Strategic Foresight: The OODA Guides to Scenario Planning

Scenario planning is a critical discipline for organizations seeking to navigate uncertainty with confidence. Rather than attempting to predict a single future, scenario planning helps decision-makers consider a range of plausible outcomes shaped by key drivers of change—such as technology disruption, geopolitical shifts, regulatory evolution, or climate volatility. This process enables leaders to stress-test strategies, identify early warning signs, and make more resilient decisions in the face of ambiguity. By framing decisions within potential future contexts, scenario planning empowers organizations to move from reactive to proactive postures.

In today’s fast-changing environment, where traditional models of stability are increasingly obsolete, scenario planning is no longer a luxury—it’s a necessity. Businesses that integrate scenario thinking into their strategic cycles gain a crucial advantage: the ability to adapt faster, seize emerging opportunities, and protect against blindside risks. This resource aggregates OODA’s most relevant articles, case studies, and tools on scenario planning, providing business and government leaders with the insight and structure needed to build futures-informed strategies.

The entire OODA Loop site has been built to inform decisions with actionable intelligence. We have also produced several references designed to accelerate your scenario planning.

OODA Guides to Scenario Planning

An Executive’s Guide to Scenario Planning for Strategic Decision-making: This guide outlines how executives can use scenario planning to better anticipate change, navigate uncertainty, and make more informed strategic decisions. It emphasizes frameworks for building resilient strategies amid disruption and complexity.

The New Tariff Era: Navigating Disruption with Strategic Foresight: This article provides a strategic view on navigating economic and geopolitical risks in a time of shifting global tariffs. It encourages executives to use foresight tools to adapt to changing trade landscapes and mitigate long-term risks.

Foresight Strategy and Scenario Planning: Methods and Models for Assessing Future Risks and Opportunities: An overview of proven models and methods for applying foresight in enterprise risk management and strategic growth. It serves as a resource for leaders seeking structure in long-term planning amid uncertainty.

Strategic Foresight and Scenario Planning for Emerging Critical Risks: A Framework for Anticipation and Adaptation: This post offers a practical framework to anticipate and adapt to emerging threats in fields like cybersecurity, AI, and geopolitics. It helps executives institutionalize foresight thinking for proactive rather than reactive decision-making.

Applying GPTs and LLMs to Scenario Planning: This post examines how generative AI tools like GPTs can enhance scenario planning by accelerating analysis, idea generation, and risk detection. It offers guidance on integrating these tools into executive workflows for strategic advantage.

Decision Intelligence and Establishing an Intelligent Enterprise: The greatest determinant of your success will be the quality of your decisions. We examine frameworks for understanding and reducing risk while enabling opportunities. Topics include Black Swans, Gray Rhinos, Foresight, Strategy, Stratigames, Business Intelligence and Intelligent Enterprises. Leadership in the modern age is also a key topic in this domain.

Other resources that can accelerate your scenario planning:

OODA Weekly Dispatch: Tariffs and Scenario Planning in an era of tech disruption: The dispatch explores how evolving tariff policies intersect with global tech disruption, urging executives to incorporate these dynamics into their scenario planning. It highlights actionable foresight methods to prepare for policy shocks and supply chain instability.

What Executives Need To Know About The 2025 Annual Threat Assessment From the U.S. Intelligence Community: A breakdown of key national security risks highlighted in the 2025 Threat Assessment, including geopolitical tensions, cyber threats, and disruptive technologies. It offers practical takeaways for executive leaders to integrate into risk management and planning.

OODA Almanac 2025 – Whiplash: The Almanac presents a high-level review of global trends likely to drive strategic “whiplash” in 2025, from tech breakthroughs to societal volatility. It’s designed to help leaders build agility into their planning and avoid being caught off guard.

Scenario Planning and the Paradox of Warning: “War Game”, Current Scenarios and the U.S. Threat Matrix: Explores how scenario planning and war games reveal the paradox of warning—how even clear signals often go unheeded. It underscores the importance of acting on foresight to avoid strategic surprise.

Potential Future Opportunities, Risks and Mitigation Strategies in the Age of Continuous Crisis: In a world defined by overlapping crises, this post presents strategic foresight approaches for identifying emerging opportunities and mitigating compounding risks. It stresses the need for adaptable planning to thrive in perpetual disruption.