Middle East. Swarm dynamics are a crucial mental model – which we apply here to the Hamas network swarm attack of Israel.
How Does Hamas Use Cryptocurrency for Fundraising and Financial Activities?: In our recent post on crypto fraud relative to fraud in the traditional fiat monetary systems, we encouraged our readers to think very critically about the perceptions of and narratives about the instrinsic value of cryptocurrency and the blockchain technologies on which they are based. In the shadow of the Hamas attack on Israel, TRM Labs has released a report on how Hamas uses crypto – which also moves the narrative away from the FTX collapse and the Sam Bankman-Fried trial as the central organizing principle in the perception of the future cryptocurrency.
Russian Invasion of Ukraine: Russia’s aggression against Ukraine prompts global repercussions on supply chains and cybersecurity. This act highlights potential threats from nations like China and could shift defense postures, especially in countries like Japan. See: Russia Threat Brief
Networked Extremism: The digital era enables extremists worldwide to collaborate, share strategies, and self-radicalize. Meanwhile, advanced technologies empower criminals, making corruption and crime interwoven challenges for global societies. See: Converging Insurgency, Crime and Corruption
Food Security and Inflation: Food security is emerging as a major geopolitical concern, with droughts and geopolitical tensions exacerbating the issue. Inflation, directly linked to food security, is spurring political unrest in several countries. See: Food Security
Geopolitical-Cyber Risk Nexus: The interconnectivity brought by the Internet has made regional issues affect global cyberspace. Now, every significant event has cyber implications, making it imperative for leaders to recognize and act upon the symbiosis between geopolitical and cyber risks. See The Cyber Threat
Decision Intelligence for Optimal Choices: The simultaneous occurrence of numerous disruptions complicates situational awareness and can inhibit effective decision-making. Every enterprise should evaluate their methods of data collection, assessment, and decision-making processes. For more insights: Decision Intelligence.
Embracing Corporate Intelligence and Scenario Planning in an Uncertain Age: Apart from traditional competitive challenges, businesses also confront external threats, many of which are unpredictable. This environment amplifies the significance of Scenario Planning. It enables leaders to envision varied futures, thereby identifying potential risks and opportunities. All organizations, regardless of their size, should allocate time to refine their understanding of the current risk landscape and adapt their strategies. See: Scenario Planning
