How do we maintain societal trust as individuals migrate from platform to platform, identities get impersonated, and technologies like ChatGPT and Midjourney produce conversations and images indistinguishable from the truth through malicious prompts or hallucinations?  This topic was examined at length OODAcon 2023, exploring the trust threats and emerging trust wars and looking to identify solutions that help alleviate these risks.

The following captures insights from a discussion between Heather McMahon, UMD Applied Research Lab for Intelligence and Security and SJ Terp, Cognitive Security Expert.

Summary of the Panel Discussion 

“…seeking out actual human relationships and communities, and resisting the division caused by online experiences, can…contribute to building trust.”

Establishing trust within organizations becomes crucial when dealing with misinformation and disinformation:  Emphasizing the importance of trust in society is necessary to mitigate these risks and find solutions that alleviate them.  Blockchain technologies, despite facing hurdles, continue to be disruptive and offer new opportunities in various sectors.  These innovations can contribute to building trust and enabling new models for business and governance. Understanding and addressing these issues is essential for individuals and society as a whole.

How were new boundaries discussed?  Blockchain innovation was explored as a potential enabler of new business and governance models.  Contractors were advised to focus on key capabilities to survive and avoid suspicion by leaving digital signatures.

The enemy does not need to attack in a kinetic fashion:  The enemy’s ability to attack without relying on kinetic methods is a concerning reality.  This shift in tactics challenges traditional notions of warfare, as the enemy can utilize alternative means to inflict harm. Maintaining societal trust during technological disruption, such as cyberattacks, becomes crucial.  Trust becomes a critical factor within organizations, especially in managing the flow of information and countering misinformation.  Overall, these insights highlight the evolving nature of threats and the need for adaptability in addressing non-kinetic forms of attack.

How we give and field trust:  Trust is a complex concept that involves belief, confidence, and credibility.  In the context of organizations, managing trust becomes challenging due to misinformation and disinformation.  Trust matters because it affects relationships, decision-making, and overall organizational functions.  Identifying the intentions behind patterns of events and considering belonging and community are important aspects of trust.  The panel discussed the challenges in giving and fielding trust in different contexts.

What role do Benefit systems play in trust?  Benefit systems play a role in trust by contributing to the establishment of trust within organizations  Encouraging risk-taking and fostering a culture of learning and innovation are essential for building trust.  Benefit systems also play a role in managing trust within organizations amidst the challenges of misinformation and disinformation.  Overall, benefit systems can support trust-building efforts by promoting transparency, accountability, and credibility in organizations.

“…understanding and aligning incentives and motives are essential in establishing and maintaining trust. Incentives should foster and motives should reflect a positive sense of belonging and community.” 

Working Definitions of Trust:  Trust can be defined as a concept encompassing belief, confidence, and credibility. It involves relying on safe and reliable sources, individuals, and information. Trust is crucial for managing relationships and organizations, especially in the face of misinformation and deception.  It is difficult for adversaries to attack trust, as it serves as a center of gravity for people’s will and cannot be easily compromised.  Trust is also related to value similarity and the sense of belonging within a community.  However, determining who deserves trust and who does not can be complex, involving factors such as clearance holders and credit ratings.  . Ultimately, trust involves looking beyond established norms and being aware of the illusion of closeness.

The Illusion of Closeness: The concept of the “illusion of closeness” was discussed in the context of trust and technological disruption.  Social media platforms are highlighted for creating an illusion of trust and the significant impact of misinformation.  It is noted that conspiracy theories can serve as a “belonging signal”.  Building trust involves diverse ideas, listening to people, and exploring insider trust.  The impact of AI in various fields like healthcare and future business models is also mentioned.  However, there is caution and a need for transparency and proper training in AI implementation.  Overall, the illusion of closeness and the importance of trust in the age of technological disruption were highlighted in the discussion.

Why Trust Matters:  Trust matters because it plays a crucial role in various aspects of life, society, and technology. It influences relationships between individuals, institutions, and automated systems.  The erosion of trust can lead to negative consequences and a decline in trust in institutions has been observed. Trust is connected to credibility, belief, confidence, and value similarity.  In today’s world saturated with information, managing trust becomes challenging due to the spread of misinformation and disinformation.  As a result, adversaries can target trust as a center of gravity, making it important to safeguard and maintain it. Overall, trust is essential for fostering cooperation, effective communication, and building strong connections in both personal and professional contexts.

Why Categorize Each Bit of Information?:  Categorizing each bit of information plays a crucial role in determining trustworthiness:  Context is significant in understanding and evaluating trustworthy information.  It is important to consider the source’s credibility and value similarity. Additionally, categorization helps manage trust within organizations amidst misinformation.  Instead of simply marking information as true or false, it is essential to analyze the intentions and patterns behind events.  Categorization helps identify patterns in information “in the wild” before and after an event.  By categorizing information, we can better assess its reliability and make informed decisions about trust. One panelist noted that the true/false dichotomy and categories “is maybe not the way to go.” 

Incentives and motives:  What is someone trying to achieve with this pattern of events?:  Incentives and motives play crucial roles in trust. Blockchain technology has faced challenges due to misaligned economic incentives and regulatory oversight, but it continues to disrupt various sectors and offers new opportunities.  Thus, understanding and aligning incentives and motives are essential in establishing and maintaining trust. Incentives should foster and motives should reflect a positive sense of belonging and community.   

“Although the potential of AI is vast, there is cautious optimism and a wait-and-see attitude due to concerns about government regulations and the potential displacement of human decision-making.”

Who Receives Trust and Who Doesn’t?:  This question explores the dynamics of trust allocation. Trust is not solely based on true or false markers but rather on the achievement of certain goals or patterns of events.  Factors like belonging to a community, having certain credentials, or credit ratings may influence trustworthiness.  Interestingly, unconventional individuals without traditional credentials or who are engaged in unexpected activities can sometimes gain trust.  However, trust may not always correlate with achievements or accolades.  The distribution of trust can also be influenced by algorithms and platforms, raising concerns about manipulation and who benefits from certain narratives.  Overall, trust allocation is a complex process influenced by various factors and contexts.

The Erosion of Trust – Credibility and Social Media:  The erosion of trust, credibility, and social media is a significant concern in today’s digital age.  Misinformation on social media platforms has a significant impact, highlighting the illusion of trust they can create.  The significance of context in understanding and evaluating trust was noted, as well as the issue of misplaced trust in social media platforms.  Building trust and sorting out reality versus misinformation is a challenge for individuals  It is important to seek out communities and diverse ideas, listen to people, and challenge the information presented. Trust and credibility in social media are complex issues that require critical thinking and active engagement to combat the erosion of trust.  

Zero Trust Societies:  The concept of “zero trust societies” refers to the challenge of maintaining societal trust in an era where individuals migrate between platforms, identities can be impersonated, and technologies like ChatGPT and Midjourney can generate convincing fake conversations and images. This raises concerns about trust threats and emerging trust wars, as well as the need to identify solutions to alleviate these risks.  The notion of a “Black Swan” and the risk of the “Gray Rhino” were also discussed in relation to trust and risk management 3 . Additionally, the presence or absence of a digital signature can impact trust and arouse suspicion.

Trustworthy AI: Trustworthy AI is a crucial aspect of the development and implementation of artificial intelligence systems. It involves factors such as credibility, erosion of trust, and the establishment of trust between humans and automated systems.  Trustworthy AI aims to address concerns regarding transparency, reliability, and accountability in AI decision-making processes. However, there are challenges in measuring and ensuring trust in AI systems.  Adversarial machine learning is an area of concern where adversaries exploit AI systems, highlighting the need for robust security measures.  The future of trustworthy AI includes considerations of regulations, the impact on various industries like healthcare and insurance, and the need for responsible development and training of AI.  Although the potential of AI is vast, there is cautious optimism and a wait-and-see attitude due to concerns about government regulations and the potential displacement of human decision-making.  The development of communities and human relationships, as well as seeking out reliable sources of information, play a role in navigating the complexities of AI. Overall, the goal is to strike a balance between leveraging the capabilities of AI while ensuring its trustworthiness and accountability.

“…the potential privacy concerns related to advanced technologies that capture and analyze various biological and behavioral data were highlighted.”

Witches as a historical case study in relation to trust, particularly in the context of conspiracy theories and belonging signals:  Conspiracy theories are a “belonging signal” – ie. witches have been on the receiving end of conspiratorial thinking for centuries, characterized by conspiracy theories as the “other” evolving into kinetic, violence-based hysteria. The issue of misplaced trust in social media platforms was highlighted, exposing the illusion of trust they can create.  There is a need to build trust back into disruptive technologies like blockchain, which have faced fraud and exploitation.  Overall, the discussions on witches and trust revolved around the vulnerability of trust in the digital age and the importance of critical thinking and discernment.

Insider Trust:  Insider Trust was discussed in relation to  the illusion of trust created by social media platforms and the impact of misinformation on trust. The significance of context in understanding and evaluating trust was emphasized.  Additionally, the session explored the threats and emerging trust wars in a digital landscape where individuals migrate platforms and technologies can produce indistinguishable content from the truth through malicious prompts or hallucinations.  Overall, the discussion highlighted the need to build more trust and explore solutions to alleviate trust risks in an evolving technological environment.

Teams of Machines: “Teams of Machines” were discussed in the context of adversarial machine learning and the challenges faced when relying on machines for decision-making.  The concept of multi-level chess was mentioned, indicating the complexity of interactions between machines and adversaries.  Additionally, the potential privacy concerns related to advanced technologies that capture and analyze various biological and behavioral data were highlighted.  The discussion shed light on the evolving landscape of machine teams and the need to navigate ethical, security, and trust-related considerations.

What Next?

What can Individuals do to Sort out Reality?

Individuals can take several steps to sort out reality in today’s complex world. One approach is to be cautious about trusting information, particularly on social media platforms.  Seeking out communities and building actual human relationships with people you know can help establish trust .  Additionally, being aware of the erosion of trust and credibility, as well as the influence of AI and automated systems, is crucial.  It is important to resist the manipulation tactics that aim to create division and conflict.  Seeking diverse perspectives and engaging in critical thinking can also help individuals navigate the complexities of reality.  Finally, individuals should be mindful of the potential for misinformation and impersonation, especially in the digital space.  By adopting these strategies, individuals can work towards a clearer understanding of reality.

Generative AI and the Future of Trust

Generative AI and trust have a complex relationship. Generative AI, such as ChatGPT, is disrupting businesses and content creation, creating a wealth of data that humans cannot generate organically.  However, there are concerns about the trustworthiness of generative AI content due to the lack of context codes for trust.  Misplaced trust in AI-generated content on social media platforms highlights the illusion of trust they can create.  Building trust in generative AI involves listening to diverse ideas, seeking communities, and understanding the issues on the fly.  The potential for generative AI to enable new models for business and governance through blockchain innovation was also explored.

Disruptive Technology and the Future of Trust

Disruptive technology and the future of trust are intertwined. The decline of trust in institutions due to factors like performance, corruption, and incompetence has led to the need for solutions. Trust threats arise as individuals migrate platforms and technologies generate indistinguishable content.  However, disruptive technology can also provide solutions, such as building trust in teams of machines and seeking out diverse ideas.  The ancient Herculaneum scrolls were recently decoded by AI.  But do we trust this final product?  The relationship between disruptive technology and the future of trust involves addressing trust issues while leveraging innovative approaches to rebuild and maintain trust in a rapidly evolving digital landscape while acknowledging that there is a previously existent human bureaucratic system of trust.  

The Location of People in the Circle of Trust Matters

The location of people in the circle of trust can have an impact on trust dynamics. It is important to seek out diverse ideas and listen to people to build trust.  The location of individuals in the circle of trust may affect their trustworthiness and loyalty.

Trustworthiness versus Loyalty

Trustworthiness and loyalty are distinct concepts. Trustworthiness refers to the quality of being reliable, honest, and dependable. It involves having credibility and being trustworthy in one’s actions and words.  On the other hand, loyalty relates to a strong sense of commitment, faithfulness, and allegiance towards a person, organization, or cause.  Loyalty entails staying devoted and supportive, even in challenging situations.  While trustworthiness focuses on being trustworthy, loyalty emphasizes steadfast dedication. Both traits are valuable in relationships, but they differ in their core characteristics.

What are the Things we can do to Build more Trust?

To build more trust, the panelists offered several strategies which can be employed:

1. First, it is important to recognize the issues at hand and be open to addressing them.
2. Additionally, listening to people and considering diverse ideas can help foster trust.
3. Building trust in teams of machines and ensuring their trustworthiness is another aspect to consider.
4. Avoiding the spread of misinformation, especially on social media platforms, is crucial in maintaining trust; and
5. Finally, seeking out actual human relationships and communities, and resisting the division caused by online experiences, can also contribute to building trust.

For the program notes for this session, see OODAcon 2023 – Zero Trust Societies and Disruptive Technologies

The full agenda for OODacon 2023 can be found here – Welcome to OODAcon 2023: Final Agenda and Event Details – including a a full description of each session, expanded speakers bios (with links to current projects and articles about the speakers) and additional OODA Loop resources on the theme of each panel.

OODAcon 2023: Event Summary and Imperatives For Action

Download a summary of OODAcon including useful observations to inform your strategic planning, product roadmap and drive informed customer conversations.  This summary, based on the dialog during and after the event, also invites your continued input on these many dynamic trends.  See:  OODAcon 2023: Event Summary and Imperatives For Action.