State Stability

As many Asian countries seek to showcase stability in order to tap into the rich vein of international investment flowing through the global economy, the dynamics of globalization have illuminated and, at times, exacerbated destabilizing issues of bad governance, long-running insurgencies, and the real or perceived root grievances?often centering on socio-economic inequalities, disadvantages, and persecution along ethnic, religious, or class identity lines–motivating insurgents. These issues of good governance and political stability, societal tensions, and insurgency will strain state stability and serve as the pivotal drivers shaping Asia regional security in 2007.

Good Governance and Political Stability

? Thailand ?The central drivers of Thailand?s security and stability in 2007 will be the government?s moves to stabilize the economy, put down both a nascent Thaksin loyalist rebellion and a long-running Muslim separatist insurgency in the south, and make an expedient transition to civilian rule. After stumbling early, the government will likely recover its footing on economic matters in 2007. Further governing missteps and perceived foot-dragging on transitioning to civilian governance will cause popular tolerance for the junta-backed government to wane and anti-junta/pro-democracy forces to strengthen and organize destabilizing protest and rebellion the longer the junta holds on to power. The junta?s continued hold on power will serve as a rallying cause for Thaksin loyalist insurgents throughout the government?s tenure, invigorating continued insurgent violence.

? Bangladesh ?The election crisis that convulsed the country in late 2006 will damage Bangladesh?s democratic and governance institutions and processes, imperil national elections, and embitter and entrench rival political camps . These dynamics will plague Bangladesh with continued political and national instability and will increase the potential for military intervention to stabilize the country.

? Philippines ?The blighted and embattled administration of President Gloria Arroyo?beset with allegations of cheating in 2004 elections, two impeachment attempts, one military coup, and an unpopular constitutional power grab by legislative allies?will likely continue into 2007, and its suspect governance will likely serve as a central driver of continued political instability. Political assassinations that reached the highest levels in 20 years will likely continue to bloody the Philippines in 2007, as the government has shown little ability to stop the killings, with some human rights observers contending that the attacks are, in fact, state-sanctioned.

? Afghanistan ?In no other Asian country is the corollary between poor governance and intensifying insurgency and societal instability more stark than in Afghanistan. The inability of the Kabul government to project its writ throughout the country and endemic corruption among provincial government officials, coupled with under-resourced and, at times, misguided counterinsurgency operations by international forces will continue to provide a power vacuum and fertile societal soil in the contested hinterlands and south for the Taliban , its al-Qaeda and warlord allies, and drug lords to entrench themselves, strengthen, and intensify operations in 2007.

Societal Tensions and Insurgency

? India ?India remains beset with ongoing or potential insurgencies borne of perceptions of socio-economic, class, and religious sectarian inequality and disadvantage among India?s large Muslim minority, ethno-nationalist separatists in Assam , and Maoist Naxalite insurgents along India?s eastern flank. Each of the existing insurgencies seemingly has been emboldened and grown in strength and ferocity over the last year. This insurgent disposition will likely continue into 2007, leading to an escalation of insurgent operations and compelling the government to move in force to smother them, likely leading to an intensification of insurgent violence and conflict with security forces. Indian security and stability in 2007 will be shaped by the government?s competency and traction in putting down the internal insurgencies and blunting the potential growth of indigenous Muslim militancy not only via military and intelligence operations, but also with holistic efforts to ameliorate the insurgents? and Muslims? motivating root grievances of ethno-nationalist and religious sectarian disadvantage and exploitation.

o The Assam separatist and Naxalite insurgencies, in particular, are closely related to India?s global economic ascendancy, as the communities perceive the government to be plundering the natural resources of their land and exploiting locals to drive India?s economic engine without benefit to locals neglecting locals in these areas.

o The potential growth of indigenous Muslim militancy as a result of societal disadvantage is a particular concern in 2007. The role of the indigenous Muslim extremist group Students Islamic Movement of India (SIMI; Group Profile) in reportedly serving as the operational facilitators for the Lashkar-e-Tayyiba (LeT; Group Profile) bombing of commuter trains in Mumbai on July 11, 2006 underscores the growing potential of indigenous Muslim militancy against the state and this community?s possible susceptibility to collaboration with external Kashmiri separatist and international Islamist militant groups. The indigenous Muslim militancy threat will likely grow in 2007, as Muslim societal disadvantages become starker and as external Islamist militant groups attempt to cultivate and harvest discontent for militancy directed against the state and national economy, Hindus, and foreigners.

? Thailand?The New Year?s Eve Bangkok bombings are likely the opening salvo of an insurgent campaign by Thaksin loyalists who have regrouped and seek to destabilize the government in 2007. The reportedly more extreme and violent new guard of Muslim insurgents in the south seem uninterested in political engagement in the service of their separatist goals?evidenced in the rejection of government peace overtures?but rather prosecuting an intensification in the scope, operations, and violence of their insurgent campaign in the near term. The more bellicose and uncompromising nature of the insurgents portends a bloody 2007 and will likely compel the government to return to a forceful military counterinsurgency campaign, leading to an upsurge in insurgent attacks and conflict against government forces and perceived local collaborators.

? Afghanistan?Without unlikely major enhancements in the operational faculties of the Afghan government and security forces, along with coalition forces muscle, enabling them to wrest control of drug trafficker and Taliban strongholds?namely through an ?ink blot? counterinsurgency of providing secure areas in which development initiatives can take hold and win Afghans back to the government?they will continue to strengthen, entrench themselves, and operate with greater vigor and violence in 2007.

? Sri Lanka?Following unproductive peace talks in 2006, the LTTE insurgency is likely to intensify in 2007, as the Tigers and the government largely abandon political negotiation and redouble militant efforts to achieve their goals.

Economic Issues

? China?China will continue its staggering economic growth as a preeminent player within the global economy and will likely seek to diversify its economy to sustain and stabilize long-term growth.

? India?India, too, will continue to harness globalization and modernity on its way toward realizing its potential as a major power at the forefront of the global economy. While India?s economic ascendance is likely to continue through 2007, driven by continued growth in its technology sector, it will be harried by continuing security and stability issues of societal sectarian inequalities and tensions and internal separatist insurgencies and terrorism.

Transnational Security Threats

? Al-Qaeda Global Islamist Insurgency?With its center of gravity in Pakistan , the al-Qaeda jihadist network will continue to engage operationally, support, energize, and direct and fight with local Islamist insurgents throughout Asia, in particular with the Taliban, Jemaah Islamiya (JI; Group Profile), and the Abu Sayyaf Group , the latter two operating in and around Indonesia and the Philippines.

? North Korea Nuclear Threats and Proliferation?The Kim regime will continue to saber-rattle its nuclear capabilities and potential for proliferation to establish a deterrent against perceived US threats, strengthen regional influence, and garner international political currency that can be exchanged for economic aid. The regime is likely to run up to perceived international, and particularly US, casus belli red-lines in nuclear activity, but not cross them in order to avoid imperiling the regime and its hold on power. This saber-rattling has the strong potential to include test detonation of additional nuclear weapons; will cause intermittent, but limited, regional crises; and will compel Japan and South Korea to enhance their security postures.

? Crime

o Maritime Piracy?Though on the decline due in part to stepped up maritime security efforts by southeast Asian countries, modern maritime piracy will remain a threat to key shipping lanes and littoral waters, in particular the Chittagong anchorage in Bangladesh, the Malacca Strait, and the South China Sea.

o Afghan Opium?The United Nations predicts a record poppy harvest for Afghanistan in 2007, coming off a bumper crop in 2006. Poppy cultivation for global drug markets will continue to serve as a destabilizing enterprise for Afghanistan, miring desperate subsistence farmers and providing revenue to fund and operationally strengthen a synergistic nexus of Afghan drug lords, the Taliban and associated insurgents, and colluding provincial officials protecting this lucrative and empowering lifeblood.