China’s armed forces are more ready than ever to surround the self-ruled island of Taiwan, cut it off from the world and try to squeeze it into submission. The more that China prepares, the greater the risk that Beijing decides to shift without notice from drills to war. Taiwan relies on imports for 96% of its power, through foreign oil, coal and natural gas. A blockaded island would have to rely on stockpiled energy imports, submit to Beijing, or go dark. With a blockade, China could probe Taiwan’s defenses while trying to suffocate its economy and undermine its determination to resist. Taiwan’s military held a five-day drill ending Friday designed to immediately prepare for war, and a coming exercise will be based on the premise that China plans to invade in 2027.

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