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Informing your decisions with actionable intelligence
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Informing your decisions with actionable intelligence
What is the value of an informed decision? At OODA Loop, we seek to surface decision intelligence that provides meaningful perspective for leaders and analysts looking to make the most informed decisions possible. This list below represent developments that fit the category of operating in a VUCA world, identifying and responding to Gray Rhino risks, or opportunities from advancements in emerging technology domains. These are issues we think our members should be tracking and map to collection requirements for our team to keep you as informed as possible. This report is updated throughout the year with the goal of providing a quick reference for corporate boards and their directors in need of strategic insights. CEOs and other C-Suite leaders can use this list to update and shape strategies and actions.
We categorize and summarize these big trends into Geopolitical Issues, Technology Trends, Cyber Risk Issues, and Recommendations for Action.
The rise of great power competition and related changes in the international scene are causing changes to corporate risk and opportunities. Businesses have already had to adopt to new sanction regimes, new supply chain disruptions and new hostilities in cyberspace. Expect far more of this type of disruption. Also expect new opportunities, including the opportunity to serve the national security needs of open societies like the US, EU, Japan, ROK, India and many parts of South East Asia.
Modern great power competition is not only on topics like land and geopolitical disputes. Food, water, raw materials like rare-earth elements and technology are front and center in this competition.
The Russian aggression against Ukraine will have enduring impacts far beyond the region. All companies and all government organizations (including those at local and state levels) should evaluate the potential impact of these hostilities on operations. We are a nation interconnected with the world by complex supply chains and a global high speed internet and must be ready to deal with impacts.
There are many aspects of this to consider. For examine, the fact that many sanctions on Russia were initiated by corporations means Russia may consider these corporations as legitimate targets for attack, including cyber attack and attack against ownership of property inside Russia. Physical attack is thought less likely but should also be assessed as a potential now.
Meanwhile this war has opened the eyes of many in the free world to other threats including the threat from China. This is will very likely lead to more support for collective security alliances like NATO and also to higher levels of investment in defense for many free nations. The traditional (since the end of WWII) stance of Japan to have only a self defense force may soon end, and its shunning of nuclear weapons may also be up for question, something that was unthinkable just months ago. Japan has already dramatically increased its defense budget because of this.
Short term this war has spooked investors, caused massive sanctions against Russia that also impacted western businesses, interrupted supply of food from Ukraine to Europe and Africa, is slowing all Russian oil production (which may one day almost totally cease due to lack of western tech support) and caused increases in government spending at a time when deficits are already out of control.
The invasion is also causing some cracks in Russia’s relationship with Kazakhstan, which has for the most part been in Russia’s orbit until recently. Russia is now blocking the transport of Kazakhstan oil and gas to Europe, which Kazakhstan did not want to happen. Recall that Russia helped put down revolt in Kazakhstan in January just before the invasion. China’s relationship with Russia is changing because of the war. Xi’s visit to Russia in March 2023 resulted in many photo ops and pleasantries, but the outcomes make it pretty clear that China has no intention of backing Russia up and will likely continue to abuse the relationship with Russia. Russia has now agreed to settle many transactions with China in the Yuan.
For additional resources see:
Global Risk and Geopolitical Sensemaking.
Thinking Strategically About What Comes Next and How To Mitigate Risk
The increasingly bleak economic prospects in China are not a surprise to China watchers. And shifting demographics will make things even worse with fewer workers and consumers to support an aging populace.
China’s structural economic weaknesses continue to deepen. Growth is slower, deflation and property distress are persistent, demographics are deteriorating faster than expected, and foreign capital and supply chains are quietly reallocating away from the PRC. These trends increase systemic risk to the global economy and elevate the odds that Beijing leans more heavily on coercive economic tools, cyber operations, and information control to manage internal stress and external competition.
The ongoing tariff and trade wars is not playing out in a way the PRC expected or seems ready to respond to.
China is now wrestling simultaneously with property‑sector deleveraging, local‑government debt stress, weak household confidence, and signs of entrenched deflationary pressure. Headline growth figured provided by the government remains near the official ~5% target, but leading institutions increasingly disagree with that number. Many warn of a Japan‑style stagnation path. Others believe recession and deflation are in store.
Demographic decline is no longer a forecast risk; it is now a realized drag on growth and social stability. At the same time, youth unemployment and underemployment remain elevated, even after Beijing changed how it reports the data.
The cumulative effect of COVID lockdowns, regulatory crackdowns, data‑security laws, and geopolitical friction is a recalibration of global exposure to China.
Economic weakness does not automatically translate into moderation; it can just as easily fuel external risk‑taking or sharpen coercive tactics below the threshold of war.
The extensive dependencies of the entire world on China means economic weakness could pose significant concern. Some of the worse case scenarios could involve an almost total shutdown of industrial production, which would force a devastating restructuring of the global economy and lead to unpredictable outcomes. Since worst case scenarios can certainly come true, we recommend business and government leaders begin asking focused questions on what a PRC economic crisis might mean for supply chains.
Leaders will want to stress‑test their exposure to a major PRC economic crisis. Considerations:
There are obvious questions we are watching regarding how the war in Ukraine will impact China and their potential operations against Taiwan. We are watching this closely.
The evolution of the Internet has provided extremists from multiple geographies with new ways to privately interact to share tactics, plans and coordinate intentions. This networked extremism is a growing threat. It is closely related to the rise in self radicalization seen across western democracies.
These same technologies are enabling new business models of crime. And agile criminals are quicker than ever to exploit current geopolitical events to further their objectives, which is helping to drive a convergence of crime and corruption. The trend towards distributed computing and distributed finance that is providing so many features and benefits to good people is also providing new benefits to bad people and this is also complicating the situation.
In the age of Covid, corruption in the developing world has grown. Corruption in kleptocracies remains a baseline part of governance. And as long as corruption is such a driver in both kleptocracies and so many other countries it will be a major force impeding human progress and disrupting business potential.
Food security is becoming a critical factor in geopolitics. The US seems better positioned than most as a net exporter of food, but with enduring drought in the midwest there are concerns and risks that need to be mitigated. Riots in Sri Lanka which have resulted in the resignation of the prime minister is one early example of what the impact of poor food security can bring.
Inflation is also directly related to food security. If people cannot afford to buy food they do not have individual food security. A salient example is the situation in Argentina, where inflation is currently running at an annual rate of 70%. This runaway inflation is causing massive protests. It is not hard to see this type of stress on other nations, including Turkey, which has an annual inflation rate nearing 80%. India could be another. Officially India’s inflation rate is 7% but it has a high debt and is totally dependent on others for imports of oil and other commodities.
Riots are being seen in many other regions. In Kenya the rallying cry at current protests is “no food, no elections!” and people are marching with bowls they expect to be filled.
Looking at the trends in geopolitical tensions, cost of oil/gas (used in fertilizer production) and conflict in Ukraine, it is pretty clear that a global food crisis is gong to hit every continent. In North America we will have it better than others. Here we will complain about not getting out of season fruits or not having our usual variety. But in most other regions it will be a very real fight to avoid mass starvation and widespread malnutrition. Unfortunately, famine is coming for many (Russia and China are both trying to shape blame on this famine to be on the US).
It is puzzling and counter intuitive that in this age of increasing food security issues and inflation there is so little being done to improve the situation. Many actions by leaders are actually counter productive, like shutting down nuclear power plants vice building more, or forcing farmers to reduce nitrogen use to try to reduce atmospheric carbon (cause of dutch protests). There are other methods of reducing nitrogen use besides just dictating reduction, including innovative new technologies for capturing nitrogen for agriculture.
The demographic time-bomb impacting industrialized nations has been tracked for decades and now is suddenly impacting global economies. The demographics of most industrialized nations have shifted so there are fewer working age people and more retirement age people. Japan is one of the first major industrialized nations to start to see the impact of graying, but this is a problem for all nations. It is a significant concern for China which has the fastest aging society in history.
The rapidly advancing pace of technology is reflected in the dramatically changing capabilities available in the marketplace today. This is changing the competitive landscape, changing the potential capabilities of your internal architecture, and changing the expectations of your potential clients/customers. In this age of dramatic advancements all should ensure appropriate measures are being put in place to understanding these potential market disruptions and changes to the competitive landscape. The best way to model out potential future disruptions is to examine drivers of tech, which should include assessments of future user/customer demands. For more see: Advanced Technology Sensemaking
When planning the impact of technology on your business or office workflows, it is important to take a look at the convergence of multiple technologies towards mission impact. Do this by maintaining at least a conversational knowledge of every major tech domain and an ability to contemplate how these domains will interact in the near future.
The excitement over ChatGPT and Large Language Models has given way to concern that humanity is rushing too fast into an AI enabled world. The Future of Life Institute published a letter signed by 1000’s of AI experts calling for a new debate over governance of AI and a pause of certain developments while AI is being built. The OODA network has examined what can go wrong with AI and have a series of references here. There are clearly concerns with the negative impacts of AI, but also clear benefits which are often not articulated by those who call out the risks. Our view is both opportunities and risks should be considered, with appropriate governance being put in place to mitigate the risks.
Although still early in the S-Curve, the growing capabilities of automation, including those provided by Artificial Intelligence, Robotics and Robotic Process Automation, are providing positive business benefits and shifting how organizations operate. These efficiencies are needed now more than ever and this will likely accelerate their growth.
New sensors, including new sensors leveraging quantum effects, are changing healthcare and the national security sector and will soon become more widespread and impact wider swaths of the economy.
The benefits of advanced WiFi and Cellular communications and space based communications will improve the ability of organizations to disperse and further support distributed workforces. WiFI and Cellular advancements in particular are also enabling direct device to device communications in ways that will help optimize deployed robotics and advanced manufacturing.
The applications and compute foundation which has enabled knowledge workers to work from anywhere is now an important component of the nation’s infrastructure with impacts discussed further below.
This topic is directly linked to geopolitics and is reviewed above in the context of great power competition. But is should also be viewed from the lens of the technology and changes we should put in place to minimize disruption. The computer chip shortages of 2021 have caused disruptions to parts of the tech sector and several automotive brands, but overall the impact has not been hard on consumers or militaries. This could change if there is a crisis that causes more issues in supply. This is a topic of growing importance to wargame out and will be the topic of additional reporting at OODAloop in the coming months (we examine scenarios for global computer chip supply chain disruption in this Stratigame).
For over a decade enterprises have focused on ways to optimize the use of large data sets using new algorithms and storage and processing capabilities. This Big Data movement remains important. But there are indications that not enough attention has been placed on the need to analyze smaller data sets where traditional machine learning capabilities are not optimized. The need to analyze small data, accurately, may be of growing importance if the chip shortages discussed above cause even larger disruptions.
Whether data is small or large, most all high end AI/ML capabilities need to be trained. The cost to do this training is rapidly declining, with ARK finance showing data that indicates the cost to train ML models is declining at twice the rate of Moore’s law. This is a good spot to be in for those seeking to use AI to disrupt and continue to improve business models.
Other key breakthroughs include the use of unsupervised learning in new methods of natural language processing. Savvy tech strategists may find this to be the most disruptive of all tech developments. For more see: What Leaders Need to Know About the State of Natural Language Processing
Recent reports of a breakthrough in room-temperature ambient pressure superconductors (RTAPS) have rightfully stirred excitement. Yet it’s just one piece of the vast innovation puzzle that materials science is solving. Here are five other breakthroughs that are on track to make significant impacts on our lives within the coming decade:
Reprocessable Materials: Sustainability will take on a new meaning as reprocessable plastics, resins, and polymers reshape not only the automotive and healthcare sectors but also consumer goods manufacturing.
Energy Storage Innovations: From solid-state batteries to advanced supercapacitors, energy storage advances promise to boost efficiency in homes, electric vehicles, and even grid systems.
Smart Textiles: With the emergence of health-monitoring clothes and self-healing fabrics, industries from healthcare to fashion and sports will experience a paradigm shift.
3D Printing Materials: High-performance thermoplastics and metal alloys for 3D printing are set to disrupt manufacturing in aerospace, medical technology, and even the construction sector.
Perovskites: This material’s versatility extends to sectors such as solar power, LED technology, lasers, and quantum computing, creating a ripple effect of innovation.
A convergence of market forces, new SEC regulations, a new white house strategy and pending legislation make it clear, corporate boards and their directors will be held responsible for cyber risks in their organizations. For more see:
What Corporate Directors Need To Know About Coming SEC Cybersecurity Rules
The Digital Directors Network: Helping corporate boards mitigate systemic risk
Every Director of Every Corporate Board Should Read What Larry Fink Writes
How to Manage Cyber Risk as a Board Director
Over the last two decades as every region of the world and every corner of humanity has increased Internet access, regional issues have increasingly impacted events in cyberspace. This has evolved to the point where every major issue is a cyber issue and cyber risks must be considered as top tier risks for corporate and government leaders. We report on cyber issues on a daily basis and every single day we see this connection between geopolitical risks and cyber risks strengthen.
The technology of ransomware has evolved in sophistication and the business models of the criminal groups behind it have as well. The result: The threat from ransomware has reached pandemic proportions. Fortunately there are things that can be done to mitigate this threat. For more see: An update on the nature of the ransomware threat
Over the last several decades both government and business leaders have sought ways to measure and comprehend both cyber risk and cyber security. Today there are many metrics in these domains, but few are really actionable in assessing the true state of security. In the end it seems that the only assessment that can be made is wether a given system can be broken, there can never be an assessment that a system cannot be broken. But assessments can be made that inform and prioritize actions to reduce risk.
There is a need for understanding of the cyber dynamic beyond just building action plans to mitigate risk. Companies, governments and citizens need an ability to understand the state of cybersecurity in context of cyber threats. This type of net assessment has always been hard and, due to the now ubiquitous nature of modern technology, is getting harder to make with confidence.
The fact that so many sudden changes are happening at the same time complicates situational awareness and can impede optimal decision making, which leads to our most important recommendation. Every organization should assess the current approaches to collecting the right information, assessing it and making informed decisions. For more insights into this see our series on Decision Intelligence.
A trend we have previously articulated for OODA members is the rapid increase in events that are described in terms of being the most significant in history. Clearly criminals and nations in cyberspace are unrelenting. But leaders should be aware that there are things that can be done to make it harder on adversaries. Mitigating cyber risks takes awareness and action not just from the IT department and CISO but the entire leadership team. The government has a role to play too, but we never advise waiting for the results of any government action (for decades the government has had an “on again, off again” approach to working with industry to help reduce risks). For more, including actionable advice from practitioners on how to mitigate risks, see: Cybersecurity Sensemaking
The FBI and CISA have issued multiple warnings about cyber threats. This underscores that security and its leaders have to be always on. Coverage over weekends and holidays is critical. Build your teams for long term endurance. Burnout can be an issue for many so make it a conscious choice to build in rest and recovery time for your people. For more see: What Corporate Directors Need To Know About Coming SEC Cybersecurity Rules and How to Manage Cyber Risk as a Board Director
Businesses now face more than traditional competitive challenges. In the age of continuous crisis there are exogenous threats that must be avoided or mitigated, including many that are just too hard to even try to predict. Tracking risks closely underscores the need for Scenario Planning to inform corporate decision-making. Scenario planning is needed now more than ever. Scenario planning is a methodology for helping leaders think through alternative futures in a way that enables identification of issues. It raises potential outcomes and impacts and helps conceptualize potential risks and opportunities so organizations can be better prepared. We strongly encourage every company, large or small, to set aside dedicated time to focus on ways to improve your ability to understand the nature of the significantly changed risk environment we are all operating in today, and then assess how your organizational thinking should change. For more see: Corporate Sensemaking: Establishing an Intelligent Enterprise
Scenarios should be informed with fact based assessments and observations on strengths and weaknesses of the economy. In the US, the economy will be in a period of turmoil and recession, but may bounce back quicker and in a better position than most others. The US has many advantages including geography, natural resources, agriculture and a system supporting innovation. Recommend that during the coming turmoil businesses should plan for scenarios that include a recovery to a system that is more resilient, more productive and more sustainable than ever before.
The trend towards reshoring, nearshoring and friendshoring of existing manufacturing signals a shift for new manufacturing, not just in the US but globally. The fact that no region wants exposed supply chains means all regions will move to having local manufacturing. All regions will need to make their own products, grow their own food, produce their own energy, defend their democracy either alone or with well established alliances, and automate to support aging populations. Reshoring takes time and planning and is never simple. Many famous examples of failed reshoring exist, with many failures due to underestimating complexity. Extensive analysis needs to be done and this takes time for engineering, design, production, finance, procurement.
(last updated 2 Jan 2026)
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Informing your decisions with actionable intelligence
Informing your decisions with actionable intelligence