Highlights

– Israeli and Palestinian negotiators begin codifying their positions on key issues
– Fatah-Hamas dialogue will not impact Israeli military policy in Gaza
– An Olmert resignation could signal an end to the peace process, depending on his successor
– Moment not ripe for a viable peace agreement

After more than six months of negotiation, Israeli and Palestinian negotiators announced on June 7, 2008 they are beginning to draft elements of an intended peace accord. The initiation of the process of codifying Israeli and Palestinian stances is not, however, necessarily indicative that the parties are on the verge of reaching a negotiated agreement. Rather the parties’ decision to record their positions suggests the negotiators are finding it difficult to focus on the issues at hand in the midst of Israeli and Palestinian political upheaval. By recording their positions and negotiating based on codified differences in their positions, the two sides hope to regain momentum.

Nonetheless, it is difficult to imagine focused negotiation is practicable in the midst of speculation that Israeli Prime Minister (PM) Ehud Olmert will be forced to resign, aggravation over Palestinian Prime Minister (PM) Salam Fayyad’s interference in Israel-EU negotiations, the initiation of dialogue between Fatah and Hamas, and Olmert administration threats to escalate military operations in Gaza.

Palestinian Talks

The launch of Fatah-Hamas engagement in a “process of fraternal dialogue” is welcome news for Palestinians. A peace treaty with Israel signed by either Palestinian faction without the consent of the opposing party would prove worthless. Therefore, dialogue between the two factions based on the Yemeni proposal, which includes Hamas’ relinquishment of Gazan territories to the Palestinian Authority, is a step in the right direction for the Palestinian people.

On the other hand, Israel sees the launch of Hamas-Fatah dialogue differently. It views Palestinian Authority (PA) President and Fatah leader Mahmoud Abbas’ decision to open dialogue with Hamas as an attempt to forestall a major Israeli military operation in Gaza. Given the position of President Abbas, it is likely the Israelis are right. President Abbas currently enjoys favored status among the Palestinian populace. Recent opinion polls indicate President Abbas’ approval rating is 52 percent, while Hamas leader in Gaza Haniya’s is 40 percent. Historically, however, President Abbas’ approval ratings trend downward during major Israeli operations in Gaza and fuel blockades.

Though President Abbas needs to retain public support in order for the peace process to move forward, dialogue between the Palestinian parties will not prevent Israel from striking Hamas targets or launching a full-scale invasion.

Olmert: Loss of Confidence

The overwhelming lack of public support for PM Olmert is also weighing heavily on peace negotiations. Olmert, who survived four previous corruption investigations and the Winograd Commission, told reporters he intended to step down if convicted (Previous Report). The Israeli public, however, overwhelming agree the prime minister should step down simply out of respect for his office. PM Olmert’s party, Kadima, expressed their support for the prime minister, but, behind the scenes, party leaders are settling on Foreign Minister (FM) Tzipi Livni as his potential successor. Should the party chose, it could force PM Olmert to step aside by holding primaries to choose a new Kadima leader, a battle in which Livni is the anticipated victor.

On the other hand, opinion polls indicate that should early elections be held, a Kadima-Olmert ticket would be likely defeated by Likud leader, Benjamin Netanyahu. An electoral victory by Netanyahu, who is vehemently opposed to dividing Jerusalem and “land for peace” based negotiations, would likely signal an end to progress in the peace process and Syrian-track negotiations.

However, opinion polls also indicate that a Livni led Kadima would defeat a Netanyahu led Likud in early elections. Given that FM Livni is the lead Israeli negotiator for the peace process, a win by FM Livni would allow the peace process to move forward, perhaps on steadier ground.

A Look Forward

An Israeli-Palestinian agreement on the governance of Jerusalem and “Right of Return” for Palestinian refugees is unlikely in the near term. However, whether under the leadership of PM Olmert or acting FM Livni, the Kadima party is expected to maintain power in the mid-term. Therefore, peace negotiations will move forward.

Israel will undoubtedly launch a major military operation against Hamas in Gaza in the coming months. The operation will at first destabilize the Abbas administration. However, if Israeli operations destroy major Hamas arms installations and inhibit the group’s ability to smuggle arms and financing into Gaza, the operation could force former PA Prime Minister Haniya to relinquish his claim to Gaza. In the end, dramatic change is needed on both sides of the negotiating table for the peace negotiations to yield lasting fruit.