As the Bush administration prepares for the upcoming November 2007 Mid-east Peace Summit, prominent Arab leaders voiced a hint of optimism that the summit may produce a more substantial outcome than summit’s past. Saudi Arabian Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal, who previously expressed skepticism that the summit would have a positive outcome, said his meetings with US officials concerning the summit were “encouraging.” Officials from, Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Sudan, Tunisia and Yemen are expected to take part in an Arab League follow-up committee, whose objective is to monitor the implementation of the “Declaration of Principles” agreed upon by Israeli and Palestinian representatives prior to the summit’s commencement.

The summit’s cornerstone, the Declaration of Principles, will seek to fashion a framework through which every aspect of final-status issues toward the establishment of an independent Palestinian state can be addressed.

The most sensitive of these final-states issues are the “right of return” for Palestinian refugees, borders of the two states, and the status of Jerusalem and the Old City. Currently, Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas are taking part in ongoing talks to negotiate the terms through which these issues will be addressed.

Obstacles to Peace

• Divided Governance of the Palestine Territories

The outbreak of hostilities between Hamas and Fatah on July 14, 2007 resulted in Hamas’ military takeover of the Gaza Strip (Previous Report). Without a unified, representative government, it is less likely the Palestinian Authority will deliver the one hundred percent popular support for and compliance with agreements reached between it and the Israeli government necessary for the peace process to move forward.

• Religious Fanatics’ Opposition Settlement

Jewish and Arab extremists oppose their government’s relinquishment of territory. Zionists in Israel believe all of historical Judean territory, which stretches into modern day Jordan and Lebanon, will one day be re-claimed as Israeli territories. Likewise, Arab extremists refuse to recognize an Israeli state on what they deem to be Palestinian territory. Both sides are unwilling to compromise and consider peace agreements reached between their representative government and the opposing side tantamount to treason.

• Lack of Syrian Support

Syria, whose presence at the summit and backing of “declaration of principles” is considered key to its realization, is opposed to an Israeli-Palestinian peace that does not guarantee the return of the Golan Heights, Syrian territory that was occupied by Israel in the 1967 Mideast War. Under the current framework, the return of the Golan Heights is not on the summit’s agenda. Therefore, on October 1, 2007, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad announced that Syria would not attend the US-sponsored international peace summit on the Middle East unless it addressed Israel’s occupation of the Golan Heights.

If an independent Palestinian state is established with agreed upon borders without addressing the return of the Golan Heights, the odds of Syria regaining the lost territory will decrease. Therefore, if the Golan Heights is omitted from the Declaration of Principles, Syria will do everything within its power to keep the Israel and the Palestinian Authorities from reaching an agreement, even if that means fomenting violence in Palestine.

A Shaky Peace

Any agreement reached between Israel and the Palestinian Authority (PA) that does not address the aforementioned obstacles will be unstable.

• The Palestinian President Abbas adamantly refuses to form a national unity government that includes Hamas officials. Therefore, the PA is seeking to win the support of Gazans, thus forcing the decline of Hamas’ influence in the territory, by winning concessions and real commitments from Israel.

• Both sides are attempting to execute a security crackdown on extremist elements, as well as lobby for reason and compromise among the more radical elements of their societies.

• It is unlikely that the Golan Heights will be added onto the agenda at the peace summit because the introduction would further complicate Israeli and Palestinian efforts to reach a mutually agreeable compromise. Therefore, in order to appease Syria, Israel will most likely offer to re-engage in bi-lateral negotiations.
If this plan works, Israel and the PA will have the necessary authority to implement agreed upon stipulations contained within the Declaration of Principles.

However, if the plan does not work and the states are incapable of gaining public and international support for the agreement, the peace summit will be just another failed attempt at peace.