A military build-up in Taiwan has been met with international criticism after offensive missiles were deployed on the island’s western coast for the first time since 1949. Coupled with disputes over the 2008 Olympic torch route and nationalist-favored elections looming on the horizon, Taiwan’s government has raised the stakes in its decades-long battle for sovereignty with China.

The People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) answer: A combination of 900 medium and long range missiles aimed at strategic locations across Taiwan and renewed promises not to cede an inch of Chinese soil.

St. Lucia Stokes East Asia Row

The small Caribbean island of St. Lucia announced in early May 2007 that it would officially open diplomatic relations with Taiwan after both China and Taiwan sent delegations April 2007 to court the small nation.

The Foreign Minister of St. Lucia, Rufus Bousquet, openly associated his country’s decision with the funding incentives offered by both sides, citing a 20 percent poverty rate and poor economic ties with China. In turn, the PRC was overtly indignant after its 10-year relationship with St. Lucia succumbed to what Taiwan promised to be a more fortuitous economic exchange.

It is also likely that St. Lucia’s choice was inspired by its independence from Great Britain in 1979, in addition to a more promising financial future. Such a move has only served to exacerbate tensions flaring between China and Taiwan.

2008 Election Implications

As increasingly poor ties between China and Taiwan continue to degenerate, East Asia holds its breath as Taiwan’s two main political parties, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and the Nationalist Party (KMT), compete in a contested election too close to call.

Both sides of the spectrum are represented in leading candidates expected to accept their respective party’s nominations – Frank Hsieh, DPP’s leading candidate, is well known for promoting improved relations with China, while KMT remains stoically focused on nationalistic issues and tourism encouragement. A win by the nationalist KMT all but ensures a decline in ties between China and Taiwan with leading members of KMT reinforcing their call for an independent Taiwan.

Taiwan can expect a temporary reprieve of diplomatic hostilities during the near-term as China adopts an inward focus to prepare for next year’s Olympic Games in Beijing, but reinvigorated tensions are likely to resume as the Olympics are concluded.

If KMT secures the executive branch in next year’s elections, however, changes are likely as a result of Taiwan’s recent military acquisition from the United States and as a more stabilized economy takes root.

Foreign relations are more apt to be a priority under a nationalist regime, diverting focus from Taiwan’s drug and human trafficking problems, which have often been criticized abroad. Therefore, it is reasonable to believe that the uneasy “peace” shared by Taiwan and China will be impacted through the long-term.