Ukraine has accused Moscow of planning a ground offensive for early in the new year, despite recent Russian military setbacks. Senior officials alongside President Volodymyr Zelensky have warned that Kyiv and its allies must protect themselves from complacency. The offensive could occur in the eastern Donbas region, the south or towards Kyiv. 

Western analysts say Russia’s ability to conduct a successful offensive ground mission is rapidly diminishing. The war is expected to only get worse for Moscow as it additionally is facing a critical shortage of artillery munitions. There is speculation that the offensive would occur in February when half of the 300,000 troops conscripted by Russia in October would complete training. Ukraine’s Defense Minister Oleksil Reznikov also believes that Russia will further mobilize its public in the future.

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