This piece outlines the economics behind oft-discussed predictions that AI will soon deliver double-digit GDP growth in advanced economies. Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei says that AI could push growth to something like 10-15 percent per year. Leopold Aschenbrenner’s essay “Situational Awareness” states that the decade ahead “could see economic growth rates of 30%/year and beyond.” And in a widely shared tweet, Anthropic researcher Sholto Douglas advises “pricing in economic doublings into your mental models of the 2030s,” with Elon Musk endorsing the tweet. That is a growth rate of 100 percent per year. These are not isolated examples: predictions of double-digit growth are common among AI insiders, as Tom Cunningham’s compendium of AI growth forecasts for 2025-2035 shows.

Full opinion : A look at why the oft-discussed predictions that AI will deliver double-digit GDP growth in advanced economies are extremely unlikely over the next 10-15 years.