Highlights

– The wife of former Prime Minister (PM) Thaksin Shinawatra returned to Thailand on January 8, 2008
– Thaksin has announced plans to return sometime in April 2008
– Thaksin’s return will likely create additional political tensions in Thailand

On January 8, 2008, Pojaman Shinawatra, former PM Thaksin Shinawatra’s wife, returned to Thailand to fight corruption charges against her. She was arrested upon arrival but released on bail after an appearance at the Supreme Court.

Pojaman’s return is only two weeks after the People Power Party (PPP) won the most seats in the first polls since the military coup in September 2006 that ousted Thaksin from power. While Thaksin has widespread approval throughout Thailand’s northern provinces, the military junta still controls the powerful elite in Bangkok.

Thaksin and his wife have lived outside of Thailand since the bloodless coup in September 2006 (Previous Report). The couple faces charges related to the purchase of a plot of land in central Bangkok and charges related to an alleged attempt to conceal assets, violating the stock-trading law. They have denied any wrong doings and Pojaman claimed she returned to fight the charges and to attend the funeral of King Bhumibol Adulyadej’s sister, Princess Galyani Vadhana.

Thaksin’s return will likely further strain relations between military leaders and PPP members.

PPP Win

Former members of Thaksin’s Thai Rak Thai (TRT) party joined the PPP after a military-backed tribunal dissolved the TRT in early 2007. The PPP was widely expected to win the most seats in the parliamentary elections, preventing its rival, the Democratic Party (DP), from forming a coalition government (Previous Report). However, the PPP did better than expected winning 233 seats in the 480-seat parliaments, only eight short of an outright majority.

PPP party leader, Samak Sundaravej, appears set to become Thailand’s next prime minister and has already created waves within Thai politics. Samak announced plans to lift Thaksin’s five-year ban from politics and to end the corruption investigation against Thaksin and his wife.

The PPP is scheduled to reveal their coalition government by January 22, 2008, waiting the customary 30 days after the election.

Junta Threats

Immediately after the results of the December 2007 election were announced, officials claimed nearly one fifth of the seats may have been won through vote buying. Of the 83 seats being investigated, 65 were won by the PPP but party leadership said they remained confident that the Election Commission would carry out the investigation fairly.

In a more direct threat to the party, the Thai Supreme Court has agreed to hear a claim that the PPP should be dissolved for serving as a proxy for Thaksin and his TRT party. DP candidate Chaiwat Sinsuwong alleges that Samak and other PPP supporters have announced their plans to be advised by Thaksin once they form a coalition government, despite Thaksin’s ban from politics. Samak accused via public radio the DP and junta leaders of “trying hard to topple us” with an “invisible and dirty hand.”

If the Supreme Court decides to dissolve the party, country-wide protests are highly likely to break out as Thaksin still has strong support, as seen in the election results.

Outlook for Thaksin’s Party

Pojaman’s return is most likely a calculated risk, set to test the waters and potentially pave the way for Thaksin’s return later this year. The former PM has announced his plan to return sometime in mid-April numerous times, a date set well after the PPP’s presumed coalition government will be formed and in place.

Although Thaksin has stated his desire to stay out of politics when he returns, solely acting in a consulting position, the junta will likely view his return as a threat to their leadership. However, junta leaders will be unlikely to stage another coup while the revered King remains healthy and active.

Political tensions will likely rise in the near-term as the PPP coalition government is announced and Pojaman’s trial is set to begin on January 23, 2008.