– President Felipe Calderon’s singular focus on the Gulf Cartel in December 2006 resulted in a complete restructuring of Mexican organized crime.
– The Zetas splintered from the Gulf Cartel and may have formed alliances with Leyva-Beltan Brothers and Amado Carrillo Fuentes forming a “mega-cartel”.
– Zetas to strengthen alliances with Kaibles and spread south in the medium-term.

Law enforcement and military forces have prioritized combating organized crime in Mexico since the initiation of President Felipe Calderon’s anti-drug trafficking campaign in December 2006. The campaign’s early focus singled out the Gulf Cartel and “Los Zetas,” based in Tamaulipas, in an effort that catalyzed a restructuring of Mexican organized crime and tactics.

In the late 1990s, Osiel Cardenas Guillen, former leader of the Gulf Cartel, hired 31 deserters of the Army’s elite Airborne Special Forces Groups (Gafes) as mercenaries for protection, debt collection, securing cocaine trafficking routes known as plazas, discouraging defections from the cartel, and defense from encroaching rivals, often in the form of gruesome executions. The group became known as “Los Zetas.”

• The Mexican military created the Gafes in mid-1990s in cooperation with the United States. The soldiers were trained in rapid deployment, aerial assaults, marksmanship, ambushes, intelligence collection, counter-surveillance techniques, prisoner rescues, sophisticated communications, and the art of intimidation.
The Zetas, who have maintained operational control of the Gulf Cartel since 2003, peacefully “splintered” from their original Gulf leadership in 2007, dividing up areas of control in the city of Tamaulipas. The splinter group is a three-tiered, highly sophisticated organization that includes corrupt federal, state, and local law enforcement officers, as well as civilians. In mid-2007, Zeta leader Heriberte “Lazca” Lazcano reportedly formed a new alliance with once rival Beltran-Leyva Brothers and Vincente Carillo of the Juarez cartel, often referred to as the ‘mega cartel’. Members of this new alliance employ the Zetas:

• In many ways, the original Zetas innovated paramilitary tactics utilized by organized crime groups in Mexico. Levels of violence have significantly intensified in Mexico, especially along the border, as many Gulf rivals attempted to hire former military and amass weaponry in order to maintain parity with Zeta military training and capabilities.

• On September 29, 2008, Zetas were reportedly responsible for the mass execution of 16 people in Tijuana. The following morning, additional human remains were found in a barrel of acid accompanied by a threatening message to rivals.

• On September 16, 2008, the Zetas were allegedly responsible for the Mexican Independence Day grenade attack in Morelia City, Michoacan, where eight civilians were killed and over 50 were injured (Previous Report).

Current Situation

By early 2009, many of the original 31 Zeta founders have been killed or incarcerated. The vacuum has been filled by younger men who are just as brutal, however often lack the professionalism and training of the original members. The new leadership operates a decentralized network comprised of isolated cells, or “gatekeepers,” which control certain plazas within Gulf territory. The cell-like structure limits the information any one member knows about other operatives and allows for power vacuums to be filed with little threat of a struggle.

Capabilities

Los Zetas’ training capabilities constitute its foremost asset. They set up camps to train recruits 15 to 18 years-old, as well as ex-federal, state, and local police officers. In addition, they have invited into their ranks ex-troops from Guatemala known as Kaibiles. Kaibles are a branch of the special forces of the Guatemalan Military, experts in jungle warfare and counterinsurgency.

• In March 2009, Guatemalan officials discovered a Zeta training camp near Quiche. Two commanders of the Zetas and 37 recruits fled the camp before the police and military arrived. The raid resulted in the seizure of 500 grenades, six rifles and hundreds of rounds of ammunition. The US Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) found an illegal airstrip, an obstacle course and equipment for practicing shooting at moving targets.

Although other cartels attempt to rival Zeta paramilitary training, most still do not hold the capabilities.

The Zetas have escalated the arms race among cartels in Mexico to include military-grade arsenals including the following: AR-15 and AK-47 assault rifles, MP5 submachine guns, 50-mm machine guns, hand grenades, grenade launchers, armor-piercing munitions, antitank rockets, ground-to-air missiles, dynamite, bazookas, and helicopters.

• In November 2008, the Mexican military raided a Gulf safe house in Tamaulipas and seized a cache of weapons that included: 540 riffles, 165 grenades, grenade launchers, over 500,000 rounds of ammunition and 14 sticks of dynamite.

Outlook

Despite the arrests and deaths of the original Zeta leadership, the organization will continue to dominate the drug trade in Mexico’s northeastern coast.

Cooperation with rebels from Guatemala will allow Zeta operations and training facilities to extend deeper south, facilitating the development of a new batch of leaders in jungle warfare and counterinsurgency capabilities.

In the long-term, we believe the Zetas will likely attempt to gain control over the entirety of the Gulf territories, including all plazas in Tamaulipas, resulting in renewed clashes between the group and the Mexican military.