Domestic U.S. and international quantum technology infrastructure has been dramatically built out in the last seven years – since the passage of the initial Quantum Initiative Act in 2018 – with commitments to cryptography, post-quantum crypto agility, quantum networking and computing that will continue to reshape national security and federal operations. The U.S. government, military, and allied nations continue making strategic investments to maintain this edge. The convergence of quantum technology with AI, biotechnology, and cybersecurity also presents both opportunities and threats.

In this post, we “set levels” and provide a definitive, baseline analysis of major developments in the public sector quantum ecosystem (based on OODA Loop news briefs, tracking and Original Analysis that, in some cases, pre-date the launch of the National Quantum Initiative in 2018).

This synthesis and summary of our previous analysis efforts is the foundation on which we will be basing our quantum research efforts in 2025 – in what we expect to be the continuation of an accelerated timeline of developments in the private and public sector quantum ecosystem and community of practice. Stay tuned…

Summary

• Recent developments in quantum computing, cryptographic resilience, and quantum networking are reshaping cybersecurity, supply chain security, and national defense strategies.
• Key agencies, including NIST, NSA, and CISA, are driving post-quantum cryptography transitions to counter emerging threats.
• The U.S. and allied nations are also strengthening their quantum industrial base to outpace China’s quantum computing capabilities.
• Federal agencies must adapt by integrating quantum-safe encryption, preparing for new cyber threats, and leveraging quantum innovations for biotech, advanced science, deep tech, and AI applications, services, and platforms.

Why This Matters

The implications of quantum technologies for cryptographic security, critical infrastructure resilience, and defense capabilities demand a consistent and uninterrupted short-term commitment to further strengthening the U.S. Quantum Industrial Base and a strategic commitment to achieving U.S. Quantum Supremacy.

The rapid expansion of quantum technology will transform national security, global competition, interdisciplinary innovation, and cybersecurity strategies:

• Quantum computing threatens existing cryptographic infrastructure. U.S. agencies must transition to quantum-resistant encryption before adversaries exploit vulnerabilities.
• Quantum Day, aka “Q-Day”, is a scenario where “no more secrets” becomes a reality, as previously secure communications and data could be vulnerable to decryption by entities wielding quantum computational power (also known as “Quantum Supremacy”).
• China’s quantum and AI convergence may also accelerate its bid for technological dominance. U.S. federal agencies must counterbalance this trend through strategic investments.
• Quantum networking and key distribution provide next-gen secure communications. Federal missions involving defense, intelligence, and energy security will depend on these technologies.
• Quantum’s impact on AI, high-performance computing (HPC), cybersecurity, and biotech will introduce new national security dimensions. Quantum computing will accelerate breakthroughs in drug discovery, cryptography, and climate modeling – allowing for bold innovation and possible solutions to the world’s toughest problems – while simultaneously creating new threat vectors.
• The Global technology marketplace and competition will also undergo a transformation at an exponential, accelerated pace, impacting geopolitical power dynamics.

Key Points

Federal R&D strategies are shifting to prioritize quantum and AI as general purpose technologies (GPT) – recognizing their potential to reshape cybersecurity, economic structures, and national security paradigms through their gradual but accelerating broad diffusion across all industry sectors, government functions – and society in general.

1. Emerging Quantum Technologies

Throughout late 2024 and early 2025, Microsoft, Google, and Amazon AWS all announced breakthrough quantum chipsets. In quantum networking, the U.S. is leading efforts to develop next-generation secure data transmission systems, including quantum key distribution (QKD) for encrypted communications. Meanwhile, federal agencies such as NSA and CISA are prioritizing the migration to post-quantum cryptography to protect critical infrastructure from emerging quantum cyber threats.

2. Quantum Computing in Geopolitics and Industry

Quantum technology is becoming a critical factor in global geopolitics and industrial competitiveness. Taiwan’s quantum computing initiative faces challenges in balancing domestic investment, national security, and global industry partnerships, raising concerns about long-term sustainability. China’s dominance in material science research and quantum advancements presents a strategic challenge to the U.S., as Beijing aggressively expands its quantum infrastructure and supply chain capabilities. Within the U.S., resilience in the defense industrial base will require greater investment in quantum research, secure supply chains, and workforce development to remain competitive. The rise of global quantum partnerships and emerging defense alliances introduces risks of military disintermediation, potentially shifting power away from traditional defense-industrial players.

3. Interdisciplinary Applications & Broader Tech Ecosystem

The convergence of quantum computing, artificial intelligence (AI), and advanced sciences is driving innovation across multiple sectors:

• Quantum-AI integration has the potential to revolutionize intelligence gathering and operational decision-making, allowing for faster data analysis and predictive modeling in national security and enterprise applications.
• In biotech, quantum technologies will accelerate medical breakthroughs, particularly in genomics, drug discovery, and biological computing applications. See The Tech Trinity: Artificial Intelligence, BioTech, Quantum Tech.
• In climate science, high-performance quantum computing will be leveraged into high-performance computing and visualization and simulation systems, and will be leveraged for extreme weather modeling, improving disaster preparedness and global climate projections.
• Federal R&D strategies are also shifting to prioritize quantum and AI as general purpose technologies (GPT) – recognizing their potential to reshape cybersecurity, economic structures, and national security paradigms through their diffusion across all industry sectors, government functions, and society in general.

4. Cybersecurity and AI Implications

Quantum advancements are reshaping cybersecurity and AI-driven defense strategies, creating both challenges and opportunities. As quantum computing progresses, traditional encryption methods are becoming obsolete, expanding cybersecurity vulnerabilities across financial, defense, and intelligence networks. Defense and intelligence agencies are reassessing the impact of quantum technology on strategic decision-making and cyber warfare, recognizing that quantum-driven disruptions will fundamentally alter global security architectures and risk management frameworks in the coming years. See also: What The National Academies Believe Regarding The Future of Encryption

What Next?

• The U.S. must continue to invest in quantum-safe encryption, strategic industry collaborations, and emerging AI-quantum applications to maintain its technological leadership.
• As geopolitical rivalries intensify and AI-quantum integration accelerates, business leaders, policymakers, and research institutions must prioritize quantum readiness to navigate the challenges and opportunities of the quantum revolution, namely:
  • Post-quantum cryptography standards must continue to be widely implemented across federal agencies.
  • Quantum-powered AI applications have the potential to shift intelligence operations and threat detection.
  • Defense investments in quantum are reshaping cyber, space, and electronic warfare strategies.
  • Geopolitical quantum competition will continue to intensify, requiring stronger global alliances.

Source Citations and Further OODA Loop Resources

• National Quantum Initiative: Key Updates from the FY 2025 Budget Supplement
• The Quantum List: Companies leveraging quantum effects for real world functionality and security
• By Design, The Quantum List Companies are Strategically Structured for Exponential Speed and Scale
• The Quantum List Updated: Companies leveraging Quantum effects for real world functionality and security
• Quantum Computing and Quantum Security Sensemaking
• Executive’s Guide: Navigating the Impact of NIST’s Finalized Post-Quantum Encryption Standards
• The Executive’s Guide To Quantum Computing: What you need to know for your strategy today
• The Tech Trinity: Artificial Intelligence, BioTech, Quantum Tech
• Updated Executive’s Guide To Quantum Safe Security: Steps to make your enterprise quantum proof

Quantum Industrial Base

1. Allied Nations’ Quantum Industrial Base and the Reauthorization of the U.S. National Quantum Initiative – Examining global cooperation in quantum technologies.
2. Growing U.S. Leadership in Quantum Networking – The U.S. position in the development of quantum communication infrastructure.
3. In 2022, the Federal Ecosystem for Accelerating (at Scale) Quantum Computational Power and Quantum Networks Emerged – The U.S. Government’s (USG) strategic alignment on all things quantum security was encouraging throughout 2022, culminating with the passage of the Quantum Cybersecurity Preparedness Act.

Quantum Computing & Cryptography

1. Accelerating Quantum Convergence – A look at the rapid advancements in quantum computing.
2. Quantum Supremacy Is Here: The History-Making Quantum Computing News We Have Been Anticipating Has Now Been Reported – Reporting on a breakthrough in quantum computing.
3. Quantum Key Distribution on Land and in Space – Exploring secure communication via quantum key distribution.
4. The Quantum Cybersecurity Preparedness Act Builds on National Security Memorandum 8 – Legislation and policy updates on quantum security.
5. NSM10: The National Quantum Initiative (NQI) and the NQI Advisory Committee – Strategic direction of U.S. quantum efforts.
6. CISA and Quantum Security Industry Leaders React to Recent NIST Post-Quantum Announcement – Industry response to new encryption standards.
7. NIST Selects 12 Companies for Implementing Quantum Resistant Cryptographic Algorithms – Companies leading quantum-safe encryption solutions.
8. The “So What?” of the NIST Quantum Resistant Cryptographic Algorithms Announcement
9. CISA and Quantum Security Industry Leaders React to Recent NIST Post-Quantum Announcement
10. NIST Selects 12 Companies for Implementing Quantum Resistant Cryptographic Algorithms
11. NSA sets 2035 post-Quantum cryptography deadline; Joint Advisories with CISA and FBI
12. “The Greatest Cryptographic Migration in History”: The Quantum Cybersecurity Preparedness Act to be Signed into Law

Quantum Security and Evolving Threats: OODA Loop Scenarios

• Quantum Day (aka “Q-Day”) is a Gray Rhino Stridently Galloping Straight at Your Organization
• Reorient Your Organization: Scenarios Exploring a Quantum Attack on Critical U.S. Power Grid Infrastructure
• The Convergence of Quantum Computing and Bitcoin: Assessing Security Risks and the Post-Quantum Future
• Blockchain-based Credentials and the Expanded Threat Vector of Quantum Computing

Deep Tech & Innovation

1. OODA and The Future Battlespace: Deep Tech, Cybersecurity and National Security in the 21st Century
2. NYC Deep Tech Week
3. Deep Tech Finder: Mapping Regional Innovation to Solve Global Challenges – A tool to track deep-tech developments.
4. Disruptive Technologies: Insights into the Coming Age of Abundance – Emerging technologies shaping the future.
5. OODAcon 2024: Cross Domain Innovation – Driving Deep Tech Convergence – How innovation in multiple domains accelerates deep tech progress.
6. How Deep Tech Week and a Cadre of Innovators Shaping The Future Ignited My Optimism – Personal reflections from Deep Tech Week.
7. The Tech Trinity: Artificial Intelligence, BioTech, Quantum Tech – How these three fields are converging for exponential change.

The Defense Industrial Base

• The Future of the U.S. Defense Industrial Base: Challenges and Opportunities – Assessing the defense sector’s role in cyber and tech security.
• Will Military Aid Abroad Accelerate the Disintermediation of the U.S. Defense Industrial Base? – Examining the impact of global aid on U.S. defense firms.
• The Disintermediation and/or Self-cannibalization of the Defense Industrial Base: Exponential Organizations’ (ExOs), platforms, ecosystems, and sources of new value creation are based on the disintermediation (innovation that undermines established or incumbent structures) of a market, organization, or industry sector.

Talent Strategy

• Does the U.S. Have a “Talent Superpower Strategy”? – Evaluating America’s approach to attracting top tech talent.
• Emerging Tech Talent, Human Targeting, Cyber Workforce Development, STEM Stay Rates and National Security – Challenges in tech workforce retention.

Additional Resources

• Using AI Tools To Comprehend Complex Science: An Examination of Microsoft Quantum Breakthrough Paper
• Accelerating Quantum Convergence
• Strategy for Migrating to Automated Post-Quantum Cryptography Discovery and Inventory Tools
• Quantum-Safe Encryption: A Critical Frontier for U.S. National Security 
• Quantum Reorientation: NIST Announces Three Finalized Post-Quantum Encryption Standards
• From Quantum Foundations to Universal Insights: Embracing First Principles Thinking for Better Understanding Of How Things Work
• What To Do About Quantum Uncertainty
• NIST on a CHIP – Driving A Revolution In Measurement Science With Quantum Solutions
• Quantum Computing Use Cases and Post-Quantum Cryptography
• Supply Chain Resiliency Critical to Exponential Quantum Computing Innovation and Climate Change Response
• Is Taiwan’s Five-year Quantum Computing and Talent Initiative the Wrong Strategy for the Island Nation?
• The 3rd Annual Report of The National Quantum Initiative
• The First FDA Approved CRISPR-based Medicine and the First Programmable, Logical Quantum Processor
• DEFCON31 Quantum Village: The Quantum Debates (Onsite, Friday)