The civil unrest and political maneuvering among rival political blocs in Bangladesh escalated this week, deepening the ongoing political crisis and national instability wracking the country. However, late-breaking reports say that the opposition bloc, led by the Awami League, has paused its political protests, strikes, and blockades paralyzing the nation in an attempt to allow space and time for the interim government to make good on promises to address opposition electoral reform demands. This pause by the opposition and the ensuing actions of the interim government and election commission represent a pivotal period with the potential to either begin to resolve or exacerbate the crisis.

In the latest clashes between supporters of the outgoing ruling bloc, led by the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), and the opposition bloc of 14 political parties, led by the Awami League, two people were shot dead, one stabbed to death, and 11 wounded in a gun battle in the southeastern town of Cox?s Bazar, raising the number of killed in pre-election violence to 34. The opposition had stepped up street protests and transport blockades, grinding the country to a halt and throttling the capital, Dhaka. Roughly 20,000 protesters thronged Dhaka, erecting barricades on main highways, and cutting the capital off from the rest of the country. Police and other national security cadres are out in force to contain the unrest. The opposition bloc has promised continued civil disobedience if the interim government does not meet their demands for major electoral reforms ahead of January 21 elections.

The opposition contends that both the current interim caretaker government?which is meant to be a non-partisan body that assumes power at the end of a government?s term and is charged with holding free and fair elections as a mechanism for preventing the outgoing government from rigging elections–and the election commission are, in fact, stacked with allies of the outgoing BNP government. The opposition is demanding: 1) the resignation of President Iajuddin Ahmed, who installed himself as head of the interim government and is perceived as a BNP ally, and the election commission, 2) the ?reconstitution? of the election commission, and 3) the revision of a voter list they claim contains 14 million fake names meant to pad BNP votes. The interim government has said that is has requested that the commission reschedule the election and carry out corrections to the voter list. Ahmed had met with members of the interim government and the chiefs of the rival political blocs to broker a resolution to no avail.

Forecast: A Political Reckoning and Economic Downturn

The next few days will be a fulcrum period, as the moves by the interim government and election commission in addressing opposition electoral grievances will drive the course of the crisis in the near term. The ability of the government and election commission to effect electoral reforms palatable to both blocs will either pivot the crisis toward resolution or, conversely, further aggrieve the opposition. The latter move will compel the opposition to reinvigorate coercive protest activities. Without significant concessions by the opposition, the only fundamental and durable resolution to the crisis would be the unlikely wholesale ousting and replacement of the election commission and President with officials acceptable to both blocs and a revision of the voter list. It is unlikely that the government will succeed in crafting electoral reforms wholly acceptable to both sides.

The near-term machinations of the rival political blocs are difficult to predict. However, the pernicious effects and toll of the current unrest on the country, and particularly on the poor, has the potential to become a political liability for the government and political blocs. Thus, with their political standing and constituency powerbases threatened, the blocs may increasingly seek face-saving compromises. However, Bangladesh?s history of bitter and insidious political instability and conflict, as well as general government incompetence and neglect, does not bode well for prospects that these rival blocs will arrive at a political armistice. Thus, the political standoff and civil unrest will likely endure in the near-term, while the escalating and grinding nature of the crisis will continue to increase the political pressure on both blocs to compromise, likely within the next month. Additionally, a continuing or worsening crisis increases the potential for military intervention.

At present, the crisis jeopardizes the current election timeframe. If the election process continues without a resolution of the political crisis, the election will likely be regarded as illegitimate, corrupting the outcome and any derivative attempts by ?winners? to seize power, further miring Bangladesh in political crisis and national instability.

The ongoing crisis will continue in the near-term to impact Bangladesh?s economy, political stability, and security deleteriously but will remain relatively contained to the country. The civil unrest, major strikes, and clogging of transport routes will paralyze Bangladesh?s commercial sector and economy. Exporters claim the crisis is costing them US$70 million a day. International trade, particularly the garment industry, has been disrupted, and the national currency has dropped significantly. This paralysis may have cascading economic effects on major trading partners and firms with interests in the country. Bangladesh?s regular political and national instability may begin to deter current and potential investors.

Forecast: Increased Islamist Power and Activity, and a Heightened Terrorist Threat to India

As noted in the WAR Report, Bangladesh?s largest religious party, Jemaat-e-Islami, and other Islamist groups and their associated militant elements will likely seek to exploit the instability of the ongoing crisis to expand their powerbase within the country and potentially invigorate militant operations, particularly against neighboring India . In addition, the Indian separatist group the United Liberation Front of Assam (ULFA; Group Profile), is believed to have bases in Bangladesh that may be threatened should the Awami League win power in the elections. As a result, the crisis and looming elections will likely serve as a catalytic force to compel the ULFA to increase operations against India both to exploit the permissive crisis environment and to leverage its Bangladesh bases before they are potentially imperiled by an Awami League government.