In this era of global polycrisis, leaders are also reacting to the major macro economic trend of the last thirty years – the fundamental driver of the tetonic shifts in geopolitics and deep inside the economies of nation-states – which is that the BRICs global share of GDP May Overtake the G7 by 2028.  Further geopolitical players and regions of the global polycrisis (jagged transitions, strategies, binaries fractures, major developments, and crucial events) summarized here include: The Americas, The Northern Frontier of Mexico, The Arctic, and Africa .

Geopolitical Futures: The Americas, The Northern Frontier of Mexico, The Arctic, and Africa

Polycrisis: A cluster of interdependent global risks create a compounding effect, such that their overall impact exceeds the sum of their individual parts. (1) 

The Americas and the Northern Frontier of Mexico

Two Fronts in the Future of Drone Warfare: Following are two noteworthy developments in the future of drone warfare. One, the expansion of drone warfare capabilities by the Department of Defense “at scale”.  The other:  a troubling drone presence in the northern frontier region of Mexico.

Opportunities for Regional Advantage: The U.S. Latino GDP is the 5th Largest Economy in the World (Surpassing the U.K. and India):  If Latinos living in the United States were an independent country, the U.S. Latino GDP would be the fifth largest GDP in the world, larger than the GDPs of India, the United Kingdom, or France. As Globalization is transformed and regional power clusters emerge globally, Latino spending power, economic progress, workforce participation, and progress growth are a source of regional competitive advantage which will buoy the U.S. Total GDP for the foreseeable future. Details here.

OODA Network Perspectives on the Regional Chaos and Corruption Driving the Historic Diaspora to the North:  The following perspective was part of the OODA Network monthly meeting held on Friday, April 21st, 2023 – a discussion that is now more prescient than ever in the wake of the expiration of Title 42 (effective in the early AM 4/21/23) – which is an OODA Network subject matter expert on the security conditions in Mexico, Central America, and South America provided the following intelligence on the general instability in Mexico, Central America, and South America.

Escalating Tensions between US and Mexico: An OODA Network Strategic Assessment:  This recording is from a special OODA Salon featuring the highly regarded expert in international crime and law enforcement (and long term friend of OODA) John Sullivan, Hal Kempfer and Brian Micchael Jenkins. John led this expert panel in a discussion of the geopolitical and business impacts of the kidnappings and killings of Americans in Matamoros Mexico.

De-Dollarization: New Fronts in the Global War Being Waged Against the U.S. Dollar: The Saudis and the Chinese have already piled on, but recently Brazil’s Lula and France’s Macron stated their countries intent to forge partnerships to move away from the continued centralization of the dollar in the global financial system. Industry leaders from various global industry sector have weighed in on this growing De-Dollarization movement. Various points of view on this issue have been compiled for your consideration.

Global IT Supply Chain Disruptions Should Bolster Innovation and Cybersecurity with North American Allies:  Backlogs in the global intermodal supply may precipitate a return to North America of over 40 years of outsourced manufacturing. So too, for reasons of national security and regional competitive advantage, global IT supply chain disruptions (ransomware, semiconductor shortages) necessitate business leaders and policymakers to take a fresh look at the Information Communications Technology (ICT) and Cybersecurity Strategy for North America. Did NAFTA even have a robust ICT commitment? How do business leaders and policymakers do a post-mortem on NAFTA, from an ICT perspective, to assess lessons learned and formulate forward-thinking strategies and innovative ICT-based trade initiatives? What is the broad ICT regulatory environment like in North America?

Africa

Seven Crucial Global Power Shifts, Displacements, Risks and Uncertainties Playing Out in Sudan: More often than not, the geopolitical lens applied to the African continent is that of an extension of the great power competition, as the US and China compete for Africa’s rare earth minerals.  This growing competition in Africa is a strategic function of  U.S.efforts to reshore semiconductor manufacturing and the role of rare earth minerals will play in the future green economy.

The Future of the Arctic

How has the War in Ukraine Changed the Geopolitics of “The New Arctic”?:  In July of last year, we followed up on OODA CTO Bob Gourley’s analysis of the Blueprint for a Blue Ocean with the question What Exactly is the PRC up to in the Arctic?  Climate change and climate-induced emergencies and crises are creating newly contested, geopolitical arenas.  The Arctic Region has one of the world’s smallest oceans, but because of where it is situated, it has the potential for connecting nearly 75% of the world’s population.  When you consider that 90% of all trade travels across the world’s oceans, this can be either a tremendous opportunity or an emerging vulnerability.  Additionally, the Arctic is home to 30% of the world’s undiscovered natural gas reserves, 13% of the global conventional oil reserves, and one trillion dollars’ worth of rare earth minerals.

Cyber Espionage Likely Supporting China’s Arctic Aspirations: There is little question that Beijing has seized the opportunity to capitalize on the United States’ internal division to implement its global agenda. Beijing has been more assertive, which was first seen in the March 2021 high-level meeting with the U.S. counterparts. While tensions ran high during the end of the previous U.S. administration with regards to tariffs and perceptions of China’s culpability in COVID, the meeting displayed an openly belligerent China. In the months following that contentious meeting, Beijing has relentlessly pursued its expansionist national interests.

Additional OODA Loop Resources

For further OODA Loop News Briefs and Original Analysis on these countries and regions, see OODA Loop:

 Mexico | Africa | The Americas | Brazil | The Arctic

The Global Polycrisis: The Middle East, China, The Indo-Pacific, Russia, Ukraine, and NATO: Polycrisis: A cluster of interdependent global risks create a compounding effect, such that their overall impact exceeds the sum of their individual parts.  The geopolitical players and regions of the global polycrisis (jagged transitiosn, strategies, binaries fractures, major developments, and crucial events) summarized here include: The Middle East, China and the Indo-Pacific, and Russia, Ukraine, and NATO.

Geopolitical Trends

Great power competition introduces new corporate risks, from supply chain disruptions to cyber threats. This competition extends to resources like food, water, and rare-earth elements, with heightened risks surrounding global computer chip supply.

Russian Invasion of Ukraine: Russia’s aggression against Ukraine prompts global repercussions on supply chains and cybersecurity. This act highlights potential threats from nations like China and could shift defense postures, especially in countries like Japan. See: Russia Threat Brief

Economic Weakness in China: China’s economy faces dim prospects exacerbated by disasters, COVID-19, and geopolitical tensions. Amid limited financial transparency, some indicators suggest China’s economic growth is severely stunted, impacting global economic stability. See: China Threat Brief

Networked Extremism: The digital era enables extremists worldwide to collaborate, share strategies, and self-radicalize. Meanwhile, advanced technologies empower criminals, making corruption and crime interwoven challenges for global societies. See: Converging Insurgency, Crime and Corruption

Food Security and Inflation: Food security is emerging as a major geopolitical concern, with droughts and geopolitical tensions exacerbating the issue. Inflation, directly linked to food security, is spurring political unrest in several countries. See: Food Security

Demographic Time Bomb: Industrialized nations face demographic challenges, with a growing elderly population outnumbering the working-age demographic. Countries like Japan and China are at the forefront, feeling the economic and social ramifications of an aging society. See: Global Risks and Geopolitical Sensemaking