As of June 11, 2007, the total death toll from cyclone Gonu, which made landfall in Oman on June 5 and in Iran on June 6, was 70. Gonu was the strongest cyclone to enter the Persian Gulf since record keeping began in 1945. At its peak, Gonu was a Category 5, with winds varying from 40 to 160 miles per hour (mph) when it made landfall in Oman. It was later downgraded to a category one as it left Oman for the Strait of Hormuz, according to the US Military’s Joint Typhoon Warning Center. Even so, cyclone winds reaching 137 mph struck Bandar Abbas, one of Iran’s port cities, on Wednesday.

Such turbulent conditions will likely increase in the future and will pose a threat to national and regional concerns, according to the World Meteorological Organization.

Oman evacuated 20,000 people in the path of the storm trajectory to schools and government buildings stocked with food and medical supplies. In Iran, 40,000 individuals in coastal areas were evacuated to higher ground. Much of Oman’s main bridges, roads, and electrical and communication infrastructures were seriously impacted by the storm. Both countries experienced flooding. The capital of Oman, Muscat, is said to resemble a large lake, while Iran faced an unprecedented 120 millimeters (mm) of rain in a single day. Official estimates of the cost associated with repairing the subsequent damage to Oman and Iran’s infrastructure have yet to be released, but unofficial estimates project the number will be in the billions.

Effects on Energy Industry

Anticipating the worst, the price of oil futures spiked to $71 a barrel on June 6, 2007. After it became clear the obstruction of oil flow through the Strait would be limited, futures returned to their pre-spike cost of $65 over the weekend. Oman’s sole shipping terminal, Mina Al Fahal, closed for three days before reopening on Saturday, June 8th. Though the operations terminal was relatively unscathed by the storm, Oman’s majority state-owned firm, Petroleum Development Oman anticipated that crude output would decrease for the remainder of the year to between 560,000 to 570,000 barrels per day (bpd), a 20,000 bpd decline in production. Meanwhile, Oman’s Sur refinery and its Liquid Natural Gas (LNG) production levels had returned to normal by June 8th.

Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, the 54 kilometer ‘chokepoint’ through which approximately 25 percent of the world’s oil is shipped, halted prior in anticipation of the cyclone, but resumed on June 7, 2007, with the reopening of Dubai’s Fujairah refueling center.

Gonu Linked to Global Warming

Meteorologists cited the Gulf of Oman’s uncharacteristically high water temperatures of 85 degrees Fahrenheit, (nearly five degrees higher than the average), to be the impetus for the cyclone’s development.

•The World Meteorological Organization concluded in a recent report that warmer temperatures will result in an “increase in tropical cyclone peak wind-speed and rainfall will occur if the climate continues to warm. Model studies and theory project a 3 to 5 percent increase in wind-speed per degree Celsius increase of tropical sea surface temperatures.”

Though most analyses concerning the affects of global warming on the Middle East focus on issues related to fresh water resources, an increase in the occurrence of cyclones in the Persian Gulf would also pose a threat to national and regional security. The slightest disturbance in the flow of oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz has the potential to increase oil prices immediately, which in turn affects the bottom line of governments all over the world. More importantly, the destruction and devastation left behind by a storm, such as Gonu, takes years to recover from and could force some elements of society to migrate, particularly if the event becomes recurring.

In the case of hurricane Katrina in New Orleans, many residents were forced to relocate to different states during the cleanup process and some never returned. If a similar course is taken by displaced Iranians and Omanis, the side effects of large displaced populations already being experienced by Middle Eastern countries neighboring Iraq and Palestine will be multiplied, and tensions will crop up between immigrant and native populations with the host country. Additionally, resources such as fresh water, which is already limited, will be further impacted.

Looking Forward

Despite efforts by oil companies to make offshore oil platforms more stable and to improve early warning systems, offshore oilrigs will continue to be at risk during severe storms and natural disasters. Previously, the Persian Gulf was not a high-risk for natural disasters. As global warming continues to take effect, however, cyclones and severe storms will inevitably become more commonplace.

Some of the storms’ impact on oil transport will be mitigated by planned underground oil pipelines, such as those being discussed to circumvent the Strait of Hormuz (Previous Report). Originally designed to decrease the vulnerability of oil transports to terrorism, underground oil pipelines may also be a viable defense against impediments to the flow of oil shipments associated with natural disasters. Oil platforms, however, will remain necessary despite the calculated risk involved.

Limited migration as a result of cyclone Gonu is inevitable due to the destruction. It is not expected, however, that large scale, permanent migration will result. Both the Omani and Iranian governments appear to have the immediate relief efforts under control, and, with the return of the traditionally arid, hot summer days; floodwaters should reside within a reasonable time period. The cleanup will be arduous, but attachment to one’s homeland is a component of many Arab’s that will draw displaced persons back home. If severe weather storms become commonplace, however, many may be forced to migrate in an effort to move inland and gain access to a stable economy in which to work, leading to domestic upheaval in and strain on the natural resources of the host countries.