Artificial intelligence research is filled with dramatic forecasts. AI will affect almost 40% of jobs around the world, according to the International Monetary Fund. It will increase global GDP by $7 trillion — or 7% — over 10 years, predicts Goldman Sachs. Or it will grow between $17.1 and $25.6 trillion annually, if you prefer to go with McKinsey’s estimate. And these projections are relatively conservative compared with others. In a new paper, “The Simple Macroeconomics of AI,” MIT Institute Professor Daron Acemoglu has a more conservative estimate of how AI will affect the U.S. economy over the next 10 years. Estimating that only about 5% of tasks will be able to be profitably performed by AI within that time frame, the GDP boost would likely be closer to 1% over that period, Acemoglu suggests. This is a “nontrivial, but modest effect, and certainly much less than both the revolutionary changes some are predicting and the less hyperbolic but still substantial improvements forecast by Goldman Sachs and the McKinsey Global Institute,” he writes.

Full research : In a new paper, MIT Institute Professor Daron Acemoglu predicts that artificial intelligence will have a “nontrivial, but modest” effect on GDP in the next decade.