Food Security and Inflation are Increasingly Drivers of Geopolitical Action

Food security is becoming a critical factor in geopolitics. The US seems better positioned than most as a net exporter of food, but with enduring drought in the midwest there are concerns and risks that need to be mitigated. Riots in Sri Lanka which have resulted in the resignation of the prime minister is one early example of what the impact of poor food security can bring. 

Inflation is also directly related to food security. If people cannot afford to buy food they do not have individual food security. A salient example is the situation in Argentina, where runaway inflation is causing massive protests. It is not hard to see this type of stress on other nations, including Turkey and India. Overall inflation globally seems to be calming, and as mentioned there are indications that food prices may be flat, but this is one to watch for sure.

Riots are being seen in many other regions. In Kenya the rallying cry at current protests is “no food, no elections!” and people are marching with bowls they expect to be filled.

Beyond 2024, looking at the trends in geopolitical tensions, cost of oil/gas (used in fertilizer production) and conflict in Ukraine, it is pretty clear that a global food crisis is going to eventually hit every continent. In North America we will have it better than others. Here we will complain about not getting out of season fruits or not having our usual variety. But in most other regions it will be a very real fight to avoid mass starvation and widespread malnutrition. Unfortunately, famine is coming for many (Russia and China are both trying to shape blame on this famine to be on the US).

It is puzzling and counter intuitive that in this age of increasing food security issues and inflation there is so little being done to improve the situation. Many actions by leaders are actually counter productive, like shutting down nuclear power plants vice building more, or forcing farmers to reduce nitrogen use to try to reduce atmospheric carbon (cause of dutch protests). There are other methods of reducing nitrogen use besides just dictating reduction, including innovative new technologies for capturing nitrogen for agriculture.

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