Start your day with intelligence. Get The OODA Daily Pulse.
Informing your decisions with actionable intelligence
Start your day with intelligence. Get The OODA Daily Pulse.
Informing your decisions with actionable intelligence
In this, the fifth installment in our “Dispatches from the Ministry for the Future” series, we take the time to do more of a deep dive into the speculative fiction/science fiction novel that inspired this eponymous series of posts – followed by details of the farmer protest that have broken out all over the EU in the last year or so. In the What Next? section of this post: Utopian and dystopian OODA Loop scenarios based on the searing, completely plausible narrative of our potential global future that is so powerfully rendered in the pages of “The Ministry for the Future.”
Regions facing increased frequency and severity of weather, rising sea levels, and economic and human costs will seek to disrupt the asymmetry of weather with novel approaches.
Weather Wars: Of all the books OODA CEO Matt Devost has read over the past years, the stickiest has been “The Ministry for the Future” which contemplates the duality of conflict and innovation to address the realities of global climate change. This Gray Rhino risk suffers from mitigation dependencies that rely on global cooperation around accepted behaviors. In the absence of those behaviors, might some countries disadvantaged by geography and thus suffering from disproportionate impacts consider themselves engaged in weather wars and thus look to use instruments like sanctions and sabotage?
Robinson’s work is a testament to the power of science fiction as a narrative strategy, not just to entertain but to enlighten and inspire action.
“The Ministry for the Future” by Kim Stanley Robinson is a compelling and meticulously researched narrative that weaves together the existential threats of climate change with the socio-political mechanisms that could be mobilized to combat it. The novel opens with a harrowing heatwave in India that claims millions of lives, catalyzing the creation of the titular Ministry for the Future, a UN agency tasked with advocating for the world’s future generations and addressing the root causes of climate change.
Robinson’s narrative is not just a tapestry of despair but a blueprint for hope, exploring a wide array of technological, economic, and social innovations that could steer humanity away from the brink of ecological catastrophe. The book delves into:
Central to the novel is the character of Mary Murphy, the head of the Ministry, who embodies the pragmatic and determined spirit required to navigate the complex geopolitical landscape and drive the necessary changes. Through her eyes, we see the potential for a coalition of nations, NGOs, activists, and even rogue elements to forge a path forward. The world-building in “The Ministry for the Future” is not only a hallmark of Robinson’s skill as a writer but serves as a critical character in its own right, shaping the plot and providing a vivid backdrop against which the drama of humanity’s fight for survival unfolds.
The impact of “The Ministry for the Future” on OODA Loop research and our editorial filters and prisms is that we allow the strength of the narrative presented in the book to inform our pattern recognition of edge cases and clear early warning signals that map to the future depicted in the book. The societal conditions in the book ring so intuitively true – backed by scientific research and provocative, deeply human detail – it makes sense to assume that early and medium-term “developments” will start manifesting as early as, well, the present day – which will then progress to the late-stage polycrisis environment as depicted in the book.
The narrative, while speculative, serves as a reminder of the real-world challenges faced by farmers in Europe and globally as they navigate the uncertain terrain of a changing climate.
When reflecting on plausible scenarios of systemic societal failure brought on by climate change, Robinson’s novel offers a vision of how self-organizing networks and innovative solutions can emerge into global crises. It underscores the importance of international cooperation, technological innovation, and grassroots activism in confronting the challenges posed by climate change.
The impact of climate change on European farmers is depicted through a lens that magnifies both the immediate and cascading effects of environmental shifts on agriculture. The novel, while fictional, draws upon a rich tapestry of scientific understanding and speculative projection to illustrate a future where European agriculture faces a spectrum of challenges due to climate change:
The narrative woven by Robinson, while speculative, serves as a poignant reminder of the real-world challenges faced by farmers in Europe and globally as they navigate the uncertain terrain of a changing climate. It calls attention to the urgent need for adaptive strategies that bolster the resilience of agricultural systems against the backdrop of environmental upheaval.
The question then becomes, how do these fictional challenges compare to the actual experiences of European farmers contending with the realities of climate change?
Our research perspective – informed by speculative fiction – led us to this analysis we offered in December 2022, The Water Wars in France Eerily Resemble Scenes from The Ministry for the Future:
“Like a lost chapter from Kim Stanley Robinson’s now seminal near-future science fiction novel The Ministry for the Future, reporting from Info France 2, Collectif Bassines Non-Merci, Le Huffington Post, Midi Libre, France24, The New York Times, and Le Monde details the recent clashes in the French western region of Nouvelle-Aquitaine (and other parts of the country) to water scarcity brought on by drought conditions in France. At issue: the future of water management and government policy and projects guided by the French government’s deployment of a controversial “mega-basin” strategy.”
When looking at the challenges depicted in “The Ministry for the Future” through our strategic foresight-driven filters, it becomes evident that the real-world impacts of climate change on agriculture in Europe today mirror many of the issues raised in the novel. From the increasing unpredictability of weather patterns to the pressures on water resources and soil health, the parallels are striking.
Already this year, The EU is struggling politically and policy-wise with the strategic implications of climate change, and European farmers have begun to take collective action:
Farmers have in recent weeks railed against several EU rules, including those aimed at reducing emissions.
An analysis from Tim McDonnell at SEMAFOR:
…although most of the issues farmers are currently protesting have more to do with biodiversity protections and the war in Ukraine than they do with climate goals, politicians seen as favoring environmentalists over farmers put their reelection chances in June — when a bevy of countries, local authorities, and the European Parliament are up for elections — at risk.
Rather than try to outcompete the U.S. on tax incentives, the EU’s Net-Zero Industry Act plays to the bloc’s strengths by focusing on the bureaucracy surrounding the energy transition: construction and grid connection permits, and procurement contracts. The main function of the law — which still needs to be adopted by the European Parliament and the EU’s 27 member states — is to give priority access to climate infrastructure: solar, wind, batteries, hydrogen electrolyzers, grid hardware, and the materials needed to build them, like steel. The ultimate goal, the European Commission recommended…should be for the EU to cut its carbon footprint 90% below 1990 levels by 2040. It’s at about 32% now. But analysts say the rules don’t go far enough to meet that target, especially after policymakers scrapped sustainability measures targeting the agriculture sector under election-year pressure from tractor-wielding farmers across Europe.
Europe’s approach to industrial policy has one big advantage over the U.S.: It can be more proactive about clearing red tape from the infrastructure permitting process, which continues to be one of the biggest bottlenecks for clean energy stateside. But like the U.S., the EU continues to struggle with how to navigate the fact that cheap cleantech imports from China help domestic installers and retailers, but hurt domestic manufacturers. The E.U’s reversal on agriculture offers a preview of the struggle that the U.S. and many other countries will face in the years ahead about how to cut the carbon footprint of farming, which is on track to be Europe’s largest source of emissions by 2040 but which has seen far slower progress in decarbonizing than sectors like electricity or transport.
“Farmer protests across the continent have triggered a rollback of ambitious rules aimed at cutting greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture.”
For weeks, a range of farmers’ groups has taken to the streets across Europe, blocking highways with tractors, throwing firecrackers at the police, and erecting barricades that have caused major transportation disruptions in Berlin, Brussels, and Paris. They’re angry about many things. Some frustration is directed at national leaders and proposals to reduce agricultural diesel subsidies in France and Germany. Some of it is directed at E.U.-wide proposals like cuts to the use of nitrogen fertilizer (which is made from fossil fuels). Farmers are also angry at trade deals that permit the import of agricultural commodities from countries that don’t have the same environmental protections. And some farmers want more government aid as they reel from the effects of extreme weather exacerbated by climate change.
The protests embody the failure to win over farmers on the road to more sustainable agriculture, said Tim Benton, who heads the environment program at Chatham House, a research institution based in London. “This is a wider case of how, if we are to transition to sustainability, we need to invest more in ‘just transitions’ to take people along and allow them to feel better off, not penalized,” he said.
The farmers’ protests in Europe are a harbinger of the next big political challenge in global climate action: How to grow food without further damaging Earth’s climate and biodiversity. On Tuesday, after weeks of intense protests in several cities across the continent, came the most explicit sign of that difficulty. The European Union’s top official, Ursula von der Leyen, abandoned an ambitious bill to reduce the use of chemical pesticides and softened the European Commission’s next raft of recommendations on cutting agricultural pollution.
The farmers argue they’re being hit from all sides: high fuel costs, green regulations, unfair competition from producers in countries with fewer environmental restrictions. Nonetheless, agriculture accounts for 30 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions, and the European Union can’t meet its ambitious climate targets, enshrined in law, without making dramatic changes to its agricultural system, including how farmers use chemical pesticides and fertilizers, as well as its vast livestock industry. Agriculture accounts for just over 1 percent of the European economy and employs 4 percent of its population. But it gets one-third of the E.U. budget, mostly as subsidies.
“Unsatisfied, the farmers say they will continue the disruptions to call attention to what they call the insufferable hardships.”
Jérôme Bayle had spent seven nights on a major French highway, leading a group of aggrieved farmers in protest, when the prime minister arrived, dressed in his Parisian blue suit and tie, to thank them for “making France proud” and announced he would meet their demands. Before camera flashes and outstretched microphones, Mr. Bayle told Prime Minister Gabriel Attal that he had seen the standoff as a match between two teams — the revolting farmers, led by Mr. Bayle, and the government, led by Mr. Attal.
Mr. Bayle, 42, a former professional rugby player, is widely credited with sparking a national protest movement of farmers that this week brought their grievances to the capital, blocking highways into Paris, despite fresh pledges on Tuesday from Mr. Attal to shield them from “unfair competition.” Unsatisfied, the farmers say they will continue the disruptions to call attention to what they call the insufferable hardships of growing food to feed the French nation.
It has been a terrible few years for local farmers. First, they were hit by repeated droughts, and the collapse of consumer demand for organic food after many farmers had made the difficult switch. Then, a disease-carrying midge crossed over the nearby snowcapped Pyrenees from Spain and infected many of their cattle, causing death and miscarriages. And that is just in Mr. Bayle’s southwest corner of the country.
Also, see further NYT coverage from January 2024 when the French protests took place:
These utopian scenarios are not mere fantasies but achievable futures, contingent upon our collective will and ingenuity.
Utopian scenarios for addressing climate change, while inherently optimistic, are not beyond the realm of possibility. They require a harmonious blend of innovation, policy, and global cooperation, aiming not just to mitigate the impacts of climate change but to forge a path towards a sustainable future:
Scenario #1…involves a breakthrough in zero-carbon energy technologies, such as nuclear fusion or advanced solar photovoltaic systems, that are scalable, affordable, and capable of meeting global energy demands without contributing to greenhouse gas emissions. Imagine a world where energy is not only clean but abundant, powering everything from homes to industries without the specter of carbon pollution. This would fundamentally alter our relationship with energy, transitioning from a source of geopolitical tension and environmental degradation to a catalyst for unprecedented global development.
In parallel, Scenario #2 would see the development and deployment of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies play a critical role in reversing the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere: Techniques ranging from direct air capture to enhanced weathering could, in theory, not only halt but reverse climate change, restoring atmospheric CO2 levels to pre-industrial concentrations. The success of such technologies would hinge on global cooperation and investment, underscoring the importance of international governance structures that incentivize and facilitate their widespread adoption.
Scenario #3: The transformation of agricultural practices and food systems offers another avenue toward a utopian future: By leveraging biotechnology, precision agriculture, and sustainable practices, we can enhance food security, reduce the environmental footprint of agriculture, and sequester carbon in the soil. This would involve a shift towards diets that are not only healthier but more sustainable, reducing the demand for resource-intensive foods and minimizing waste. AI will play a role as well. See: Romanian state agency turns to AI to help farmers tap EU funds.
In Scenario #4, Urban planning and infrastructure development also play a pivotal role in this utopian vision: Cities, reimagined as hubs of sustainability, could integrate green spaces, renewable energy sources, and efficient public transportation systems to reduce emissions and improve the quality of life. The adoption of smart technologies and the Internet of Things (IoT) would enable real-time management of resources, optimizing energy and water use, and reducing waste. In these newly formed hubs of sustainability and their networked environs, the empowerment of individuals and communities through education and technology would foster a global culture of sustainability and resilience. By cultivating an understanding of the interconnectedness of human and natural systems, we can inspire collective action and innovation that transcends borders and generations.
These utopian scenarios are not mere fantasies but achievable futures, contingent upon our collective will and ingenuity. They underscore the potential of human creativity and cooperation in overcoming the greatest challenges of our time. How will your organization respond to such utopian scenarios? What actions can be taken now?
The recent farmer protests all over Europe are a plot point in and part of the timeline of Scenario #3; In Scenario #4, there is a global call for the creation of what becomes “The Ministry for the Future”.
The scenarios of systemic societal failure induced by climate change are both diverse and daunting, painting a picture of a future where the very fabric of societies is tested by the relentless forces of nature, exacerbated by human activity. The impacts of climate change—ranging from severe weather events to rising sea levels and ocean acidification—pose existential threats to ecosystems, economies, and communities worldwide. These challenges are not merely environmental but deeply societal, as they strain the underpinnings of global stability and human security.
Scenario #1, one of the most vivid scenarios, involves the collapse of food systems: As climate change alters precipitation patterns and increases the frequency of extreme weather events, agricultural productivity could plummet in key grain-producing areas. This would not only drive up food prices but could also trigger widespread hoarding and disrupt the distribution of food supplies, leading to global famine. Such a scenario would likely catalyze social unrest, as seen in historical precedents where scarcity leads to violence and political upheaval.
Scenario #2 involves the mass displacement of populations due to rising sea levels and extreme weather events: Coastal megacities and regions already suffering from water scarcity are particularly vulnerable. The displacement of large populations would not only create humanitarian crises but also strain the resources and stability of host communities and countries, potentially leading to conflict. This scenario is central to the “Weather Wars” sub-theme of this year’s OODA Almanac.
Scenario #3 – The emergence of self-organizing networks formed by the human species to protest and survive: These networks, often grassroots, leverage the power of community and technology to mobilize action, share resources, and advocate for systemic change. For instance, the global movement catalyzed by the ongoing famines in the scenario mentioned earlier demonstrates how younger generations, shaped by crises like the COVID-19 pandemic, are joining together across borders to demand bold systemic change to address environmental problems. These movements are not only focused on protest but also survival, as they work to develop resilient communities capable of withstanding the impacts of climate change. The recent farmer protests all over Europe are a plot point in and part of the timeline of the narrative of this scenario.
Scenario #4 – A call for interventions involving climate geoengineering and the recognition of environmental degradation victims as “climate refugees” highlight the growing acknowledgment of the need for innovative solutions and legal frameworks to address the challenges posed by climate change: These efforts underscore the importance of international cooperation and the role of non-governmental organizations, civil society, and the private sector in forming a collective front against the existential threat of climate change. In Scenario #4, there is a global call for the creation of what becomes “The Ministry for the Future”.
These scenarios of systemic societal failure brought on by climate change underscore the urgency of developing resilient infrastructures, fostering international cooperation, and embracing innovative solutions to mitigate the impacts and ensure the survival of societies in the face of unprecedented challenges. How will your organization respond to such dystopian scenarios? What actions can be taken now?
NOTE: This OODA Loop Original Analysis was partially generated with the cognitive augmentation of and in collaboration with ALTzero Project – MattGPT.
Previous Installments in our Dispatches from the Ministry for the Future Series:
The Future of the Climate Crisis – Recent Impacts and Promising Innovation Strategies: While cyberwars may continue to take center stage in the global polycrisis, the climate crisis holds a pole position, arguably only threatened in its existential threat dominance by negative prognostications of the future impact of artificial intelligence. For now, the climate crisis continues to manifest in a very future, real-world manner – with recent quantifiable impacts of record and promising innovation strategies, some technological. Details here.
“The Worst-Case Scenario is the Least Probable” and Other Cognitive Biases: Global Drought, Catastrophic Monsoons and Floods and “Zombie Ice”: Our editorial approach here at OODA Loop is an optimistic approach, based on the influence of ‘solutions-based’ journalism and a belief in the American “mission” writ large, including years of experience with deeply humble, remarkably talented people that make up American agencies, departments, and institutions. We try not to be blindly optimistic, however, and steer away from the Silicon Valley-fueled “techno-utopianism” that has us in trouble with some of the unintended consequences of the internet. OODA Network Member Dr. Lisa Porter describes” a risk-based approach that recognizes I am always making a tradeoff. And to do it with my eyes open.” We think that captures what we are trying to provide here daily. We also use scenario planning to tell the story of the future as we see it – to influence risk strategies and decision-making processes for our network members and their organizations. So, with that: Are you sitting down? Because I have some bad news, along with a mental model through which to analyze its implications.
Embracing Corporate Intelligence and Scenario Planning in an Uncertain Age: Apart from traditional competitive challenges, businesses also confront external threats, many of which are unpredictable. This environment amplifies the significance of Scenario Planning. It enables leaders to envision varied futures, thereby identifying potential risks and opportunities. All organizations, regardless of their size, should allocate time to refine their understanding of the current risk landscape and adapt their strategies. See: Scenario Planning
Networked Extremism: The digital era enables extremists worldwide to collaborate, share strategies, and self-radicalize. Meanwhile, advanced technologies empower criminals, making corruption and crime interwoven challenges for global societies. See: Converging Insurgency, Crime and Corruption
Food Security and Inflation: Food security is emerging as a major geopolitical concern, with droughts and geopolitical tensions exacerbating the issue. Inflation, directly linked to food security, is spurring political unrest in several countries. See: Food Security
Demographic Time Bomb: Industrialized nations face demographic challenges, with a growing elderly population outnumbering the working-age demographic. Countries like Japan and China are at the forefront, feeling the economic and social ramifications of an aging society. See: Global Risks and Geopolitical Sensemaking
Bitcoin’s Momentum: Bitcoin seems unstoppable due to solid mathematical foundations and widespread societal acceptance. Other cryptocurrencies like Ethereum also gain prominence. The Metaverse’s rise is closely tied to Ethereum’s universal trust layer. See: Guide to Crypto Revolution
Track Technology-Driven Disruption: Businesses should examine technological drivers and future customer demands. A multi-disciplinary knowledge of tech domains is essential for effective foresight. See: Disruptive and Exponential Technologies.
Planning for a Continuous Pandemic Landscape: COVID-19’s geopolitical repercussions are evident, with recent assessments pointing to China’s role in its spread. Regardless of the exact origins, the same conditions that allowed COVID-19 to become a pandemic persist today. Therefore, businesses must be prepared for consistent health disruptions, implying that a substantial portion of the workforce might always operate remotely, even though face-to-face interactions remain vital for critical decisions. See: COVID Sensemaking
The Inevitable Acceleration of Reshoring and its Challenges: The momentum towards reshoring, nearshoring, and friendshoring signals a global shift towards regional self-reliance. Each region will emphasize local manufacturing, food production, energy generation, defense, and automation. Reshoring is a complex process, with numerous examples of failures stemming from underestimating intricacies. Comprehensive analyses encompassing various facets, from engineering to finance, are essential for successful reshoring endeavors. See: Opportunities for Advantage
About the Author
Daniel Pereira is research director at OODA. He is a foresight strategist, creative technologist, and an information communication technology (ICT) and digital media researcher with 20+ years of experience directing public/private partnerships and strategic innovation initiatives.
Informing your decisions with actionable intelligence
Informing your decisions with actionable intelligence
