The annual OODA Global Risk Briefing was the penultimate session at OODAcon 2023.

Jen Hoar spoke with Johnny Sawyer about the strategic prism business leaders need to apply to the geopolitical risk environment.  Following are the insights from the discussion.

Note:  This conversation was held on October 25, 2023 and is consistent with the concepts discussed below, specifically that “the prism on the statements made below has shifted dramatically” based on how events have unfolded since late October. 

With that, the overall strategic advice re: business communications techniques  – and mitigating risk vis a vis geopolitical events – remain prescient, vital and strategically “evergreen.” 

“…the main takeway from this OODAcon 2023 briefing:  Geopolitics is the world’s biggest risk.”

‘You may not be interested in Geopolitics, but geopolitics is interested in you’:   Sawyer opened the conversation and ended it with the recommendation that we all, individuals and organizations, may feel helpless to do anything to impact or “help” those impacted by conflict and violence. But the main point of this discussion is everyone and every organization need to start with acknowledging that the fundamental civic duty of organizations and individuals alike is to real engage geopolitics in a very sophisticated way, putting in the effort to make sure you are really sorting through the “kompromat” and a poisoned cognitive infrastructure in the U.S.: “You are doing your part if you are making that effort alone.”

He made clear that this conversation is designed to focus on business communications challenges as discussed by the OODA Network over the last year – and designed to have value for OODAcon attendees:  “This is not to discount all of our human, individual responses to these recent tragedies, conflicts, and uncertainties.  It has all been deeply affecting for all of us.”  

October 7, 2023:   When commenting on the barbarity of the attack on Israel by Hamas, Sawyer shared that ” It is hard not to think you are staring evil in the face.”  

Business Leaders and Strategic Communications on Geopolitical Events:  If you make a statement on fast-moving, current events, keep in mind that your current prism on your statement will shift dramatically.  Clearly, saying nothing can convey a message or “response” in and of itself. Business leaders need to weigh the risk of silence, but generally Sawyer recommended that “if the business leader is not a subject matter expert on the specific event at hand, there is really no need to make a statement.”  JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon, for example, has decided to go out with a strategic communications statement that reinforces and points other business leaders to the main takeway from this OODAcon 2023 briefing:  “Geopolitics is the world’s biggest risk.”

The conflict between Russia and Ukraine should serve as a reminder of lessons learned from the fast moving, unique, unanticipated variables these conflicts present on a day to day basis.

Directly addressing -mis, -disinformation:  If misinformation related to the geopolitical climate (or misinformation which is directly related to your industry sector, brand equity and/or brand awareness) requires an attempt at a public “correction”, Sawyer recommends the following steps:

“…tread lightly: less is more and always revisit the question of whether a statement is absolutely necessary at all.”

1. Keep in mind first reports of an event always inaccurate at some level – but provide a  powerful initial “framing of events”
2. Be aware that it is hard to turn people away from that initial framing of the event;  and
3. If you or your organization needs to make a public comment:

• • Have your counter narrative ready;
  • Provide quantifiable facts and statistics; and
  • Overall, tread lightly: less is more and always revisit the question of whether a statement is absolutely necessary at all.

Geopolitical Events and Employee Voices:    The importance of allowing employees to express themselves freely was discussed – as it underscores that employees are individuals with voices. Employees statements are their own, of course, but the business problem arises if employee statements are public facing on social media and are clearly defamatory or clearly inappropriate.

The potential of Israel/Hamas expanding into a wider conflict?:  The potential of Israel and Hamas expanding into a wider conflict has a high risk for miscalculation, as no one wants a wider war, especially both the Sunni and Shia partisans in the Middle East. But geopolitical challenges like this require information sharing and understanding the changing pace of technology.  The conflict between Russia and Ukraine should serve as a reminder of lessons learned from the fast moving, unique, unanticipated variables these conflicts present on a day to day basis.

“For those of us who work in this space…and for business leaders, the main message…was ‘information sharing is vital.'”

“Five Eyes” intelligence leaders warn of China’s global espionage campaign:  The leaders of the “Five Eyes” made an unprecedented joint appearance on 60 Minutes the weekend before OODAcon 2023 – warning of the global threat China represented, pointing out vast surveillance and espeionage capabilities and the intellectual property theft that has already been impactful to date.  Sawyer reinforced the following insights from the statement by the Five Eyes leaders:  “This choice of venue for this statement by the Five Eyes to the American people and businss community is ‘You may not be interested in Geopolitics, but geopolitics is interested in you.’  For those of us who work in this space, and for business leaders, the main message I think was “information sharing is vital.”

For business leaders, working in China can be associated with mixed messages and challenges:  Working in China requires careful consideration and understanding of the evolving geopolitical landscape and its potential impacts on businesses.  The need for information sharing and treading lightly was emphasized.There have been adjustments made by China that businesses need to be aware of when operating there. U.S. business leaders gave up alot when they accepted China’s conditions to work there.  The conditions set by China could led to quick profits initially, but now the impacts are being realized.  It is important to understand the geopolitical implications of working in China and the potential risks involved.   Additionally, there are concerns about China’s actions related to research, intellectual property, information acquisition, data manipulation, human targeting, and property acquisition – all in support of their national objectives and “discourse power” efforts globally.  

Technological advancements, particularly in areas like satellites, during this ongoing conflict point to the need to understand the changing role of technology in both kinetic warfare and cyber warfare.  

Russia and Ukraine:  What is on your mind right now that is being overlooked?: The conflict between Russia and Ukraine, of course, is currently a significant concern. Sawyer was declarative on this conflict:  “What is being overlooked is that the war in Europe is the opening salvo in how we are fighting conflict in the 21st Century.”

Understanding the pace of this change and looking to how technology is being integrated into the conflict is crucial. Countries are also seeking alternatives to sanctions impacts.  This geopolitical challenge is an example of intersection of great power competition and information technology innovation in a hybrid war context:  “The old ways do not work, and new rules have not been written. There is a need to learn lessons from conflict.”  Technological advancements, particularly in areas like satellites, during this ongoing conflict point to the need to understand the changing role of technology in both kinetic warfare and cyber warfare.  

For the program notes for this session, see OODA Global Risk Briefing.

The full agenda for OODacon 2023 can be found here – Welcome to OODAcon 2023: Final Agenda and Event Details – including a a full description of each session, expanded speakers bios (with links to current projects and articles about the speakers) and additional OODA Loop resources on the theme of each panel.

OODAcon 2023: Event Summary and Imperatives For Action

Download a summary of OODAcon including useful observations to inform your strategic planning, product roadmap and drive informed customer conversations.
This summary, based on the dialog during and after the event, also invites your continued input on these many dynamic trends.  See:  OODAcon 2023: Event Summary and Imperatives For Action.