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Analysis

  • The Global Food Security Crisis: Russia Pulls Out of the Black Sea Grain Initiative (But Continues to Smuggle Grain)

    Russia has notified Turkey, Ukraine and the UN that it will not renew a deal that allowed Ukraine to export grain through the Black Sea.  Ukrainian wheat production plays a significant role in global food security due to its status as one of the world’s major wheat exporters. Ukraine is among the top wheat-producing countries,…

  • Context and Lessons on The Deindustrialization of Germany

    A recent article in Politico, “Rust belt on the Rhine”, lays out many of the monumental challenges the German economy and society face in the future: The article does not mention the educational system, which in many ways appears to be stuck in the 1950s (minus corporal punishment). But the educational system might be an…

  • NATO’s Defence Innovation Accelerator for the North Atlantic (DIANA)

    In the months before the recent 2023 NATO Summit in Lithiuania,  the NATO’s Defence Innovation Accelerator for the North Atlantic (DIANA)  opened its European regional office at the Imperial College London Innovation Hub in London in May and launched its first three pilot challenge programs.  This operational “standup” was all in a timeline of less…

  • Does NATO Need Its Own Cyber Command?

    Given the proximity of the conflict to neighboring NATO member states, it is unsurprising that the cyberwar between Russia and Ukraine has extended beyond the borders of the two countries, as state and nonstate actors expanded their targeting to third-party countries, including those in the NATO alliance, who have taken sides in the conflict.  To be fair,…

  • Deep Tech is, by its Very Nature, Speculative Design: The Varda Space Drug Factory (Currently Manufacturing Ritonavir in Low Earth Orbit)

    This project is fully operational, but had to start as a rigorous speculative design process – more sci-fi than real world. Until it wasn’t.  It is representative of the kind of project that will still feel like a faraway future, but is currently manufacturing a drug experiment in space. Take a look at the The…

  • The Ukrainian National Cybersecurity Coordination Center on the “First World Cyber War”

    The National Cybersecurity Coordination Center (NCCC) is an organization housed within the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine and, based on the USAID logo on the front page of some of its reports, sponsored by the U.S. Government.  The NCCC has provided an English translation of its June 2023 Review of Cybersecurity in  Ukraine,…

  • Ripple Labs Wins A Landmark SEC Ruling and Blackrock is Bullish on Cryptocurrency-based Investment Vehicles

     AI has crushed cryptocurrency in the recent technology hype cycle, garnering VC and mainstream media attention fast on the heels FTX Sam Bankman-Fried debacle which tarnished the entire crpytocurrency ecosystem.  What is going on with crypto you may ask? Two recent, majro developments in the crypto space broke through in the last few weeks and…

  • OODA Salon: Examine The Future of Intelligence and Security

    Tuesday 18 July at 4pm Eastern four very experienced national security and intelligence professionals joined in a discussion of the future of intelligence and security informed by last week’s INSA and AFCEA Intelligence Summit.  Heather McMahon, Johnny Sawyer, Larry Pfeiffer and Bob Gourley were all there engaging with various discussions that dove deep into topics of geopolitical…

  • China’s Gallium and Germanium-based Countermeasures in the Global Chip Supply Chain War

    Tactically, China recently made a significant geopoltical and in the IT supply chain move, restricting exports of two minerals used in high-performance chips.  Following is a summary of the new Chinese policy – followed by links to our original analysis series on rare earth, critical minerals and the global IT supply chain (disruption, innovation and…

  • “We Have No Moat”: Tracking the Exponential Growth of Open Source LLM Performance (Latency and Throughout)

    Like the Unix, Solaris, Irix, AIX Open Source operating systems that became the Linux-led open source operating system and the broader open source software movement (over a 30 to 40 year time period) the open source large language model “market” is poised to eat up market share in an exponentially fast time frame. Hugging Face…


OODAcasts

  • Adam Shostack on Cybersecurity and What Every Engineer Should Learn From Star Wars

    Adam Shostack on Cybersecurity and What Every Engineer Should Learn From Star Wars

    Adam Shostack is widely known in the cybersecurity world for his pioneering work on disclosing and discussing computer vulnerabilities (the CVE  (common vulnerabilities and exposures) list). He also helped formalize and train leading approaches to threat modeling and wrote the foundational book on the subject (Threat Modeling: Designing for Security). In this OODAcast we seek…

  • Sebastian Mallaby on How Venture Capitalists and Hedge Funds Achieve Success

    Sebastian Mallaby on How Venture Capitalists and Hedge Funds Achieve Success

    Sebastian Mallaby joined the OODAcast for a discussion about the Power Law in venture capital and the rise of the global hedge fund and private equity industries.

  • Former Head of National Intelligence Council Neil Wiley on Intelligence Analysis

    Former Head of National Intelligence Council Neil Wiley on Intelligence Analysis

    Neil Wiley has lead some of the US Intelligence Community’s most important analytical functions. His career in intelligence began as a Naval Intelligence Officer in an operational intelligence center focused on support to critical operational naval missions. He would later serve joint intelligence missions in Europe, would rise to lead all analytical activities at the…

  • Michael Gibson Wants to Light the Paper Belt on Fire

    Michael Gibson Wants to Light the Paper Belt on Fire

    This OODAcast features a fascinating conversation with Michael Gibson, the author of the book “Paper Belt on Fire” who is also the co-founder of the Thiel Fellowship program and the 1517 Fund, both of which focus on identifying unconventional ideas and individuals that can drive disruptive innovation in technology, arts, and science.

  • Jimmy Soni on Why PayPal Was Successful
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    Jimmy Soni on Why PayPal Was Successful

    In this OODAcast, we talk with Jimmy Soni, the author of the book “The Founders: The Story of PayPal and the Entrepreneurs Who Shaped Silicon Valley”. Jimmy takes a deep, historical look at the founding story of PayPal with detailed analysis, interviews, and access that you won’t find in any other telling of the PayPal…

  • Jen Hoar on Corporate Intelligence and Investigations

    Jen Hoar on Corporate Intelligence and Investigations

    In this OODAcast we interview one of our close friends and OODA network members, Jen Hoar. Jen is a former journalist-turned-corporate investigator who has leveraged the potent act of asking, and listening, to turn strangers into sources and contacts into clients. Her expertise, which is clearly also her passion, is identifying and interviewing smart people…

  • Joseph Menn on Observations From Tech Journalism
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    Joseph Menn on Observations From Tech Journalism

    Covering technology issues, and specifically cybersecurity as a journalist is a tough endeavor. Some of these technologies are complex as are the security vulnerabilities often inherent in their deployment and making these topics broadly accessible can be a challenge. Many of the underlying issues touch upon national security and civil liberties creating an interesting nexus…

  • Lawrence Gasman on Assessing the Business Impact of Quantum Technologies

    Lawrence Gasman on Assessing the Business Impact of Quantum Technologies

    Lawrence Gasman has researched and reported on quantum technologies from the beginning of the discipline of quantum computing. He is now the President of Inside Quantum Technology (IQT), which provides in-depth business intelligence for the quantum technology industry. IQT also runs several major quantum technology conferences as well as a quantum industry news service. On…

  • 100 Episodes of OODAcast: Providing actionable insights for future risks and opportunities.

    100 Episodes of OODAcast: Providing actionable insights for future risks and opportunities.

    In 2020, we launched the OODAcast video and podcast series designed to provide insightful analysis and actionable intelligence to decision makers. In this 100th episode, co-hosts Matt Devost and Bob Gourley review some of the key insights from the series. Matt and Bob also discuss a OODA’s recent assessment of risks and opportunities given the…

  • David Greenberg on Decision-making in Volatile Markets

    While the OODA Loop was been heralded in the domain of conflict, we often find the concept in business and there is no greater business analogy to dogfighting that David Greenberg’s experience as a trader on the floor of the world’s largest physical commodities exchange. David’s job required rapid decision making based on constantly changing…

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