The Federal Government continues to teeter on the brink of constitutional crisis and threats of violence from foreign and domestic actors – while showing really positive signs of innovation and thoughtful regulation and engagement on exponential technologies like quantum science, artificial intelligence, and biotechnology (including ongoing private sector interest and investment in (and the establishment of further VC funding for) national security investment and American competitiveness.    

Summary

The United States Federal Government still operates in the shadow of seminal events we itemized in the 2022 Federal Year-end Review, namely:

• What began on January 6, 2021 (in the chambers and halls of the United States Capitol with an unprecedented attack on the seat of government) culminated (almost two years to the date) in December of 2022 (in those same chambers and halls of the Capitol building) with the submission of the final report by the Select Committee to Investigate the January 6^th Attacks on the United States Capitol, complete with the historically unprecedented criminal referral of a former U. S. President to the Department of Justice with accusations of “obstructing an official proceeding, conspiracy to defraud the government, and inciting or assisting an insurrection.”  Over the course of 2023, these events were integrated into the presidential electoral process going into 2024;  and 
• Democracy Under Attack at Home and Abroad: The Congressional report and criminal referral process are only a symbolic ending of the threat of violent domestic terrorism in the U.S., according to a DHS National Terrorism Advisory System Bulletin in November 2022 (a bulletin which remained in effect through May of 2023 and was extended through November 2023),  as the “United States remains in a heightened threat environment.” In early 2023, the DHS bulletin also highlighted the role of foreign influence, particularly from Russia, in seeding unrest in the United States. 

While the November 2023 Advisory System Bulletin was not extended into 2024 (we are currently operating without such an advisory in place by DHS), in November 2023  CISA launched the Shields Ready Campaign for Critical Infrastructure Security and Resilience and federal officials voiced concerns that he U.S. continues to see heightened threats of violence, and FBI Director Christopher Wray has warned of “violent extremists” in the U.S. and abroad…drawing inspiration from Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack on Israel.  In late 20234, “FBI Director Christopher Wray testified…before the House Committee on Homeland Security, saying that ‘in a year where the terrorism threat was already elevated, the ongoing war in the Middle East has raised the threat of an attack against Americans in the United States to a whole ‘nother level.'”  

The Beltway 2023

The federal government continued to grapple with the following issues simultaneously over the course of 2023:

• Economic policy to address the economic downturn and the global supply chain issues caused by the duration of the pandemic; 
• The indictments, arrests, and testimonies provided by law enforcement and the January 6th House Committee;
• The mis- and disinformation, information disorder, and cyberwar ecosystem.
• War conditions in Europe and, since the October 7, 2023 Hamas attack, war conditions in the Middle East;  
• Climate change and extreme weather crises and emergencies; and
• Tragic mass shootings.  

During this holiday season last year in 2022,  the travel season was impacted by a bomb cyclone, and arctic blast conditions brought on by climate change, stranding thousands of domestic air passengers for days, with 28 casualties  – and  “tripledemic” was proclaimed around rising Covid, influenza and RSV cases in America. 

In 2023, the travel season saw some of the highest rates of travel in U.S. history with major storms but without the same climate change-induced major climate events causing major delays or casualties. 

And while there have been reports of hospital surges in the last few weeks, Covid 19, in particular, has shifted to an endemic patterns (with many a co-worker, family friend or family member calling in a cancellation or inability to attend an event due to Covid-19 positivity with mild symptoms).

Strong Strategic Innovation, Legislation and Regulatory Frameworks Continued to Emerge in December 2023

DoD Chief Digital and AI Office (CDAO) to Host BRAVO 11 Multi-classification Hackathon:  The Office of the Secretary of Defense Chief Digital and AI Office (CDAO), Defense Innovation Unit (DIU), U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, U.S. Army Pacific Command and the U.S. Air Force will host a multi-classification hackathon – BRAVO 11 – open to all U.S. citizens, Feb. 5 – 9, 2024. Registration is open, details here. 

The First FDA Approved CRISPR-based Medicine and the First Programmable, Logical Quantum Processor:  The next ten years will be marked by all the uncertainties and unintended consequences that underpin so many doom and gloom scenarios.  It is time to start tracking the abundance and breakthroughs that will also come fast and furious in the next decade – equally as overwhelming, while also breathtaking, positive, highly technical and scientific – and transformative. Here are a couple of those recent “firsts.”

The Latest Developments from DARPA’s AIxCC and NATO’s DIANA:  As we discussed at OODAcon 2023, historically unprecedented technological disruption is now well underway on an exponentially accelerated timeline. The challenge now is activating positive outcomes while mitigating risk (ideally, with an eye towards proactive containment of unintended consequences by way of preventative strategies). Grand Challenges and Innovation Accelerators will be central to these global efforts. Following are the recent developments from DARPA’s AI Cyber Challenge (AIxCC) and NATO’s Defence Innovation Accelerator for the North Atlantic (DIANA).

Allied Nations’ Quantum Industrial Base and the Reauthorization of the U.S. National Quantum Initiative:  As allies and adversaries alike are actively making sizable investments in quantum systems, the U.S. will need to maintain momentum to secure a global leadership position in quantum science. Following is an ecosystem assessment and an update on USG legislative efforts for maintaining American strategic competitiveness through the National Quantum Initiative Act.  

November 2023 

The Latest Installment of CISA’s “Secure Tomorrow” Toolkit for Scenario Planning and Foresight Strategy:  The Secure Tomorrow Series is a strategic foresight capability focused on anticipating future risk drivers, critical uncertainties, and trends—such as aging infrastructure, global pandemics, and emerging technologies— to help enhanced organizational resiliency to be robust against future uncertainties. The second installment of the toolkit was made available in 2023.  

Summary of Terrorism Threat to the United States (May 2023- November 2023): DHS National Terrorism Advisory System Bulletin (Summary of Terrorism Threat to the United States ) from May of this year is still in effect through the end of November.  The next bulletin  – if released – is sure to include an update on the increase in foreign terrorism threats based on the conflict in the Middle East.  For now, the FBI has the most recent call for vigilance this holiday season – details of which can also be found here.     

Space Force’s Vital Work on Standards for Digital Twins and Global Supply Chain Resiliency: Fast on the heels of Lisa Costa (Chief Technology and Innovation Officer of the US Space Force) taking the time to joining us at OODAcon 2023, for a discussion of The New Space Rush, following are some space operations and innovation initiatives of which Space Force is taking a lead. 

The Latest Developments in the Ongoing Implementation of the Chips and Science Act of 2022:  We continue to pursue our tracking efforts based on the strategic insights garnered from the OODA Stratigame – Scenario Planning for Global Computer Chip Supply Chain Disruption, including the fact that public/private partnership and strategic governmental subsidies figured prominently in competent foresight strategy as it relates the future of the global computer chip supply chain, national security, and American competitiveness.   Folllowing are the latest implementation developments based on the passage of the the CHIPS and Science Act in August of 2022.  

The Future of the Pentagon is Digital Engineering – and Formula One Racing-style “Prowess at this New Statecraft”:  Will Roper is the former Assistant Secretary of the Air Force for Acquisition, Technology, & Logistics. He is currently on the advisory committee for the Defense Innovation Board and, since he founded the company in 2022, is the CEO of Istari, Inc. To coin a phrase, Roper is part of the “AFWERX Mafia” that has branched out into the NatSec innovation ecosystem to found companies – thinking really differently about classic procurement and acquisition challenges – and the tough tech and deep tech opportunities ahead. 

Are Computer Chip-based “Chokepoints” the Future of AI Compute, National Security and American Competitiveness?:  National Security policy and cybersecurity innovation at the physical layer  – to solve some of the vexing security issues and as a strategic opportunity for technological advantage and American competitiveness – is starting to show an interesting sensemaking pattern across a variety of industry sectors and think tank sources. Take a look here.

The Ukrainian Brave1 Technology Cluster:  An accelerator for Ukrainian unmanned aircrafy systems (UAS), known as Brave1, figures prominently in the efforts at public/private partnership and defense tech innovation in Ukraine. Details here – including how your organization can partner with the effort or submit a solution for consideration by the Brave1 accelerator. 

October 2023

• What the White House executive order on AI means for cybersecurity leaders
• White House Executive Order on AI Provides Guidelines for AI Privacy and Safety
• The Future Now: The State of the Bioeconomy in 2023
• The Future of Blockchain Security, National Security, Cybersecurity, and Health Security
• The New Space Rush: The Final Frontier for the Economy and National Security
• In the Era of Code, Generative AI Represents National Security Risks and Opportunities for “Innovation Power”
• General Milley on the OODA Loop decision making process and Artificial Intelligence

September 2023

• What is the United States Information Strategy?
• The Leadership Required To Take Full Advantage of Emerging Technology
• Artificial Intelligence and the Future of Human Diplomacy
• The Future of Biosafety and the Global Gain-of-Function Research Ecosystem

August 2023

• The U.S. National Intelligence Strategy Seeks to Squeeze China via Partnerships
• The Executive’s Guide To Quantum Computing: What you need to know for your strategy today
• Will the SEC’s “Private Fund Adviser Rule” Stifle National Security Investment and Innovation?
• Space Force Squadron Activated to Target Adversary Satellites
• What To Do About The U.S. Intelligence Community Warning on Safeguarding The Space Industry
• DoD CDAO’s “Task Force Lima” to Explore Responsible Fielding of Generative AI Capabilities
• “The Taiwan Scenario” and Cyberattacks on Civilian Critical Infrastructures
• Ransomware Attacks in U.S. and Cyberattacks in Pacific Islands are Battlefields in Global Cyber War

July 2023

• The GAO on the Future of Blockchain in Finance
• The SEC Announces Final Cybersecurity Rules: What the C-Suite Needs To Know and Do
• DCVC Announces New $1 Billion Commitment and the Inaugural Deep Tech Opportunities Report
• Cybersecurity Bills for the Food and Agriculture Industry and Rural Water Systems
• Cybersecurity Bills for the Food and Agriculture Industry and Rural Water Systems
• Ripple Labs Wins A Landmark SEC Ruling and Blackrock is Bullish on Cryptocurrency-based Investment Vehicles
• OODA Salon: Examine The Future of Intelligence and Security
• Homeland Security Startup Studio: Converge 2023 – Presenting Companies and Finalists with Keynote Remarks by CISA’s Jen Easterly
• The National Cybersecurity Strategy Implementation Plan is Now Available
• The Silicon Valley Defense Group “NatSec 100”
• Deep Fakes and National Security
• The Pentagon’s Chief Digital and Artificial Intelligence Officer – One Year In
• Securing Space: The Next Frontier for Cybersecurity Education and Workforce Development
• Forget a Cyber Force, CYBERCOM is Doing Just Fine

June 2023

• CISO receives Wells Notice From The SEC: What corporate directors should know and do
• Will the New DoJ National Security Cyber Section Bite or Just Bark?
• Real DoD Traction on Rapid Acquisition, Overhauling Procurement and Commercial Tech Innovation – Including $1B for the Defense Innovation Unit
• Is it Time for an “AI NTSB”? The Artificial Intelligence Incident Database May Already Foot the Bill
• FTC Data Shows Text-based Bank Impersonation is Most-Reported Scam; Agency Head Khan Warns of AI ‘Turbocharging’ Scams
• A “Faster, Secure Pipeline”: DoD Signals Awareness of the Challenges Faced by Small Business Tech Contractors
• Domestic Political Extremism in the U.S.: Situational Awareness for June 13, 2023
• The Latest DoD “Accelerate the Procurement and Fielding of Innovative Technologies” (APFIT) Pilot Projects
• Federal Deadlines for Updates to Known Exploited Vulnerabilities and Zero-days Patches

May 2023

• NIST Wants Your Input Now on Two Strategic Challenges: Adversarial Machine Learning and Protecting Controlled Unclassified Information (CUI)
• a16z Announces $500 Million Commitment to American Dynamism Investment Portfolio
• Is the “General Deterrence Theory” Up to the Challenge of Domestic Political Extremism?
• NIST on Blockchain and Cybersecurity at the Physical Layer (Access Control Systems)
• Zapata and L3Harris Deliver Thirty Quantum Computing Challenge Scenarios to DARPA
• The National Cybersecurity Strategy and the Future of “Coordinated Vulnerability Disclosure Across All Technology Types and Sectors”
• The Stifling of the U.S. Crypto Innovation Ecosystem has Begun – While the EU Takes the Lead Globally
• Adapting, Building, and Cultivating a Defense-Focused Workforce for the Challenges of 2025 and Beyond

April 2023

• Executive Order Bans U.S. Government Use of Commercial Spyware
• USG Projects at Speed and Scale: The Disadvantages of OTA and Securing the Emerging Technology Supply Chain
• Stronger Together – Day One of RSAC 2023: Lessons Learned from Two Years of CISA JCDC Public/Private Collaboration
• OODA Senior Advisor and Network Member Chris Ward on Startups, SMBs, Innovation and the DoD Other Transaction Authority
• Did Airman Teixeira Give You Concern? Just Wait For The Metaverse
• An Introductory Q&A with OODA Senior Advisor and Network Member Chris Ward
• The Recent Pentagon Leak is as Much a Generational Story as it is a National Security Breach
• Is a Surge in U.S. Defense Industrial Capacity Possible?
• The U.S. Turns Strategic Focus Towards Cyber Threat Vectors in Guam, Albania, and Costa Rica
• CISA’s Pilot Ransomware Warning System and Pre-Ransomware Notification Initiative

March 2023 

• The Pentagon is Strategically Positioned to Address SVB Bank Failure and Tech Startup Innovation
• Another Daunting Dispatch from the Ministry of the Future: ConocoPhillips’ Project Willow Will Freeze Melting Artic
• Tik Tok and the Future of American Data Privacy
• What Corporate Directors Need To Know About Coming SEC Cybersecurity Rules
• SpaceX Successfully launches NASA Dragon 6 Crew on flight to International Space Station
• DoD’s Office of Strategic Capital Assesses “Impacts to National Security” of the Collapse of Silicon Valley Bank
• Are the Governance of Machine Learning and the Future of Space One and the Same?
• What Executives Need To Know About The Annual Threat Assessment from the U.S. Intelligence Community
• Envisioning the Future of the Cyber Workforce
• The OODA Network on the 2023 National Cybersecurity Strategy
• The Missing Piece of the National Cybersecurity Strategy
• Will a New Cyber Director Plus a New Cyber Strategy Equal a New Result?
• CISA Releases Red Team Assessment on Critical Infrastructure

February 2023 

• CISA JCDC Sets 2023 Planning Agenda
• Thomas Tull Chairs the $5 Billion US Innovative Technology Fund; Shield AI among Early Investments
• The DoD Cyber Workforce Strategy: Deploying an Agile, Capable, and Ready Cyber Workforce
• The Current Debate on ‘Forging the Defense Industrial Base for the Digital Age’
• The Disintermediation and/or Self-cannibalization of the Defense Industrial Base
• Emerging Technologies and Crypto-Assets on the List of SEC’s 2023 Examination Priorities
• Emerging Tech Talent, Human Targeting, Cyber Workforce Development, STEM Stay Rates and National Security
• Exponential Innovation and Building the Bioeconomy of the Future
• Defense Innovation Board Study on Strategic Investment Capital (Call for Interviews)
• The DoD’s Office of Strategic Capital Launches Small Business Initiative; America’s Frontier Fund Forms Strategic Innovation Group

January 2023

• Crypto Enforcement Actions, the SEC Crypto Assets and Cyber Unit, and National Security Risk
• Internet Shutdowns Are Increasing – And That’s Bad News for Everyone
• Accelerating Technology For Use In Governments: From theory to execution
• The Fusion of Special and Cyber Forces Makes Sense
• The 3rd Annual Report of The National Quantum Initiative
• In Late December 2022, President Biden Signed Quantum Cybersecurity Preparedness Act into Law
• Space and the Future of National Security and Cybersecurity/