In 2017, NATO released a seminal report that concluded that climate change is the ultimate “threat multiplier,” exacerbating political instability in the world’s most unstable regions, with intensifying extreme weather events like droughts stressing the global food and water supply – leading to an increase in the number of regional and global disputes and violent conflicts caused by climate change-induced global scarcity.  The Department of Defense (DoD) has also recognized that climate change will exacerbate existing security challenges and create new ones. No pun intended, but it is the perfect storm for a dystopian geopolitical future scenario. Explore this post for a window into the DoD and NATO’s strategic pivot to take on the climate crisis crucial to a more positive outcome.

NATO joins the Pentagon in deeming climate change a threat multiplier

A [NATO special report released in 2017 concluded] that climate change is the ultimate “threat multiplier”—meaning that it can exacerbate political instability in the world’s most unstable regions—because by intensifying extreme weather events like droughts, climate change stresses food and water supplies. In poor, arid countries already facing shortages, this increased stress can lead to disputes and violent conflicts over scarce resources. As the report concludes:

“… food, water and climate are intimately connected with the sectors of economic development, demography, energy, ecosystems and urban planning—to name but a few interrelated sectors. The international community must improve the international food market to increase stability of prices and availability. Last but not least, the Parties who have ratified the 2015 Paris climate agreement must live up to their pledges, including on climate financing for developing countries.”

While the NATO report’s main focus is on exploring the specifics of food and water scarcity in the Middle East and North Africa, it also effectively documents the overall role that climate change plays in exacerbating the problem. One study just published in Environmental Research Letters examines how scientists can better characterize and inform risk management actions, for example by identifying the values that are at risk and by framing key information in a way that clearly communicates why decisions matter. As study co-author Peter Gleick explains:

“The new NATO study highlights the growing risks of violence in the Middle East linked to food and water problems worsened by accelerating climate change. These are worries also identified by US intelligence and military experts and will have to be factored into any assessments of national security priorities and actions for the future.”

And it’s not just NATO; the Defense Department considers climate change a threat multiplier as well. In fact, Gleick published an article in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists about the connections between environment and security over 25 years ago. In that piece, Gleick noted that “migrating populations in search of more benevolent environmental and social conditions may undermine regional peace and security … the era of the Cold War may soon be replaced by the era of environmental conflict.”

A quarter century later, we’re still grappling with the interconnections between environment and security, which are becoming increasingly evident. For example, another of Gleick’s papers found that the global warming-amplified drought in Syria contributed to that region’s civil unrest.

Here are the key points from their assessments:

1. Operational Challenges:
   • Climate change affects military operations by creating more extreme weather conditions, which can degrade equipment, impact the health of personnel, and complicate mission planning. For instance, higher temperatures can impair the functionality of military equipment and increase the risk of heat-related illnesses among troops​ (Chatham House)​​ (Defense.gov)​.
2. Infrastructure Vulnerability:
   • Military installations are increasingly vulnerable to climate impacts such as sea-level rise, extreme weather events, and thawing permafrost. These changes can damage infrastructure, reduce operational readiness, and increase maintenance costs. For example, two-thirds of U.S. military bases are susceptible to these climate risks​ (NATO)​​ (Defense.gov)​.
3. Resource Competition and Instability:
   • Climate change can lead to resource scarcity (like water and food), which in turn can fuel conflicts and migration. This exacerbates instability in regions that are already vulnerable, potentially increasing the demand for military intervention and humanitarian assistance​ (NATO)​.
4. Strategic and Geopolitical Implications:
   • Changes in the Arctic, such as melting ice, are opening new shipping lanes and creating new areas for geopolitical competition. This requires NATO to adapt its strategic planning to address these emerging threats​ (Chatham House)​.
5. Adaptation and Mitigation Efforts:
   • Both NATO and the DoD are incorporating climate considerations into their defense planning and operations. This includes enhancing resilience to climate impacts, reducing greenhouse gas emissions from military activities, and developing sustainable technologies​ (NATO)​​ (Defense.gov)​.

By addressing these factors, NATO and the DoD aim to maintain operational effectiveness and ensure that their forces are prepared to respond to the multifaceted challenges posed by climate change.

What Next?

NATO releases 2024 Climate Change and Security Impact Assessment Report

NATO released the Secretary General’s annual Climate Change and Security Impact Assessment on Tuesday (9 July 2024). It notes that accelerating climate change has “a profound impact on Allied security,” and stresses the need for NATO to remain fit for purpose in a rapidly changing environment.

The earth’s rapidly changing climate and an increase in weather extremes have led NATO to accelerate its efforts in environmental security and environmental protection. For decades, NATO has been dealing with environmental security issues that can lead to humanitarian disasters, regional tensions and violence. NATO provides disaster relief support; focuses on environmental risks to military activities and security in general, including environmental factors that affect energy supplies; and is looking for ways to improve energy efficiency in the military through innovative technologies.

• NATO recognises that it faces many environmental challenges, particularly due to the risks posed by climate change, and has been acting on these challenges for many years.
• NATO engages in civil preparedness and emergency response to environmental disasters such as floods, forest fires and earthquakes.
• The Alliance also focuses on enhancing energy efficiency and reducing the environmental footprint of armed forces.
• In 1969, NATO first recognised environmental challenges by establishing the Committee on the Challenges of Modern Society (CCMS), which managed studies and fellowships that focused on issues like air and noise pollution, advanced health care and the disposal of hazardous wastes.
• In 2006, NATO’s Science Committee merged with the CCMS to form the Science for Peace and Security (SPS) Programme to develop initiatives on security challenges, including environmental security issues like water management and the prevention of natural catastrophes, and energy security.
• NATO’s Science and Technology Organization (STO) also promotes and conducts scientific research related to environmental issues.
• In 2021, NATO adopted an ambitious Climate Change and Security Action Plan to mainstream climate change considerations into NATO’s political and military agenda.
• NATO’s 2022 Strategic Concept – the Alliance’s core policy document, which guides NATO’s strategy over the coming years – highlights climate change as a defining challenge of our time, with a profound impact on Allied security. It states that NATO should become the leading international organisation when it comes to understanding and adapting to the impact of climate change on security.
• At the 2023 NATO Summit in Vilnius, Allies welcomed the establishment of a NATO Centre of Excellence for Climate Change and Security in Montreal, Canada.

In an Era of Climate Uncertainty, NATO Must Adapt

“Pressing threats can sideline equally vital longer-term challenges such as climate change, leaving them in the shadows of immediate policy priorities.”

Following is an excerpt from a RAND commentary, part of a  series on the 2024 NATO summit in Washington in which RAND researchers explore important strategic questions for the alliance as NATO confronts a historic moment, navigating both promise and peril.  The entire piece is worth a read:

As NATO celebrates its 75th anniversary, recent emphasis on enlargement and bolstering of defence capabilities risks overshadowing its other activities. Two years ago, the alliance announced its determination to set the “gold standard” for addressing the implications of climate change for international security. Though worthy, this may be difficult to achieve in today’s world.

The war in Ukraine, with its profound geopolitical stakes—reshaping European borders and reigniting state-on-state conflict in Europe—has demanded focus and resources from NATO members. Not only has Russia’s invasion threatened NATO’s ability to maintain peace in Europe, but it has also resulted in Finland and Sweden joining the alliance and national defence budgets rising.

In the past year, NATO defence spending by European members and Canada increased by 11 percent. The required capabilities have also shifted—before the invasion, some NATO members focused their procurement on counterinsurgency against non-state threats, but this has pivoted towards capabilities for conventional and territorial warfighting. Finite resources and capacity to tackle challenges means that urgent crises often consume NATO’s attention. Pressing threats can sideline equally vital longer-term challenges such as climate change, leaving them in the shadows of immediate policy priorities.

NATO…offers a rare mechanism for countries to collaborate against shared pressures in ways that make the whole greater than the sum of its parts.

Funding is available to accelerate research on defence technologies in a changing climate, through the Defence Innovation Accelerator for the North Atlantic, the Science and Technology Organization and the NATO Investment Fund. The newly formed Climate Change and Security Centre of Excellence in Canada also acts as a crucial hub for NATO, facilitating knowledge-sharing and bolstering responses (PDF) to climate-related risks. A future step might be promoting cooperation models. They could help NATO members to not only counter conventional threats, but also tackle emerging issues like mass migration, geopolitical tensions in the Arctic, and other climate-induced security challenges.

Finally, as RAND research shows, NATO could weave more extreme operating conditions and increased concurrency pressures into its future force planning, capability design, and technology development. Equipment to help soldiers operate in hotter and more humid conditions could be an advantage, as would adapting military doctrine, training, and exercises. Looking for opportunities in technology development or force design for platforms to be regenerated more quickly could help alleviate pressures on forces to respond to domestic crises alongside military matters.

A NATO that more deliberately incorporates climate change into its as-usual planning would stand a good chance of maintaining its capability edge in the future world. Such strategic foresight is crucial to ensuring military effectiveness in harsh environments and maintaining the collective defence at the core of the alliance. In this era of unprecedented environmental and geopolitical change, that is not just preferable—it is indispensable.

Further OODA Loop Resources

The Future of the Climate Crisis – Recent Impacts and Promising Innovation Strategies: While cyberwars may continue to take center stage in the global polycrisis, the climate crisis holds a pole position, arguably only threatened in its existential threat dominance by negative prognostications of the future impact of artificial intelligence. For now, the climate crisis continues to manifest in a very future, real-world manner  – with recent quantifiable impacts of record and promising innovation strategies, some technological.  Details here.

“The Worst-Case Scenario is the Least Probable” and Other Cognitive Biases: Global Drought, Catastrophic Monsoons and Floods and “Zombie Ice”:  Our editorial approach here at OODA Loop is an optimistic approach, based on the influence of ‘solutions-based’ journalism and a belief in the American “mission” writ large, including years of experience with deeply humble, remarkably talented people that make up American agencies, departments, and institutions.  We try not to be blindly optimistic, however, and steer away from the Silicon Valley-fueled “techno-utopianism” that has us in trouble with some of the unintended consequences of the internet.  OODA Network Member Dr. Lisa Porter describes” a risk-based approach that recognizes I am always making a tradeoff.  And to do it with my eyes open.”  We think that captures what we are trying to provide here daily.  We also use scenario planning to tell the story of the future as we see it – to influence risk strategies and decision-making processes for our network members and their  organizations.  So, with that:  Are you sitting down?  Because I have some bad news, along with a mental model through which to analyze its implications.

Embracing Corporate Intelligence and Scenario Planning in an Uncertain Age: Apart from traditional competitive challenges, businesses also confront external threats, many of which are unpredictable. This environment amplifies the significance of Scenario Planning. It enables leaders to envision varied futures, thereby identifying potential risks and opportunities. All organizations, regardless of their size, should allocate time to refine their understanding of the current risk landscape and adapt their strategies. See: Scenario Planning

Networked Extremism: The digital era enables extremists worldwide to collaborate, share strategies, and self-radicalize. Meanwhile, advanced technologies empower criminals, making corruption and crime interwoven challenges for global societies. See: Converging Insurgency, Crime and Corruption

Food Security and Inflation: Food security is emerging as a major geopolitical concern, with droughts and geopolitical tensions exacerbating the issue. Inflation, directly linked to food security, is spurring political unrest in several countries. See: Food Security

Demographic Time Bomb: Industrialized nations face demographic challenges, with a growing elderly population outnumbering the working-age demographic. Countries like Japan and China are at the forefront, feeling the economic and social ramifications of an aging society. See: Global Risks and Geopolitical Sensemaking

Bitcoin’s Momentum: Bitcoin seems unstoppable due to solid mathematical foundations and widespread societal acceptance. Other cryptocurrencies like Ethereum also gain prominence. The Metaverse’s rise is closely tied to Ethereum’s universal trust layer. See: Guide to Crypto Revolution

Track Technology-Driven Disruption: Businesses should examine technological drivers and future customer demands. A multi-disciplinary knowledge of tech domains is essential for effective foresight. See: Disruptive and Exponential Technologies.

Planning for a Continuous Pandemic Landscape: COVID-19’s geopolitical repercussions are evident, with recent assessments pointing to China’s role in its spread. Regardless of the exact origins, the same conditions that allowed COVID-19 to become a pandemic persist today. Therefore, businesses must be prepared for consistent health disruptions, implying that a substantial portion of the workforce might always operate remotely, even though face-to-face interactions remain vital for critical decisions. See: COVID Sensemaking

The Inevitable Acceleration of Reshoring and its Challenges: The momentum towards reshoring, nearshoring, and friendshoring signals a global shift towards regional self-reliance. Each region will emphasize local manufacturing, food production, energy generation, defense, and automation. Reshoring is a complex process, with numerous examples of failures stemming from underestimating intricacies. Comprehensive analyses encompassing various facets, from engineering to finance, are essential for successful reshoring endeavors. See: Opportunities for Advantage