As 2006 dawns, Asia finds numerous struggles marching onward without much expectation of resolution. Religion seems to be the preeminent motivating factor across the region, yet numerous ethnic conflicts simmer on and even an ideological Maoist rear-guard action in Nepal and regions of India harken back to the Cold War, which ended some 15 years ago. While it is possible to claim that some semblance of stability has been achieved in Afghanistan due to the preponderance of international forces lingering more than four years after the fall of the Taliban , Pakistan remains the operational heart of al-Qaeda and the global jihadi movement (although elements within Saudi Arabia can still claim the group’s ideological and financial soul). Although Pakistan’s President Pervez Musharraf negotiated the political minefield between the country’s military and radical Islamic political parties with reasonable success, he has been unable (or perhaps unwilling) to deliver the final crushing blow to Taliban and al-Qaeda operatives and sympathizers throughout the Waziristan region of the country’s Northwest Frontier Province, which borders Afghanistan. As a result, the global jihadist movement can still claim with some legitimacy a reasonable amount of unanimity if not coordination. In the meantime, Pakistan’s urban dwellers were thrust into the frontlines as militants increasingly targeted civilians in marketplace bombings and drive-by shootings , and nationalists from the province of Baluchistan bombed pipelines, disrupting the delivery of natural gas to cities and businesses . Importantly, Musharraf made significant headway with India regarding Kashmir by opening up transit routes and generally improving and increasing contacts with his rival. Nonetheless, since the global threat posed by Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Tayyiba (LeT) operative links to cells in North America, Europe, and across Asia, uncovered in a series of public court cases, Pakistan should remain the so-called ‘ground zero’ in the Global War on Terrorism.

While Pakistan may be viewed as the epicenter of al-Qaeda’s global jihadist movement, that particular group has surprisingly few continuing operational networks across Southeast Asia due in large part because its ally, Indonesia’s Jemaah Islamiya (JI) , serves that function exceedingly well. Although Indonesian authorities scored a major success with the death of master bomb-maker and operational leader Azahari Husin (WAR Report), his cohort Noordin Mohammad Top, thought to be both an excellent logistician and recruiter, remains at large. In the short term, JI operations may increase in pace but decrease in lethality due to diminished explosive sophistication until a comparable bomb-maker can be trained or brought from abroad.

It became obvious during 2005 that significant explosives expertise was imparted to JI’s burgeoning ally, the Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG) in the Philippines . A mountain of evidence was made public over the past year linking JI and ASG via training camps, tactics, and the rapid evolution and implementation of improvised explosive devices (IEDs) across the Philippines (WAR Report). If the previous two years are any guide, Philippine officials should remain on heightened alert ? especially at transportation hubs ? throughout January and February 2006 since major strikes targeting civilians have occurred over the same period over the previous 24 months.

Although JI’s ties to the Muslim militancy in southern Thailand are not clear, they are certainly the prime suspects behind the insurgency , which will mark its second anniversary on January 4, 2006. While violence there has been minimal since November 2005, it will likely flair up again early in the new year since Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra’s efforts have delivered mixed results and little perceivable improvement in the affected regions.

Of the Islamic militant movements across Asia with perhaps the most tenuous links to al-Qaeda or JI are probably those in Bangladesh . Nonetheless, a wildly successful coordinated bombing attack of over 500 strikes against at least one target in nearly every major city, town, and political precinct on August 17, 2005 is particularly ominous. Minimal damage was reported, and the initial impact on the robust democracy was limited, yet the mastermind behind the attack?thought to be Jama’atul Mujahideen Bangladesh leader Abdur Rahman?demonstrated remarkable logistical capacity. Finally, if the threat of even 1% of the estimated 2,000 suicide attackers currently thought to be waiting instructions are deployed (WAR Report), 2006 in Bangladesh will be much more bloody.

However, radical Islamic fundamentalist violence is not the only problem plaguing Asia. The stalled peace process in Sri Lanka between the Sinhalese dominant government and the Tamil minority militants, the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) , of the north and east is on the verge of complete collapse this first week in 2006 as skirmishes have killed over 40 soldiers in the past six weeks, culminating in a bomb explosion on January 2, 2006 that killed five people and injured two in Trincomalee.

On the same day, Nepal’s Maoist rebels announced that they were ending their four-month unilateral ceasefire. Having secured at least a temporary alliance in late 2005 with the alienated Nepalese political parties against the monarchy (WAR Report), rebel leadership announced that government harassment had “compelled [them] to go on the offensive,” boding increased violence across the country for the foreseeable future.

More broadly, organized crime and violent gangs will dog the region, especially on the seas of the Malaccan Straits where, thus far, only Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore routinely deploy anti-piracy forces. Despite strong and consistence voices, neither the US , Australia , nor other significant naval powers have been successful in their efforts to bolster the security of those critical sea lanes (WAR Report), and, thus, piracy will remain a problem well into 2006.

Finally, as counter-terrorism security efforts across China increase apace in advance of the 2008 Olympics (WAR Report), that country will feature more prominently in the WAR Report over the course of the coming 12 months and beyond. Nonetheless, Pakistan and Indonesia remain the countries of primary concern as sources for terrorism, with Indonesia, the Philippines, and Australia as the leading targets.