Designed as “A Practical Guide for State and Local Governments,”  Addressing the Threat of Political Violence in the 2024 Elections is diagnostic, prescriptive, directive, and immediately actionable.  The report is the result of a workshop convened in the spring of 2024 consisting of a group of senior law enforcement officials, national security analysts, attorneys, legal scholars, and others who initiated discussions.  The OODA Loop readership and OODA Networks members are encouraged to distribute this report far and wide due to the time-sensitive nature of the threat and the fast-approaching election in November. 

To order a hard copy of the report, go to this link.

For the free, digital PDF version of the report, go to Addressing the Threat of Political Violence in the 2024 Elections 

Report website:  https://www.politicalviolencereports.com/

Background

Who are We, and Why did we Produce this Report?    

In the spring of 2024, a group of senior law enforcement officials, national security analysts, attorneys, legal scholars, and others initiated discussions that led to this report.

They were motivated by their shared concern for the future of the country.  They had confidence in the resilience of American society––faith that American common sense would prevail. But they also worried that the country’s deep divisions and dark mood could propel even minor incidents of violence during the election cycle into a dangerous national crisis.

Report Contributors

Lauren C. Anderson––An FBI veteran, led the FBI’s New York Office Joint Terrorism Task Force; currently an advisor to the U.S. Comptroller General at the GAO and Fellow at the Geneva Centre for Security Policy.

John B. Bellinger, III––Co-chair of Arnold & Porter’s Global Law and Public Policy Group; former legal advisor to the U.S. Department of State; senior associate counsel to the president.

Rosa Brooks––Professor of Law and Policy at Georgetown University; adjunct senior scholar at West Point’s Modern War Institute; author of Tangled Up in Blue: Policing the American City.

David Cohen––From 2002 to 2014, New York Police Department Deputy Commissioner of Intelligence; 35 years at the CIA; former Deputy Director of the CIA for Operations, and Associate Deputy Direct for Intelligence.

Matthew G. Devost––CEO and Co-Founder of OODA LLC, a global advisory firm on security, technology, and intelligence matters; Adjunct Professor at Columbia University teaching cybersecurity and business risk.

Horace Frank––34-year veteran of the Los Angeles Police Department; former Assistant Chief, Director of Special Operations; former commanding officer, Information and Technology Bureau.

Donell Harvin––former Chief of Homeland Security and Intelligence, overseeing the Fusion Intelligence Center at the Homeland Security and Emergency Management Agency, Washington DC: Visiting Scientist at Harvard University.

Brian Michael Jenkins––Senior advisor to the president of the RAND Corporation; former director of research on political violence; former adviser to the National Commission on Terrorism; former officer, U.S. Army Special Forces.

Terrence K. Kelly––Former Vice President of the RAND Corporation and first director of the RAND Homeland Security Research Division; former U.S. Army officer; Director, U.S. Joint Strategic Planning Assessment Office in Baghdad.

Cathy L. Lanier––Former Chief of Police with the Washington DC Metro Police Department; former commanding officer of Homeland Security and Counter-Terrorism; Senior Vice President and Director of Security for the NFL.

Michael E. Leiter––Longest serving head of the National Counterterrorism Center; former Deputy Chief of Staff in the Office of the Director of National Intelligence; former Assistant U.S. Attorney in the Eastern District of Virginia.

Stephan C. Margolis––40-year veteran of the Los Angeles Police Department where he directed the nation’s second-largest anti-terrorist unit and established the first transnational organized crime police unit.

Jim McDonnell––Elected in 2014 as 32nd Sheriff of Los Angeles County, leading the country’s largest sheriff’s department; former Chief of Long Beach Police Department; previously 29-year veteran of Los Angeles Police Department.

John S. Pistole––26 years in the FBI; former FBI Executive Assistant Director for National Security, then Deputy Director of the FBI until his appointment as head of the Transportation Security Agency; president of Anderson University.

David F. Ronfeldt––Senior national security analyst with 35 years at the RAND Corporation; specialist on information and network-centric conflict; author of numerous books and reports on governance, cyberspace, and conflict

John P. Sullivan––a 30-year veteran of the Los Angeles Sheriff’s Department; created the Threat Early Warning group, which after 9/11 became the prototype for the nation’s intelligence fusion centers; Senior Fellow at Small Wars Journal.

Heather J. Williams–Senior Policy Researcher at the RAND Corporation; served 13 years in the Intelligence Community; served multiple overseas tours supporting Special Operations Forces counterterrorism operations.  

Several other officials and scholars participated in the workshops and contributed to the report, but they are not named for reasons related to their current positions or circumstances.

Key Findings

Violence appears more likely during the 2024 election cycle than it has in any election since 1968––a tumultuous year marked by political assassinations and widespread riots. In early 2024, a small circle of active and former senior law enforcement officers, intelligence officials, national security analysts, and legal scholars––motivated by their shared concern for the nation’s future––got together to exchange views about the country’s readiness to deal with political violence during the forthcoming elections.

Governors and state secretaries of state bear responsibility for the peaceful conduct of elections. And since local police will be the first responders to most incidents, including large-scale disorders, city and county authorities also play a key role in preparedness and decisions. Time is short, but practical efforts can be made at the state and local levels to mitigate the prospects of political violence in the upcoming election cycle.

Key findings of this report include:

(1) Election violence could erode confidence in the electoral process itself and lead to widespread cynicism and indifference to the loss of our most fundamental right––the right to elect our own leaders.

(2) The guardrails that governed political behavior in the past have come down; threats, intimidation, and even violent confrontations are accepted as legitimate political discourse; speech that promotes, implies, or justifies violence has become common.

(3) The commercial incentives and algorithms of social media platforms are being exploited to deepen differences and promote extremism.

(4) Threats against public officials at all levels have dramatically increased.

(5) Voters, candidates, election officials, especially frontline poll workers, must be protected.

(6) The 2024 elections are witnessing unprecedented disinformation: hostile foreign influence operations are being conducted by Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea.

(7) Understanding threats to candidates and the electoral system is necessary to thwart plots that could endanger lives or provoke overreaction, retaliation, and escalation. However, the collection and analysis of information on threats are more constrained owing to changes in public perceptions of the threat, political polarization, and distrust of government.

(8) Election officials and law enforcement cannot assume they will have tactical intelligence regarding threats, violence, and other disruptions; in most cases, authorities will be reacting to events, putting the burden on local police.

(9) There is an assumption that after the events of the 2020 election cycle, we are better prepared to deal with possible disruptions during the forthcoming elections––we are not.

(10) Aggressive federal intervention in local violence is likely to be useless and escalatory.