Some Personal Observations On The Big Tech Trends

When I write about tech it is hard to contain my enthusiasm. I catch myself writing about advancements like a zealot, with sentences full of hyperbole. With that in mind I wanted to let you know I have toned down this following sentence significantly from its first several versions:  

I believe the world stands on the brink of an age of tech abundance, an era marked by unprecedented technological advancements, promising significant improvements in productivity, sustainability, and quality of life. 

I also believe there are things we can do to accelerate the age of abundance, but, as illogical as it sounds, there are factions that would like to slow progress. Those of us that want these advancements to come sooner vice later should consider what actions we can take to accelerate, including how to push back on those that want to pause for illogical reasons.

The overview below captures some of the developments we have been tracking at OODAloop.com plus some personal observations. I would love your feedback on any of this. What major themes have I overlooked? Would also appreciate any insights you have on how we can accelerate these great changes. 

Major Tech Domains

The biggest catalysts of our transformation to an age of abundance are in the categories of 

• Artificial Intelligence (especially AGI)
• Energy
• Advanced Robotics
• Transportation
• Space Technology
• Biotechnology
• Healthcare
• Agriculture
• Quantum Technologies
• Defense Technologies

Some context and discussion of each follows.

Artificial Intelligence

Assume for purposes of this article that artificial intelligence is improving and advancing all the other tech topics reviewed below. The art form in applying AI to the many tech trends below is ensuring the right tools are being used for the right task. This takes human expertise, for now. But one day soon we will have AI that decides what AI to apply. I am referring to A new advanced AI which the tech community has named AGI, for Artificial General Intelligence. The concept of AGI has been evolving over time, but today it is used to describe AI that can perform at human levels across multiple domains of knowledge and also keep learning on its own. AGI will be able to adapt to new situations, use reasoning and be proactive. 

No serious researchers or builders today use the term AGI to imply machine consciousness. But still this will be an incredible breakthrough that will be something different than ever seen before. Today’s narrow AI tools like generative AI and natural language processing are incredible already, but they are just hints at what is to come. I believe we can get to the age of abundance without AGI, but having it will get us there faster, so I most strongly support those who pursue this goal and most strongly condemn the uninformed who are seeking to stop or decelerate AGI (this is a big reason I find myself aligning so closely with the precepts of the Effective Acceleration (e/acc) movement. 

One of the things we can all do to help accelerate AGI and other advanced AI approaches is to think through the use cases we would personally like to see from these systems, both for our personal lives and for humanity (see: Accelerating AGI: Why we should all want it sooner vice later).

Energy Technology Innovations

Energy technology is making remarkable strides. Regarding nuclear fission reactors, the majority of the nuclear reactors today are super old fashioned, conceptualized in the 1950s and built in the 1970s. New more modern fission reactors have now been approved by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission. They are less expensive to build, even safer than the super safe old style, and if executed well can transform our power grid. Research into nuclear fusion is getting even more exciting. Progress has been made in national level efforts but even more exciting is the progress being seen in startups (notable examples include Commonwealth Fusion, TAE Tech, Helion, Tokamak, Avalanche Fusion). My personal belief is that within 3 years we will see one of these startups succeed in producing useful power from fusion.   

Battery technology is also evolving rapidly. Breakthroughs in solid-state batteries, lithium-sulfur, and other advanced battery technologies are increasing energy storage capacity, reducing costs, and enhancing the efficiency of electric vehicles and renewable energy systems. Additionally, improvements in wind and solar energy, including advancements in photovoltaic efficiency, perovskite solar cells, and offshore wind technologies, are making renewable energy more affordable and widespread. The sad news is the China has stolen a march on the U.S. in terms of wind and solar energy, but the good news is that we can be fast followers there. 

Imagine what it will mean for our economy and for other innovations if we were assured of abundant energy and half the cost of what we pay today? Imagine the impact if the cost drops to zero, which it may well in our lifetimes. 

The many great trends in energy and the need to move faster are one of the reasons I was so excited to read the SCSP announcement of the Commission of the Scaling of Fusion Energy. 

Advanced Manufacturing and Robotics

Manufacturing is coming back to the U.S. and also to more friendly nations (reshoring and friendshoring).  This major refactoring of supply chains was likely going to happen anyway due to the recognition of the failures of relying on China to build everything. But at the same time new technologies are now available to enable modernization of factories as they are being built. This tech includes advanced manufacturing, robotics, additive manufacturing techniques and better automation/connectivity. The integration of IoT, AI, and robotics in manufacturing is leading to the development of smart factories, which can optimize production processes in real-time, enhancing efficiency and reducing costs.

How can we measure the dramatic growth in U.S. based manufacturing? Here is a chart I believe that tells a huge story:

This reflects data on construction spending on manufacturing in the U.S. A quick glance says something is up. A slower read indicates construction on new manufacturing in the U.S. is three times the normal amount!. This sort of spending so fast in such a focused domain is certainly inflationary on the short term. But just imagine how deflationary and virtuous it will be when all these new factories start cranking out great things we all need and want. This alone would prove my point about the coming age of abundance. 

Another advanced automation factor to consider is the deployment of advanced robotics in other industries. Service robots, designed for industries like healthcare, hospitality, and retail, are enhancing customer experiences and providing assistance in various tasks. Collaborative robots (cobots) that work alongside human workers are improving safety and efficiency in diverse sectors, from manufacturing to healthcare. There are already signs that robots will be transforming logistics (have you seen the videos of robots in Amazon warehouses?)

Transportation Innovations

Transportation technology is undergoing a significant transformation. The rapid development of electric vehicles (EVs), driven by Tesla and some followers, is making EVs more affordable, longer-range, and faster-charging. Advances in the AI brains of these cars and the vision sensors that inform the AI are already changing the driving experience. I drive a Model 3 with this advanced driving tech and know for a fact it makes me more productive. During my commute, if I decide to listen to a book or podcast I can retain more. If I decide to dictate a note draft article I can do so with ease. When I arrive at my destination I am never tired out from the drive. And this is all with a very early version of an end to end neural network. Imagine the day when it is really fully autonomous. There is also an economic impact of the safety of these new smart vehicles. Imagine a day when there are no more traffic fatalities.  

Other coming transportation initiatives include small cabin flying vehicles and new commercially produced supersonic aircraft. These developments will make the world a smaller place helping us all better collaborate and coordinate on how to accelerate technologies. 

Space Technology Breakthroughs

Space technology is progressing at an extraordinary pace. How many of us still marvel every time a SpaceX rocket returns itself to earth? I sure do, and now with the massive Starship, designed to take people and supplies to the moon and beyond, we have yet another great rocket to marvel at. This is like magic. These rockets are so transformational to an entire industry. The biggest benefits of new ways to access space will come in future decades when the moon is mined, asteroids are captured and manufacturing is done in space, but we are already seeing benefits in terms of better global connectivity, better observation of earth and better research into advanced sciences that will be required for further space exploration and exploitation

Biotechnology Advances

Biotechnology is revolutionizing healthcare, medicine, agriculture and event manufacturing and materials science. Precision gene-editing technologies like CRISPR are allowing for targeted modifications of DNA, leading to potential cures for genetic diseases, enhancements to human performance, and new ways to feed humanity. The field of synthetic biology, which involves designing and constructing new biological parts, devices, and systems, is paving the way for breakthroughs in drug production, sustainable biofuels, and biodegradable materials. All this is coming faster than most are ready for. These breakthroughs build upon 100’s of years of science and also the three decades long revolution in IT, including newer AI solutions.

For more on this see: The OODA Special Report: Executive’s Guide To the Revolution in Biology

Healthcare Innovations

The healthcare sector is experiencing a technological renaissance that started with the introduction of IT and has now accelerated with AI. The widespread adoption of telemedicine is improving access to healthcare, particularly in remote and underserved areas. AI algorithms are enhancing diagnostic accuracy and speed in fields like radiology, pathology, and personalized medicine. Wearable health tech, including devices and health monitors, is enabling continuous health tracking and early detection of medical conditions, significantly improving patient outcomes. All of this points to improved human productivity, which will contribute directly to the acceleration of the coming age of abundance. 

Agricultural Technology Innovations

Agricultural technology is evolving and accelerating along many fronts. The use of AI, IoT, and robots (including drones) in precision agriculture is optimizing farming practices, reducing waste, and increasing yields. Innovations in indoor and vertical farming are enabling year-round crop production with minimal land use and water consumption. Advances in genetic engineering are creating crops that are more resilient to pests, diseases, and climate change, ensuring food security in the face of environmental challenges. There are issues here today, including the cost of IT and the cost of electricity. But this is another example of how the many other trends here will work to each other’s benefit. As new fission ad fusion electricity generation comes online the cost of electricity will drop making these many agricultural benefits more impactful. 

Quantum Technology and Computing

Quantum technology is set to revolutionize computing, cybersecurity and material science. Companies like IBM and Google, and Amazon are making significant strides in quantum computing, which promises to solve complex problems far beyond the capabilities of classical computers. The development of quantum encryption methods like the use of quantum effects to generate keys and the use of quantum key distribution is poised to transform cybersecurity by providing theoretically unbreakable encryption, ensuring the protection of sensitive data in an increasingly digital world. See: The Executive’s Guide to Quantum Computing.

Defense Technology Advancements

Defense technology is advancing rapidly, enhancing national security capabilities. The bad news here is that adversaries are also benefiting from advanced technologies. The use of low cost but high tech drones by the Houtis in the Red Sea is a horrible example. The potential use of hypersonics by China is another.  Directed energy weapons, such as laser and microwave-based systems, are becoming more viable for defense against missiles, drones, and other threats. AI-driven drones and robotic systems are enhancing surveillance, reconnaissance, and combat operations, making defense forces more efficient and effective. Our challenges are to ensure the best defense tech for open societies so we can continue to build an economy that serves the free and accelerates our move to an age of abundance. Defense tech is required to keep us from slipping behind and ceding the future to those who would decelerate human freedoms. 

Concluding Thoughts 

I left so many exciting categories out of the list above. I promise to write more about material science/engineering, blockchain and scientific examination of consciousness itself, and many other exciting topics. Join us in slack to help steer our analyst and me on all these topics.

The world faces many challenges today. War, poverty, famine, disease, climate change, pollution, financial market meltdowns, debt by governments, companies and individuals. Every way I analyze our current situation, I keep coming back to the belief that the only way to improve things is to continue to accelerate technological progress. If we want a better world, support acceleration. If you want a better world faster, work to accelerate tech faster. 

Accelerating these many technologies and helping drive their convergence around solutions is the theme of OODAcon 2024. Come join us there to work these issues and help accelerate the future.