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  • Intelligence Co-production and Transaction Analysis for Counterterrorism and Counter-netwar

    Combatting networked threats requires new approaches to producing intelligence to support a range of operations. Contemporary networked threats include terrorism and insurgency. This paper describes the need for a distributed global network for the co-production of intelligence. It introduces the concept of Intelligence Preparation for Operations (IPO) and describes a transaction analysis model suited to…

  • Intelligence-led Mitigation

    This paper explores methods for capitalizing on existing law enforcement intelligence capabilities to provide intelligence support to decision makers for a full spectrum of public safety and emergency service operations. Intelligence-led mitigation is a management philosophy and business process to proactively guide strategic, operational, and tactical decisions for mitigating the effects of intentional, accidental, and…

  • Hype, Social Media, and Networked Social Movements

    “What good did social media actually do for the people of Iran?” TechCrunch‘s Paul Carr asks. “Despite a slew of YouTube videos and a couple of thousand foreign Twitter users turning their avatar green and pretending to be in Tehran, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is still in power.” While harsh, this criticism is essentially correct. New technologies,…

  • NO DNI love for uGOV

    In the finger-pointing-fest after 9/11, the US Intelligence Community was blamed for failing to “connect the dots.” As incomplete a description of the intelligence analysis process as that may be, it brought to the fore a point that many of us in the business had been complaining about for years: stovepipes and parochial interests inhibited…

  • Toward Operational Art for Policing

    The military, facing a complex and intractable mixture of “wicked problems” on the battlefield, has responded with a doctrinal revolution in the production and practice of operational theory.  But most police agencies don’t incorporate the “operational level of maneuver” into their planning and concept of operations.   We face a constellation of complex “high-intensity policing” problems…

  • A Millennium Challenge for Homeland Security

    Among defense insiders, Millennium Challenge 2002 stands out as one of the most controversial red team exercises in American military history. MC2002 suspiciously resembled the looming invasion of Iraq, as it involved a conventional BLUE force facing RED military forces of a small Middle Eastern nation. In theory, either side could win the free play…

  • Frontlines of Criminal Insurgency: Understanding the Plazas

    Mexico, and the cross-border region that embraces the frontier between Mexico and the United States, are embroiled in a series of interlocking, networked criminal insurgencies. These criminal insurgencies are essentially battles for dominance of the plazas, or corridors for the shipment of drugs into the United States. They are battles for profit and power. Cartels…

  • The Rise of Cyber-Mobilization

    In Gaza, a tentative ceasefire has been declared. But the war in cyberspace continues. Israel and its adversaries have taken to the global cyber commons to wage cyberwar against each other, deploying crowdsourced information militias. The Israeli Consulate and the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) extensively utilize Youtube and Twitter to make their case, boiling complicated…

  • Can Strategy Be Crowdsourced?

    Criminal, terrorist, and insurgent networks have become powerful world actors. They utilize network forms of organization to make fast decisions, cover a wide operational space, remain resilient in the face of state reprisals, and have a capacity for learning and self-correction that many top-down organizations lack.

  • Criminal Netwarriors in Mexico’s Drug Wars

    Mexico is imploding in a series of interlocking ‘criminal insurgencies’ culminating in a virtual civil war. Kidnappings, assassinations, beheadings, shoot-outs:  Mexico is gripped by combat between drug cartels, gangs and the police. Mexican President Felipe Calderon starkly states: “It’s a War.” The Drug War in Mexico has killed 6,836 people since January 2007. This year…


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