Earlier this month, the Chinese Coast Guard contacted three ships in international waters near eastern Taiwan, demanding they identify their points of origin and destination. China didn’t stop these vessels. But it was asserting a right to police maritime traffic near Taiwan — and, perhaps, previewing a major crisis that could be just a year or two away. Many China-watchers worry that a Taiwan crisis might occur next year. According to US intelligence agencies, General Secretary Xi Jinping has ordered the People’s Liberation Army to be ready for action against Taiwan in 2027. Yet the critical moment might instead be January 2028. That’s when Taiwan holds its next presidential election, and when Xi might decide to force the issue. Admittedly, things seem calm now. The last major Taiwan crisis occurred nearly four years ago, when then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited the island. US-China relations seem to be at a temporary truce: Xi and President Donald Trump committed to “constructive strategic stability” at their May meeting in Beijing.

Full opinion : Something ominous is happening in the western Pacific, and the US isn’t ready for it.