Israel’s Rafah offensive is critical to the relationship between Egypt and Israel. Egypt fears Israel won’t allow displaced Palestinians to return to Gaza while a refugee exodus would burden its struggling economy and could pose security challenges. Israel’s planned ground assault on Rafah threatens to intensify pressure on displaced Palestinians to move into Egypt’s Sinai – a development Egyptian officials have declared would cross a red line. Cairo has tightened border security, reportedly moving tanks and armored personnel carriers close to the border to halt any potential spillover from an Israeli land assault.

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