The world is a more dangerous, chaotic and complicated place than it has ever been. Your corporate strategy and defensive posture needs to reflect that.

I’ve professionally tracked geopolitical events for my entire adult life, starting as a Navy Intelligence Officer in 1982. Now at OODA I continue this professional watching of geopolitical events (most of which you see reflected in our reporting). Four decades of experience of operational intelligence analysis leads me to the same conclusion most any watcher of international events would have. Although the world has always been a dangerous place, especially for democratic nations, we are entering a period of increasing peril and extreme volatility.

What caused the change? There are many factors, including technological ones. But perhaps the biggest driver is the desire by nations like China, Russia, Iran and DPRK to opposed the federations and alliances of free nations which the US is clearly at the center of. We are in a more dangerous world because of the rise of powerful adversaries.

The changes are so significant, OODA recommends all business leaders take stock of the geopolitical situation and assess how the nature of these changes should impact your business strategy. And all in open societies need to realize that authoritarians view us as their enemies.

The Geopolitical Landscape

The geopolitical risks confronting the world today are multifaceted and complex (for a very high level overview see: What Executives Need To Know About The 2024 Annual Threat Assessment From The U.S. Intelligence Community).

A snapshot of topics directly from OODA news summaries includes:

• Over the last few weeks we have been reporting on China’s moves around Taiwan. China launched drills that are totally surrounding Taiwan calling them “strong punishment.” This was totally consistent with the assessments made by OODA network members (especially Junaid Islam) regarding likely courses of action by China in the region. The PRC has now demonstrated that they can blockade Taiwan at the time of their choosing.
• Our reporting has shown how Israel is in many ways losing the information war, which during our 2023 OODAcon (just two weeks after the horrible 7 Oct attacks) was called out as a grave threat. 
• The death of Iran’s President Raisi is still echoing in Iranian propaganda and is causing many to question why institutions including the US State Department, the UN and NATO have issued condolences as if he was an icon of the global community. 
• Russia continues to launch Space weapons, and China has demonstrated satellite weapon maneuverability, again. 
• Sabotage across Europe and potentially in the US is raising fears of Russian ordered operations. In many ways, Russia’s attacks against Ukraine has spread already.
• DPRK has been coordinating more with China and Russia and has been suplying Russia with weapons. DPRK has also been launching more missiles and even spy satellites.
• Political instability in Latin America is increasing, resulting in worsening outlooks for the economy of several countries including Bolivia, Ecuador, Panama, Peru, Chile and Columbian. Democratic backsliding is occurring as well, as is criminal violence and drug trafficking. All of this makes the region more tense and potentially exploitable by other adversaries.

Business Leaders and Geopolitical Realities

Companies are increasingly exposed to geopolitical shocks that can disrupt operations, supply chains, and financial stability. To navigate these challenges, businesses need to integrate geopolitical risk management into their strategic planning. This involves:

1. Risk Assessment and Scenario Planning: Businesses should conduct comprehensive risk assessments and develop scenario plans to anticipate and respond to geopolitical events. This includes understanding the potential impacts of conflicts, sanctions, and regulatory changes on their operations.
2. Building Resilience: Companies must enhance their resilience by diversifying supply chains, securing critical assets, and investing in cybersecurity measures. This will help mitigate the risks associated with geopolitical instability and ensure continuity of operations.
3. Engaging with Stakeholders: Business leaders should engage with government agencies, industry groups, and international organizations to stay informed about geopolitical developments and collaborate on risk mitigation strategies. This includes participating in forums and initiatives that promote global stability and security.

Supporting National Security

Business leaders have a unique role to play in supporting national security. By adopting best practices in risk management and resilience-building, companies can contribute to the broader goal of national security. This includes:

1. Protecting Critical Infrastructure: Businesses, especially those in critical sectors such as energy, technology, and finance, must prioritize the protection of their infrastructure from cyberattacks and other threats. This is essential for maintaining national security and economic stability.
2. Promoting Democratic Values: Companies can support global democracies by advocating for policies that promote transparency, accountability, and the rule of law. This helps create a stable and predictable business environment, which is beneficial for both economic growth and national security.
3. Collaborating with Government: Businesses should work closely with government agencies to share information and resources that can help detect and deter threats. This includes participating in public-private partnerships and supporting initiatives that enhance national security.

More on What the C-Suite Can and Should Do

• Since we are in a period of fast action and dynamically shifting situations, look at ways to optimize your own decision-making, with an eye towards speeding up your processes (think of your own OODA Loop). Accelerate your review of internal corporate decision-making by reviewing our special series on the Intelligent Enterprise, which provides advice and recommendations relevant to businesses of all sizes on topics like intelligence support to operational decision-making. This is also a good time to review corporate approaches to training staff and executives on critical thinking, training on how to counter misinformation and disinformation.
• Larger companies should hire or appoint a senior liaison for working with the US Department of State, Department of Commerce and Department of Homeland Security to ensure your company is as informed as possible on government actions and intentions in regards to the threat, and to ensure your corporate interests are known by government.
• Besides this appointing of a senior liaison, firms of all sizes should ensure they are connected to the right entities for sharing information on cyber conflict. For most this means joining an appropriate information sharing and analysis center or organization (ISAC or ISAO). C-Suite leaders should track this closely and put themselves in a position to ensure information received from these sharing organizations is as actionable as possible. And remember, sharing is a two-way street. Sharing back information to these organizations can help in trust building and improve collective defense.
• Strategically assess your entire supply chain. In today’s interconnected world this can be easier said than done, but it is important to know not only where your facilities are, but, depending on your industry, where your supplier facilities are, where manufacturing is done, and where raw materials are sourced from. After an initial mapping of your supply chain assess critical paths and critical components, and use scenario based planning to and determine if alternate supply sources need to be established.
• Re-assess your markets to know which markets can be influenced by China or Russia and determine how important these markets are to your organization.
• Understand that no IT system can be totally secured, but all IT can be hardened. Take steps to move your organization to a more resilient architecture that can make it harder on nation states to gain unauthorized access to your systems and detect them if they do (our favored approach, a Zero-Trust Architecture).
• Know your communications dependencies, including long haul communications and also space based communications. Understand your backup plans should the need arise.
• Also on the subject of communications, ensure your entire C-Suite has an out of band, secure way to coordinate together.
• C-Suite leaders should work to improve their ability to deal with further disintegration in internal discord in the US and other open societies and how that can impact business models and also Human Resources strategies. Firms should consider ways to mitigate the threat of internal extremists and even workplace violence.
• Ensure your entire leadership team is staying aware of global threats. One way to do that is to subscribe to our OODA Daily Pulse. This foundational level of intelligence can help keep the entire team aware of key events and threats. Others on your team may be in need of more focused cyber threat intelligence or human intelligence or other dedicated sources. Contact us if you need insights into the best way to do this.

Conclusion

As we enter a period of heightened geopolitical risk, the importance of global democracies and open societies cannot be overstated. Business leaders must understand the geopolitical realities and take proactive measures to protect their enterprises and support national security. By doing so, they can help navigate the volatile geopolitical landscape and contribute to a more stable and secure world.