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“Q-Day” is a scenario where “no more secrets” becomes a reality, as previously secure communications and data could be vulnerable to decryption by entities wielding quantum computational power (also known as “Quantum Supremacy”). Find a breakdown, analysis, and future scenarios here.
Michele Wucker used “Gray Rhino” to describe a highly probable, high-impact, neglected threat. The highly probable, high-impact, and neglected threat of quantum computers breaking current asymmetric encryption meets this definition of a Gray Rhino. There is awareness of this threat in computer science circles, government R&D centers, and the pockets of the technology world. But for the most part, big enterprises ignore this threat. This is due in part to the many competing priorities for security spending. We do not see Q-Day happening in 2024 or even 2025. Still, we are seeing indications of “Harvest Now Decrypt Later” (HNDL) attacks where adversaries are stealing information today that will be broken later. This threat vector should be an impetus for organizations to move quicker to make today’s technologies quantum-safe from this Gray Rhino reaching charging speed.
While quantum computing promises to revolutionize fields such as material science, pharmaceuticals, and optimization problems by providing computational power far beyond what is achievable with classical computers, it also poses significant threats to the security of current cryptographic systems, potentially rendering many of our existing encryption methods obsolete. Quantum Day, or Q-Day, is a conceptual milestone in quantum computing, representing a future point at which quantum computers achieve a level of capability that fundamentally alters the landscape of cybersecurity, cryptography, and computational problem-solving. It’s a term that encapsulates both the promise and the peril of quantum computing technology.
On “Q-Day,” quantum computers, with their ability to process information in fundamentally new ways using qubits, are expected to break the public-key cryptography algorithms that underpin much of our digital security infrastructure. This capability could lead to a scenario where “no more secrets” becomes a reality, as previously secure communications and data could be vulnerable to decryption by entities wielding quantum computational power. However, this is not an inevitability. The field of quantum-resistant cryptography is advancing to develop new cryptographic systems that can withstand the power of quantum computing.
The anticipation of Q-Day has spurred significant investment and research into quantum computing and cryptography. Major corporations and governments are deeply invested in the race to quantum supremacy, recognizing the strategic advantage that quantum technologies could confer. The United States, for example, is actively preparing for the quantum future, with initiatives to migrate to post-quantum cryptography and to understand the implications of quantum computing on national security.
In essence, Q-Day represents a pivotal moment in the evolution of technology and security. It is a call to action for leaders in every sector to understand the implications of quantum computing and prepare for a future where the computational rules of the game have fundamentally changed. Whether we will face a world of “no more secrets” or one of “no more old secrets” depends on our readiness to adapt to and harness the power of quantum computing while safeguarding against its potential threats. The Q-Day scenario is not merely academic but a clarion call for strategic foresight and preparedness.
Quantum Information Science (QIS) represents a profound confluence of physics, computer science, and information theory, heralding a paradigm shift in our understanding and manipulation of information at the quantum level. At its core, QIS is predicated on the principles of quantum mechanics, a branch of physics that describes the behavior of energy and matter at the smallest scales. Unlike classical information theory, which relies on binary bits (0s and 1s) as the fundamental units of information, QIS leverages quantum bits, or qubits, which can exist in multiple states simultaneously due to the principle of superposition.
This superposition, along with entanglement—a phenomenon where qubits become interconnected so that the state of one (no matter the distance from the other) can instantaneously affect the state of another—provides the foundation for quantum computing. Quantum computing, a subset of QIS, promises to tackle computational problems currently intractable for classical computers, such as complex optimization problems and simulations of quantum physical processes. QIS encompasses quantum cryptography, which seeks to harness quantum mechanical properties to secure communication in ways that are fundamentally beyond the capabilities of classical cryptography. For instance, quantum key distribution (QKD) exploits the principle of quantum uncertainty to ensure that any attempt at eavesdropping on a quantum communication channel can be detected, offering a new paradigm for secure communication. The implications of QIS extend far beyond computing and cryptography, touching upon various domains, including materials science, metrology, and even fundamental questions in physics. Its interdisciplinary nature demands a robust collaboration across fields and a deep understanding of both theoretical and applied aspects of quantum mechanics.
Given QIS’s transformative potential, individuals and organizations must consider how this emerging science might influence their work or future projects. Whether it’s enhancing computational capabilities, securing communications against future threats, or pioneering new scientific discoveries, the applications of QIS are as vast as they are profound.
A strategic approach employed by cyber adversaries, Harvest Now Decrypt Later (HNDL) involves collecting encrypted data to decrypt it at a future point when technological advancements or breakthroughs in cryptographic techniques make decryption feasible and economically viable. This strategy is predicated on the assumption that what cannot be decrypted today may well be an open book tomorrow, thanks to the relentless pace of technological progress. Consider the implications of quantum computing on current encryption standards. While still in its nascent stages, quantum computing promises to render many of today’s encryption algorithms obsolete, turning what was once considered secure data into a treasure trove for those with the foresight to harvest it. This scenario underscores the importance of forward-thinking in cybersecurity strategies, emphasizing not just the protection of data in its current state but also considering the longevity of that protection.
The HNDL approach also highlights a critical vulnerability in our digital ecosystem—the temporal aspect of data security. Data that is encrypted and considered secure today is essentially being stored under a ticking time bomb of technological advancement. This raises significant concerns for data privacy and security, especially for sensitive information that retains its value over time, such as state secrets, intellectual property, and personal data. To mitigate the risks associated with HNDL, adopting a dynamic and adaptive approach to data encryption and security is imperative. This includes staying abreast of advancements in cryptography, such as post-quantum cryptography, which is being developed to secure data against the future threat quantum computing poses. Additionally, organizations must implement robust data lifecycle management practices, ensuring that data is securely deleted when no longer needed and continuously reassessing the security of data that must be retained over long periods.
The concept of HNDL serves as a stark reminder of the evolving landscape of cybersecurity and the need for vigilance and innovation in protecting digital assets. It’s a chess game where anticipating your opponent’s moves years, if not decades, in advance can mean the difference between safeguarding your most valuable assets or exposing them to future exploitation.
A sophisticated and forward-looking cyber strategy that adversaries employ with an eye toward the future, Harvest Now Decrypt Later (HNDL) Cyberattacks involve the collection of encrypted data to decrypt it at a later date when advancements in quantum computing make decryption feasible and cost-effective. This approach is underpinned by strategic patience and a bet on future technological evolution that will enable access to today’s encrypted secrets. Quantum computing promises to break many of the current cryptographic algorithms, turning what was once considered impenetrable into an open book for those with the foresight to harvest encrypted data today. HNDL attacks challenge the very foundation of data privacy and security, raising critical questions about the longevity of data protection. For instance, consider the strategic implications for national security, where classified information, if harvested now, could be decrypted and exposed in the future, potentially undermining decades of intelligence efforts and diplomatic strategies.
To counteract the threat posed by HNDL attacks, organizations and governments must adopt a dynamic and forward-thinking approach to cybersecurity. This includes investing in developing and implementing post-quantum cryptographic standards designed to be secure against the computational capabilities of quantum computers. Adopting strategies such as deploying honeypots and decoy communications can increase the cost and complexity for adversaries attempting to harvest data now for future decryption. The HNDL attack paradigm underscores the need for a paradigm shift in approaching data security, emphasizing the importance of anticipating future threats and preparing defenses against them today.
The journey towards “Quantum Day” or “Q-Day” is akin to navigating a labyrinth of scientific, technological, and practical challenges, each requiring its own set of innovative benchmarks to overcome. The realization of Q-Day is contingent upon a series of pivotal advancements in quantum science:
The federal government’s spearheading of a quantum information science ecosystem and consortia represents a significant leap forward in our collective journey towards “Quantum Day” or “Q-Day.”
Establishing such an ecosystem is not merely an advancement in quantum science; it is a strategic imperative that underscores the critical role of quantum technologies in shaping the future of national security, economic competitiveness, and technological sovereignty. Establishing a quantum science ecosystem and consortia run by the Federal Government is a crucial breakthrough and a strategic necessity defining our preparedness for “Quantum Day” and beyond. It embodies a forward-looking vision that recognizes the transformative potential of quantum technologies and the imperative of harnessing this potential to advance national interests and global security.
The Federal Government’s involvement in building and running a quantum ecosystem is pivotal for several reasons:
The success of such an ecosystem hinges on fostering a quantum-literate workforce and nurturing public-private partnerships. The complexity of quantum technologies necessitates a deep pool of talent with expertise in quantum mechanics, computer science, and cryptography. The Federal Government can play a pivotal role in cultivating this talent through education and training initiatives and incentivizing quantum technology research and development.
The National Quantum Initiative (NQI) and the NQI Advisory Committee are poised to play a pivotal role in the United States’ transition to post-quantum encryption. This transition is both necessary and urgent, given quantum computing’s potential to render current cryptographic standards vulnerable. The NQI and the NQI Advisory Committee are instrumental in addressing the broader implications of quantum computing for national security. This includes assessing the risks posed by quantum computing to national security systems and estimating the costs associated with upgrades or replacements necessary to safeguard these systems against quantum threats. Their role extends beyond the technical aspects of cryptography, encompassing the strategic considerations necessary to maintain the United States’ competitive edge in the quantum era.
The NQI, established through the National Security Memorandum-10 (NSM-10), represents a comprehensive national strategy to maintain and extend the United States’ leadership in quantum information science and its technology applications. One of the most critical aspects of the NQI’s role in post-quantum encryption efforts is its mandate to facilitate the development and standardization of quantum-resistant cryptographic algorithms. The National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) has been at the forefront of this effort, running a project to standardize post-quantum cryptography (PQC) algorithms. The NQI supports these efforts by fostering collaboration between government agencies, academia, and the private sector, ensuring the transition to PQC is coordinated and comprehensive.
The NQI Advisory Committee, a body of experts drawn from diverse sectors, is tasked with guiding the NQI’s strategic direction. This includes identifying research priorities, setting goals for quantum information science and technology, and advising on allocating resources. Their expertise and insights are invaluable in navigating the complex quantum computing and cryptography landscape.
The NQI and the NQI Advisory Committee are central to the United States’ efforts to prepare for a future where quantum computing could potentially undermine the cryptographic foundations of our digital infrastructure. Their work is not just about mitigating risks; it’s about seizing the opportunities that quantum technologies offer to enhance the security and resilience of our national security systems.
The U.S. Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) and the DC-based Quantum Network Research Consortium are also set to play instrumental roles in the evolution and fortification of post-quantum cryptography (PQC) efforts. Their involvement is not merely additive but transformative, marking a significant stride towards securing our national security infrastructure against the quantum threat.
With its storied history of pioneering research in science and technology, the NRL is uniquely positioned to contribute to PQC efforts. Its expertise spans various disciplines, including quantum physics, computer science, and cryptography. This multidisciplinary approach is crucial for tackling the challenges posed by quantum computing. By leveraging its research capabilities, the NRL can drive innovations in quantum-resistant algorithms and secure communication protocols, ensuring that our cryptographic defenses remain robust in the face of quantum advancements. The NRL’s role extends beyond research and development. It is a critical nexus for military, academia, and industry collaboration. Such collaborations are essential for translating theoretical quantum-resistant concepts into practical, deployable solutions. By fostering a synergistic ecosystem, the NRL can accelerate the transition to PQC, ensuring that our national security systems have the most advanced cryptographic protections.
The DC-based Quantum Network Research Consortium represents a concerted effort to harness the collective expertise of academia, industry, and government in quantum networking. This consortium is pivotal for developing a secure, quantum-resistant infrastructure that can underpin various applications, from secure communications to distributed quantum computing. The consortium’s focus on quantum networking is particularly relevant for PQC efforts, as it addresses the critical need for secure transmission of quantum-resistant cryptographic keys and data. The consortium’s work is expected to yield significant advancements in quantum key distribution (QKD) and other quantum-safe communication protocols. These technologies are essential for ensuring the confidentiality and integrity of communications in the post-quantum era. Moreover, the consortium’s collaborative model serves as a blueprint for how diverse stakeholders can come together to address the complex challenges of quantum computing.
The U.S. Naval Research Laboratory and the DC-based Quantum Network Research Consortium are leading the charge in ensuring that our cryptographic defenses are resilient to quantum attacks and capable of leveraging quantum technologies for enhanced security. Their contributions to PQC efforts testify to the critical role of collaborative, multidisciplinary approaches in navigating the quantum era.
While Post-Quantum Cryptography Preparedness focuses on securing our cryptographic infrastructure against the quantum threat, the Quantum Industrial Base encompasses the broader ecosystem necessary for quantum innovation and leadership. The U.S. National Quantum Initiative is the strategic framework guiding these efforts, ensuring that the United States remains at the forefront of quantum science and technology. The interplay between these elements is critical for shaping the future of quantum security and technology:
Post-quantum cryptography Preparedness is an operational stance, a proactive measure to ensure that cryptographic systems remain secure in the advent of quantum computing capabilities that could potentially break current public-key cryptography algorithms. This preparedness involves developing, standardizing, and implementing quantum-resistant cryptographic algorithms to safeguard information security across critical infrastructure and IT systems. The urgency of this transition is underscored by the potential for quantum computers to undermine foundational tools used to maintain information security, necessitating a concerted effort across sectors to migrate to post-quantum cryptography (PQC). This preparedness is not merely a technical endeavor but a strategic imperative that requires early planning, inventory of quantum-vulnerable systems, and engagement with vendors to mitigate the risks posed by cryptanalytically relevant quantum computers (CRQCs).
The Quantum Industrial Base of a Nation-state refers to the ecosystem of industries, technologies, and workforce capabilities dedicated to quantum science and its applications, including quantum computing, quantum networking, and quantum cryptography. This base is pivotal for a nation’s technological sovereignty and economic competitiveness in the quantum era. It encompasses quantum technology research, development, and commercialization, driven by a synergy between academia, industry, and government. The robustness of a nation’s Quantum Industrial Base indicates its capacity to innovate and lead in the quantum technology domain, influencing its strategic positioning on the global stage.
The U.S. National Quantum Initiative (NQI) represents a strategic, government-led effort to coordinate and accelerate quantum research and development for the benefit of the United States. Established through National Security Memorandum-10 (NSM-10), the NQI embodies a comprehensive national strategy to maintain and extend U.S. leadership in quantum information science and its technology applications. It involves collaboration across government agencies, academia, and the private sector to set research priorities, allocate resources, and guide the strategic direction of the nation’s quantum efforts. The NQI and its Advisory Committee play a crucial role in shaping the nation’s approach to quantum technologies, including the transition to post-quantum encryption, by fostering collaboration and advising on developing and standardizing quantum-resistant cryptographic algorithms.
To secure a vanguard position in the race to “Quantum Day” or Q-Day, the United States must adopt a strategy that accelerates quantum research and development and ensures the resilience of our national security infrastructure against quantum threats. A robust commitment to innovation, collaboration, and foresight should underpin this strategy, including:
Winning the race to “Quantum Day” demands a strategic, coordinated, and forward-looking approach. To secure its quantum science and technology leadership, the United States must leverage its strengths—an open society, global talent hub, unparalleled financial dynamism, and a propensity for moonshots. The journey towards Q-Day is a technological endeavor and a strategic imperative defining the future of national security, economic competitiveness, and technological sovereignty.
The scenarios for “Quantum Day” or “Q-Day” require a blend of strategic foresight and an understanding of the current trajectory of quantum information science. The day quantum computing achieves undeniable supremacy over classical computing will mark a watershed moment, not just in technology but across all facets of society. Let’s explore a few potential scenarios, each with its implications and challenges:
1. The Encryption Paradigm Shift: One of the most immediate impacts of Q-Day will be on encryption. Quantum computing has the theoretical capability to break many cryptographic protocols that secure our digital world today. In this scenario, the race to develop and implement quantum-resistant cryptography becomes a matter of urgent national and international security. The successful transition to post-quantum cryptography (PQC) will be critical to maintaining the confidentiality and integrity of global communications and data. This scenario underscores the importance of ongoing efforts by entities like NIST, which is already standardizing PQC algorithms.
2. Quantum Leap in Computational Capabilities: Quantum computing promises to solve complex problems currently intractable for classical computers, such as simulating quantum physical processes or optimizing large systems. This could lead to drug discovery, materials science, and climate modeling breakthroughs, offering solutions to humanity’s most pressing challenges. This scenario also raises concerns about the democratization of such powerful technology and the potential for misuse, necessitating robust ethical frameworks and regulatory measures.
3. Geopolitical Quantum Race: The nation or alliance that achieves quantum supremacy first could gain a significant strategic advantage, potentially altering the global balance of power. This scenario could lead to a new kind of arms race, with nations investing heavily in quantum research and development to not be left behind. The implications for national security, espionage, and cyber warfare are noteworthy, highlighting the need for international cooperation and agreements on quantum technologies.
4. Quantum Disruption in Industry: Beyond national security and scientific research, quantum computing will have a transformative impact on industries ranging from finance to logistics, enabling new ways of solving optimization and forecasting problems. Companies that can adapt to and leverage quantum computing will gain a competitive edge, while those that lag may find themselves at a significant disadvantage. This scenario emphasizes the importance of fostering a quantum-literate workforce and encouraging innovation within the private sector.
Each scenario presents unique opportunities and challenges, underscoring the need for proactive preparation and strategic planning. The transition to a quantum-enabled world will require technological innovation and thoughtful consideration of quantum technologies’ ethical, societal, and geopolitical implications.
Adversarial quantum computing attack scenarios represent a profound shift in the cybersecurity landscape, introducing challenges that demand innovative solutions and reevaluating our security paradigms. The advent of quantum computing heralds a new era where traditional cryptographic defenses could be rendered obsolete, unveiling a spectrum of potential attack vectors that adversaries could exploit. Let us delve into some of these scenarios, drawing upon a rich tapestry of knowledge and foresight:
1. Harvest Now, Decrypt Later: As previously discussed, this scenario is insidious and represents a clear and present danger. Adversaries, cognizant of the impending quantum revolution, could amass encrypted data to decrypt it once quantum computing becomes sufficiently advanced. This strategy resembles laying siege to a fortress, patiently waiting for the walls to erode over time. The implications are far-reaching, affecting national security, intellectual property, and personal privacy. The data being harvested today could include sensitive government communications, proprietary research, or even personal messages, all of which could be retroactively compromised.
2. Cryptographic Infrastructure Undermining: Quantum computing possesses the theoretical capability to break the public-key cryptography algorithms that underpin much of our digital security infrastructure. This scenario envisages a sudden collapse of these cryptographic defenses, akin to the walls of a dam giving way under pressure. The resultant flood could wash away the foundations of digital trust, leading to widespread disruption in financial systems, secure communications, and identity verification processes.
3. Quantum Spoofing and Forging: Beyond breaking encryption, quantum computing could enable adversaries to forge digital signatures and spoof identity verification systems. This capability could be exploited to impersonate individuals or entities, manipulate digital transactions, or inject malicious data into secure communications channels. The integrity of digital interactions, crucial to our modern societal fabric, would be at risk, necessitating a reimagining of identity verification mechanisms.
4. Quantum-Specific Attacks on Infrastructure: As our critical infrastructure increasingly relies on digital controls and IoT devices, the potential for quantum-enabled attacks on these systems grows. Quantum computing could facilitate novel attack vectors against industrial control systems (ICS) and operational technology (OT), exploiting currently theoretical or infeasible vulnerabilities for classical computers to exploit. The consequences could range from disruption of utility services to sabotage manufacturing processes.
In confronting these scenarios, we must adopt a posture of quantum resilience. This involves accelerating the development and standardization of quantum-resistant cryptographic algorithms and reevaluating our broader cybersecurity strategies to incorporate quantum-safe principles. The journey toward quantum resilience is not merely a technical challenge but a strategic imperative that requires foresight, collaboration, and a commitment to innovation.
NOTE: This OODA Loop Original Analysis was partially generated with the cognitive augmentation of and in collaboration with ALTzero Project – MattGPT.
Reorient Your Organization: Scenarios Exploring a Quantum Attack on Critical U.S. Power Grid Infrastructure: The Hudson Institute report on “Risking Apocalypse? Quantum Computers and the US Power Grid” highlights the significant threat posed by potential quantum computer attacks on the US power grid. It emphasizes the grid’s vulnerability to such attacks, which could decrypt existing encryption systems and cause catastrophic outcomes. As we navigate the complexities of the quantum era, we used this scenario to formulate additional scenarios for your strategic consideration, including recommendations and insights for your organization (garnered from applying scenario planning and systems thinking methodologies).
From Quantum Foundations to Universal Insights: Embracing First Principles Thinking for Better Understanding Of How Things Work: If you believe in first principles thinking, you need to know some basic facts about the quantum world.
Embracing Corporate Intelligence and Scenario Planning in an Uncertain Age: Businesses also confront unpredictable external threats besides traditional competitive challenges. This environment amplifies the significance of Scenario Planning. It enables leaders to envision varied futures, thereby identifying potential risks and opportunities. Regardless of size, all organizations should allocate time to refine their understanding of the current risk landscape and adapt their strategies. See: Scenario Planning
Quantum Computing and Quantum Sensemaking: Quantum Computing, Quantum Security, and Quantum Sensing insights to drive your decision-making process. Quantum Computing and Quantum Security
Technology Convergence and Market Disruption: Rapid technological advancements are changing market dynamics and user expectations. See Disruptive and Exponential Technologies.
The New Tech Trinity: Artificial Intelligence, BioTech, Quantum Tech: Will make monumental shifts in the world. This new Tech Trinity will redefine our economy, threaten and fortify our national security, and revolutionize our intelligence community. None of us are ready for this. This convergence requires a deepened commitment to foresight preparation and planning on a level that is not occurring anywhere. The New Tech Trinity.
Corporate Board Accountability for Cyber Risks: With a combination of market forces, regulatory changes, and strategic shifts, corporate boards and directors are now accountable for cyber risks in their firms. See: Corporate Directors and Risk
Geopolitical-Cyber Risk Nexus: The interconnectivity brought by the Internet has caused regional issues that affect global cyberspace. Now, every significant event has cyber implications, so leaders need to recognize and act upon the symbiosis between geopolitical and cyber risks. See The Cyber Threat
About the Author
Daniel Pereira is research director at OODA. He is a foresight strategist, creative technologist, and an information communication technology (ICT) and digital media researcher with 20+ years of experience directing public/private partnerships and strategic innovation initiatives.
Informing your decisions with actionable intelligence
Informing your decisions with actionable intelligence