This OODAcon 2024 panel, moderated by Bob Gourley, explored the theme of “Convergence” across various disciplines, including AI, biotechnology, aerospace, energy, and defense. The discussion emphasized how interdisciplinary collaboration can drive innovation, address emerging global challenges, and accelerate technological advancements. Experts Andrew Cote, William “Mac” McHenry, and Katrina McFarland shared insights from their diverse professional experiences, highlighting opportunities and barriers in achieving convergence.

OODAcon 2024 attendees gained actionable insights into how these technologies can be harnessed to drive innovation to meet the goals of OODAcon:  empowering decision-makers to anticipate, adapt, and thrive in the rapidly evolving tech landscape.

Key Points

• Convergence and Innovation: Technological progress is shifting from software to “deep tech” domains like aerospace and biotech, requiring new approaches and market creation.
• Geopolitical Context: Challenges such as economic warfare, rare earth competition, and asymmetrical warfare (e.g., drones vs. missiles) necessitate agile responses and restructured regulatory frameworks.
• Interdisciplinary Collaboration: Building trust across fields and reducing bureaucratic barriers are essential to leveraging the full potential of converging technologies.
• Adversarial Dynamics: China’s rapid technological deployment underscores the need for responsive strategies while leveraging Western strengths like diversity and partnerships.
• Dual-Use Technologies: Innovations serving both military and civilian applications, such as facial recognition, exemplify how shared value accelerates progress.

What’s Next?

1. Fostering Collaboration: Pilot programs and tools for cross-disciplinary integration should be prioritized to build trust and demonstrate value.
2. Regulatory Reforms: Streamlining processes and adopting risk-tolerant frameworks are necessary to keep pace with technological evolution.
3. Countering Adversarial Threats: The U.S. must balance innovation with robust measures to mitigate risks from adversaries like China.
4. Scaling Dual-Use Applications: Promote technologies that simultaneously advance military capabilities and commercial innovation.

Recommendations

• Build Trust through Pilots: Implement real-world applications of converging tools to incrementally foster trust across disciplines.
• Adopt Agile Frameworks: Reform outdated regulatory systems to accelerate innovation while maintaining safety and ethics.
• Leverage Global Sentiment: Highlight risks posed by adversaries to galvanize international cooperation and slow adversarial progress.
• Encourage Dual-Use Development: Incentivize technologies that deliver shared military and commercial benefits to maximize impact.

The following is an expanded summary of the OODAcon 2024 panel Cross Domain Innovation – Driving Deep Tech Convergence:

Introductory Statements

…building trust in government and societal systems to enable innovation.

Bob’s introduction set the stage for the panel discussion on the theme of “Convergence,” emphasizing the diverse expertise of the three panelists:

• Andrew: Founder of Hyperstition and organizer of San Francisco Deep Tech Week, with a background in engineering physics and insights spanning biotech, nuclear energy, and defense tech. Bob shared a recap of his attendance at San Francisco Deep Tech Week earlier this year. See “How Deep Tech Week and a Cadre of Innovators Shaping The Future Ignited My Optimism”
• Mac: Former Marine Corps officer and a founder of the Defense Innovation Unit (DIU), bridging innovation and defense needs.
• Katrina: Senior engineer with expertise in government technology, history, and societal impacts.
• Andrew shared his perspective on convergence, as a shift from software-dominated innovation to a renewed focus on physical domains like biotech, aerospace, energy, and defense.
  • Software’s high return on investment stemmed from minimal regulation and a winner-takes-all dynamic, but these opportunities have peaked.
  • Future innovation lies in “deep tech,” where outdated regulatory frameworks pose challenges. He emphasized the need to create new markets, citing SpaceX as an example of overcoming such barriers to advance innovation.
• Mac emphasized the necessity of convergence to respond to global realignments, such as geopolitical tensions, economic warfare, and rapid technological advancements.
  • He highlighted the asymmetry in modern warfare, exemplified by low-cost drones countering expensive missiles, and the dominance of technologies like drones, cyber capabilities, and AI on the battlefield.
  • Mac stressed that outdated government acquisition and regulatory systems must be reimagined to keep pace with this accelerated landscape, advocating for more agile and responsive structures, as demonstrated in his work with the Defense Innovation Unit (DIU).
• Katrina highlighted the rapid pace of technological advancement, noting how expanded computational power enables the convergence of biology, chemistry, and materials science.
  • She emphasized the integration of biology into computing as a key breakthrough, though ethical standards and bureaucratic hurdles present challenges.
  • Drawing from her experience in the Marine Corps and government, she observed how excessive regulations can hinder progress.
  • Despite these obstacles, she expressed optimism about the future, advocating for building trust in government and societal systems to enable innovation.

Convergence, Deep Tech, and the Future of Trust

Removing power structures fosters speed and empowers trust in decision-making, which is needed across the government.

• The discussion emphasized the importance of building trust across disciplines like AI, biotech, materials science, and space sciences to accelerate mission success.
• The challenge ahead is overcoming siloed expertise and deep loyalty to individual fields, calling for strategies to foster collaboration and mutual understanding among professionals from diverse domains.
• The limitations of intelligence and communication bandwidth in fostering interdisciplinary collaboration were discussed, emphasizing that bureaucracy often arises from the need for information management.
• Large language models (LLMs) can reduce bureaucratic inefficiencies by summarizing and facilitating cross-disciplinary communication.
• These models act as “turbo-generalists,” bridging specialties and enabling insights without advancing science directly.
• “Trust must be earned, so we should pilot these cross-disciplinary tools in real-world applications.”
• The key challenge lies in building trust to adopt and integrate these technologies into everyday practices effectively.
• Trust is built gradually through real-world application and piloting of cross-disciplinary tools.
• Specifically, this process was compared to the impact of the electron microscope in material science, which established confidence by providing molecular-level precision.
• Similarly, implementing and refining emerging tools in practice can foster trust in data, methods, and outcomes, enabling incremental progress.
• There is value in incentive structures.
  • To build trust, we need a unified understanding of the mission and incentives that encourage adoption.
  • There is a battlefield incentive to act now, but government processes lack that alignment.
  • In organizations like DIU, the hierarchy has been flattened to empower everyone.
  • Removing power structures fosters speed and empowers trust in decision-making, which is needed across the government.
  • Mission alignment is crucial, but regulatory structures can obstruct such efforts.

Adversarial Convergence: China

The U.S. needs to balance control with the speed of tech in order to maintain an edge and strategic competitive advantage.

• China rapidly deploys technology, often using stolen IP to accelerate.
  • Should we slow their convergence down? i.e. – by imposing new compliance frameworks?
  • Global sentiment could be used to highlight risks and potentially slow China’s technological progress.
  • China’s rapid pace is driven by openly observing concerns from others.
  • While China leads in some areas, its lack of open thought and diversity in innovation is a limiting factor.
  • China has the ability to out-execute the U.S. due to its centralized, top-down structure, which streamlines civil projects like nuclear plants.
  • In contrast, there is a fundamental inefficiency in U.S. infrastructure development, i.e inflated regulatory costs without corresponding improvements in efficiency, such as the high cost of retrofitting the Golden Gate Bridge.
  • The U.S. could benefit from adopting more streamlined approaches.
• Conversely, Western democracy is at a unique advantage: our partnerships are unmatched.
  • There may be regulatory slowdowns, but Western alliances allow greater innovation.
  • The U.S. needs to balance control with the speed of tech to maintain an edge and strategic competitive advantage.

Interdisciplinary Convergence

Joint combat requires precise timing and coordination: can we apply similar lessons to interdisciplinary convergence?

• Like military operations, addressing challenges through convergence requires:
  • Prioritizing the mission;
  • Accepting risks; and
  • Embracing diverse perspectives.
• We must empower all levels to act on the mission.
  • Flattening hierarchies = no one is waiting for approval. In government, this is often lost.
  • If everyone’s role directly supports a mission, the whole team moves in sync.
  • Delegating decision-making to the front lines is vital.
  • Startups offer a framework, where everyone knows their role, mission, and authority to act.
  • Trust the people closest to the issue to make decisions: this approach accelerates response times and encourages innovation.
• Dual-use technologies (such as facial recognition) have both commercial and defense applications. This shared value accelerates innovation and progress.

Decontrol?

Should we consider “decontrol”—relaxing some regulations to let people make judgment calls?

• Information Technology (IT) follows set protocols: networking, data encryption, etc. AI, though, faces layers of regulation, which might inhibit progress.
• Case study: during a pilot, allowing teams to “tailor” requirements, justifying only essential approvals.
• The idea of zero tolerance for failure has paralyzed innovation.
• As a community, we need to relearn risk tolerance, allowing for calculated risk.
• Decontrol aligns with trust and purpose. If someone’s directly contributing to the mission, reduce bureaucracy. Regulations designed for the slow post-WWII era do not fit today’s landscape.
• In terms of incentives and risk profiles, for the venture capital community, this overly centralized “control culture” feels foreign.
  • Fear narratives around AI can stifle innovation.
  • Unknowns can be met with either fear or curiosity.
  • Innovation requires curiosity and, occasionally, letting go of control.
  • Allow for “safe failure spaces”.

Deep Tech and Enterprise Business Development

How should Enterprise scope requirements for convergence? To start: flexibility invites fresh ideas.

• Itemize desired outcomes, not detailed specifications.
• Structure incentives, business models, and value propositions are these outcomes.
• Allow companies to propose innovative solutions rather than “over-specification.”
• Avoid requirements, framing challenges instead.
• Leverage innovation by asking companies for solutions, not dictating specs. This approach can be scaled for universality and cross-sector standardization.

Q-Day: Public/Private Coordination, Collaboration and Partnerships?

Regarding quantum threats—data encrypted now may be compromised later if decrypted by future quantum tech. Should industry match government speed in adopting quantum-safe practices?

• It is an economic imperative: Without a secure economy, we can’t sustain national security.
• Protecting proprietary information preserves competitive advantage.
• VCs are more interested in Quantum Sensing and Quantum Communication than computing, which has hit roadblocks.
• One panel member noted that “I remain skeptical about quantum’s immediate impact, though preparing for data security remains prudent.”
  • Preparation is essential, given the high stakes. If quantum decryption emerges within a few years, readiness will pay off.

The Future of Artificial General Intelligence

How imminent is AGI?

• The intelligence of AI is bound by its training environment. Current AI learns from vast amounts of data but lacks sensory grounding.
• A true AGI would need to experience the world, forming beliefs from sensory input, which today’s models lack.
• Form factors and practical applications are critical: Without concrete use cases, AGI discussions remain abstract. AI for specific tasks will likely come first.
• It took evolution billions of years to produce human intelligence. We’re on a long journey. AGI may yield useful tools, but it won’t resemble human cognition anytime soon.

For the program notes for this session at OODAcon 2024, see Cross Domain Innovation – Driving Deep Tech Convergence.

Summaries of every OODAcon session will be posted throughout the remainder of 2024. Find them all in the OODA Community section of the site.

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The full agenda for OODacon 2024 can be found here: Welcome to OODAcon 2024: Final Agenda and Event Details. It includes a full description of each session, expanded speaker bios (with links to current projects and articles about the speakers), and additional OODA Loop resources on the theme of each panel.