“What we’ve done is create a way that you can easily move things in and out of a digital thread without having to have an army of people do it,” Roper said. “That’s going to open this up to companies that are not major [companies].” Roper likens the potential of the technology he’s developing to how Formula 1 racing has used digital technology to transform racing. Data collection sensors on race cars allow them to coexist in the real world and the digital world—something that doesn’t happen in the military today. “We don’t have that in aerospace and defense, but we will,” Roper said. When we do, we need a mechanism to take the data back from the physical system and improve the underlying digital twin, and decide, does that force a change to be pushed back to the physical, and where that will be of greatest value is in operationalizing algorithms.” It’s going to take time before this concept becomes a reality. But essentially, the digital world overlaps with the real world when the simulations are spot on. “When your digital and physical twin overlap, it’s like beast mode or superhuman strength for you,” Roper said. “When it doesn’t, it’s like kryptonite.”
What Next?
“Formula One is amazingly complex from an aerodynamic perspective. And in my opinion, it’s more complex than what we do in aviation.”
It’s been over two years since Will Roper left the Pentagon as the Air Force’s acquisition czar, and though senior service leaders seem to have moved away from some of his more ambitious ideas, Roper is not giving up on the digital design tools that he claims are critical for the United States to keep ahead of China. “Imagine if China makes this pivot,” Roper said of a revolution in digital design, where data-rich models can enable quick refreshes of complex weapon systems like aircraft. “Well, their designs may not be perfect between digital reality and physical, but if they have a way to iterate and tighten those gaps, then they will be exploring at an echelon far beyond us,” he warned Breaking Defense in an August 4 interview.
The Push for Formula One
“There will be myriad learning events on the way to Formula One prowess at this new tradecraft. The government needs to…get ready to learn and decide is it really in the business of innovation? Or does it like talking about it, knowing that somehow innovation is always denied to the public sector.”
After leaving the Pentagon in 2021, Roper co-founded a startup called Istari…Istari is offering a platform for clients to pursue their own digital engineering journey who may not otherwise have the resources or knowledge for how to do it themselves. “What we’ve done is take the system engineering function that is the digital thread as well as a huge degree of potential automation and turn it into a software platform available to everyone,” Roper explained.
Roper is inspired in large part by one industry that has already seized on the concept, which he talked up frequently in his Air Force days: Formula One racing.
F1 cars, Roper explained, extensively use digital engineering to rapidly iterate designs, leading to constant improvements to give drivers an edge — including in real time on race day.
“Formula One is amazingly complex from an aerodynamic perspective. And for my opinion, it’s more complex than what we do in aviation,” Roper said. “They are dealing with micro forces that they need to predict to within a millisecond of lap time, and they’re able to do that.” Roper also pointed to a key tradeoff F1 drivers make to inform their digital models by rigging their cars with hundreds of sensors, a lesson he said is applicable to aircraft. Though each of these gizmos carries a weight penalty, the sacrifice is worth it, he said, “because the data coming off of it is more valuable.” The same should be true for aircraft, where designers are often extremely sensitive to considerations like weight to maximize performance. “If I were building aircraft today, I would instrument them as much as my tolerances would allow,” Roper said.
There will be failures along the way as the Pentagon slowly incorporates digital engineering, Roper said, and officials will need to think differently about challenges like cybersecurity and pushing ahead with software updates forged in a digital environment. Ultimately, a key challenge will be embracing digital models as a “source of truth,” which must be backed by enough data to make the models reliable. It’s a change that won’t happen overnight, Roper said, though he assured the same was true for Formula One, which has already passed that milestone. “There will be myriad learning events on the way to Formula One prowess at this new tradecraft,” he said. “The government needs to buckle up, pun intended, and get ready to learn and decide is it really in the business of innovation? Or does it like talking about it, knowing that somehow innovation is always denied to the public sector.”
Additional OODA Loop Resources
Technology Convergence and Market Disruption: Rapid advancements in technology are changing market dynamics and user expectations. See: Disruptive and Exponential Technologies.
The New Tech Trinity: Artificial Intelligence, BioTech, Quantum Tech: Will make monumental shifts in the world. This new Tech Trinity will redefine our economy, both threaten and fortify our national security, and revolutionize our intelligence community. None of us are ready for this. This convergence requires a deepened commitment to foresight and preparation and planning on a level that is not occurring anywhere. The New Tech Trinity.
Benefits of Automation and New Technology: Automation, AI, robotics, and Robotic Process Automation are improving business efficiency. New sensors, especially quantum ones, are revolutionizing sectors like healthcare and national security. Advanced WiFi, cellular, and space-based communication technologies are enhancing distributed work capabilities. See: Advanced Automation and New Technologies
Rise of the Metaverse: The Metaverse, an immersive digital universe, is expected to reshape internet interactions, education, social networking, and entertainment. See Future of the Metaverse.
