Our current update on the events in Russia is lean and mean  – and two-fold over two standalone posts:

1. Cutting straight to the chase on the what and why of the Wagner Group Retreat; and
2. Putting President Vladimir Putin’s Address to the Russian People officially into our record here in the OODA Loop database.  So far, It is one of the few historical facts of record that will remain unchanged.

The title of this post is a quote from an NBC field correspondent – a “Murky Internal Power Struggle” – to describe the mechanisms around and the ‘deal’ which prompted the Wagner Group withdrawal.  We explore that murkiness further below.

Another compelling quote came from NBC’s Meet the Press host Chuck Todd – which quantified the capture of Rostov-on-Don as the equivalent of “capturing USCENTCOM in Tampa.”  A bit of a stretch, but thought-provoking.

Russian dissident Masha Gessen observed that “all coups are a game of cat and mouse.”  While CNN host Fareed Zakaria and Easter Europe commentator Anne Applebaum went with a description of the initial rebellion and the charge to within 200 miles and two hours travel time to the Russian Capitol as “a kind of mad escapade” – which feels reductive at first blush.

The larger, future-forward question and risk awareness we encourage our readership to track based on recent events:

• With the exponential growth of Generative AI  – and video-based deep fakes, also created through AI  –  in 6 months, and 8 months (and in and around the American presidential election in just over 16 months) what is going to be the authenticity (the “realness”) of the short form video “units of information exchange” we were all beholden to in the last 36 hours if a similar real-time crisis ensues?  See “Every Business Leader Should Know About the Recent Deep Fake Experience of Bill Browder.”
• The information threat vectors and cyber attack surface have been expanded.   Be on the lookout for how recent events have ginned up the tactical and strategic activity of Advanced Persistent Threats (APTs) and non-state cyber actors in the field – on all sides of this multi-sided hybrid conflict. Early last week, before the events in Russia, White House Deputy National Security Adviser Anne Neuberger at the FT Cyber Resilience Summit in Washington, voiced concern that Ukraine is already experiencing a ‘surge’ in cyberattacks as it executes counteroffensive.  Watch this space.

Finally, to further inform all your tracking and scenarios: to quote the title of Peter Pomerantsev’s seminal book on the ethos and inner workings of the Russian petro-klepto-state – always keep in mind, that when it comes to Russia:   ‘Nothing Is True and Everything Is Possible’ and we now have a real-time window into the “Surreal Heart of the New Russia.”

 The Wagner Group Retreat:  This was not Malta, Camp David, or Oslo

Amazing how fast a case can be dropped in a kleptocracy where the rule of law is imaginary. https://t.co/UFkDkzFPw6

— Bob Gourley (@bobgourley) June 24, 2023

About the Putin-Prigozhin "deal":

After the assassination of Julius Caesar, Caesar's supporters and Caesar's assassins negotiated an amnesty. The assassins went into voluntary exile. Caesar's supporters promptly reneged, revoked the amnesty – and hunted the assassins to death.

— David Frum (@davidfrum) June 26, 2023

Nothing in Russian history – or world history for that matter – speaks to an amicable negotiation of a retreat by coup forces.   But, to emphasize: Russian history really does not speak to such a precedent.

Trusted sources have begun to parse the matter in frameworks, norms, and negotiation techniques that are closer to the prison yard at San Quentin and Lefortovo Prison than to Harvard Business School, the U.S. State Department, or the United Nations:

https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1672680055326089216

https://twitter.com/BeijingPalmer/status/1672671971690303488

OODA Network member JD Work actually discourages the cognitive biases inherent in this gangster framework suggested above.  He encourages us to dig historically deeper:

Gang warfare is the wrong analogy to what we have seen over the past 24 hours. It is a simple argument seductive in its reductionism. But this elides the complex military dimensions of the organizations supporting both factions wielding a kind of sovereignty we have not grappled…

— JD Work (@HostileSpectrum) June 25, 2023

In a substack post, Princeton Professor Timothy Snyder  – “Prigozhin’s March on Moscow”  – put together a list of ten takeaways from the last 72 hours, leading with the perspective of the Russian “Man on the Street” vis a vis the Russian gangster ruling class:

1.  Putin is not popular.  All the opinion polling we have takes place in an environment where his power is seen as more or less inevitable and where answering the question the wrong way seems risky.  But when Putin’s power was lifted, as when the city of Rostov-on-Don was seized by Wagner, no one seemed to mind.  Reacting to Prigozhin’s mutiny, some Russians were euphoric, and most seemed apathetic.  What was not to be seen was anyone in any Russian city spontaneously expressing their personal support for Putin, let alone anyone taking any sort of personal risk on behalf of his regime.

The euphoria suggests to me that some Russians are ready to be ruled by a different exploitative regime.  The apathy indicates that most Russians at this point just take for granted that they will be ruled by the gangster with the most guns, and will just go on with their daily lives regardless of who that gangster happens to be. 

Finally, OODA CTO Bob Gourley also encourages the following:

Let me be the first to say I had no idea things would develop the way they did over the last 24 hours. However, I did know to not lock into any assessment and to seek to think through multiple scenarios. Here are some favorite ways to do that: https://t.co/5pW2WR349o @ooda

— Bob Gourley (@bobgourley) June 24, 2023

Additional Resources To Help Assess This Situation In Russia:

The OODA Almanac: Everything we are seeing here is taking place within a framework we articulated in this Almanac. Review to put all current events into context.

The Annual Threat Assessment of the Intelligence Community: Provides strategic insight into the desires, capabilities and intentions of hostile nations and the environment they operate in.

The OODA C-Suite Report: An overview of the many key topics we recommend C-Suite leaders track with updated assessments on the global geopolitical environment, the cyber threat and technological risk.

The Ukraine-Russia War Twitter List: A list of vetted experts to follow.

https://oodaloop.com/archive/2023/06/25/vladimir-putins-early-morning-address-to-the-russian-people-saturday-june-24-2023/

https://oodaloop.com/archive/2023/06/23/will-there-be-a-coup-in-russia/

https://oodaloop.com/archive/2022/03/11/dr-scott-shumate-profiles-russian-president-vladimir-putin/

https://oodaloop.com/archive/2023/06/12/every-business-leader-should-know-about-the-recent-deep-fake-experience-of-bill-browder/

The Wagner Group’s presence  in Africa is mentioned in the post below in the context of the recent strife in Sudan:

https://oodaloop.com/archive/2023/05/01/seven-crucial-global-power-shifts-displacements-risks-and-uncertainties-playing-out-in-sudan/