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Analysis

  • A Millennium Challenge for Homeland Security

    Among defense insiders, Millennium Challenge 2002 stands out as one of the most controversial red team exercises in American military history. MC2002 suspiciously resembled the looming invasion of Iraq, as it involved a conventional BLUE force facing RED military forces of a small Middle Eastern nation. In theory, either side could win the free play…

  • Frontlines of Criminal Insurgency: Understanding the Plazas

    Mexico, and the cross-border region that embraces the frontier between Mexico and the United States, are embroiled in a series of interlocking, networked criminal insurgencies. These criminal insurgencies are essentially battles for dominance of the plazas, or corridors for the shipment of drugs into the United States. They are battles for profit and power. Cartels…

  • The Rise of Cyber-Mobilization

    In Gaza, a tentative ceasefire has been declared. But the war in cyberspace continues. Israel and its adversaries have taken to the global cyber commons to wage cyberwar against each other, deploying crowdsourced information militias. The Israeli Consulate and the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) extensively utilize Youtube and Twitter to make their case, boiling complicated…

  • Can Strategy Be Crowdsourced?

    Criminal, terrorist, and insurgent networks have become powerful world actors. They utilize network forms of organization to make fast decisions, cover a wide operational space, remain resilient in the face of state reprisals, and have a capacity for learning and self-correction that many top-down organizations lack.

  • Criminal Netwarriors in Mexico’s Drug Wars

    Mexico is imploding in a series of interlocking ‘criminal insurgencies’ culminating in a virtual civil war. Kidnappings, assassinations, beheadings, shoot-outs:  Mexico is gripped by combat between drug cartels, gangs and the police. Mexican President Felipe Calderon starkly states: “It’s a War.” The Drug War in Mexico has killed 6,836 people since January 2007. This year…

  • Analytical Approaches for Sensing Novel and Emerging Threats

    We are proud to feature this new paper by John Sullivan: Security and public safety agencies must address a range of current and emerging  threats. These range from conflicts, strategic crime, terrorism, disease and natural hazards, as well as the confluence of any or all occurring at a given point in time. A range of…

  • New Intel Sharing Paper

    Money quote from the Author’s Note: The unavoidable conclusion is that the U.S. government cannot continue to allow a collecting agency to make unilateral originator control determinations regarding the intelligence it collects. … I hope to explain why they are not in position to make the best “need to know” determinations – that decision must…

  • The Other Marshall Plan

    I used to wax and wane about the need to purge national security functionaries, but I’ve stopped waning, as my latest commentary at ThreatsWatch indicates.

  • Define “Bigger”

    (cross-posted at Haft of the Spear) I don’t get Insight Magazine so I don’t know the full story that goes along with this teaser: The U.S. intelligence community has assessed that Osama bin Laden has benefited from a secure haven in Pakistan that allows him to plan a major attack on the U.S. It took…

  • Coalition of the Dastardly

    (Cross posted to Haft of the Spear) I engaged in several conversations about cyber threats this past week and each conversant repeated with certainty a lack of concern over a relationship between terrorists and mobsters in the virtual world. I’d like to think that an unholy alliance of that sort isn’t possible, but . .…


OODAcasts

OODAcons

  • OODAcon 2025

    OODAcon 2025

    We are in the planning stages of OODAcon 2025, which will be held 29 October 2025 at the Hyatt Regency Reston. For an overview of last year’s OODAcon see: OODAcon 2024 Welcome to OODAcon 2025

  • OODAcon 2023

    OODAcon 2023

    OODAcon 2023 October 25th – Reston, VA The anticipation of disruptive technologies has allure for those of us trying to develop informed strategies about the future, but what if those disruptive technologies already exist today? Our theme for this year’s OODAcon is FUTURE NOW as we focus on the technologies, ideas, and risks that exist right now…

  • OODAcon 2024

    OODAcon 2024

    The conference will feature an impressive lineup of speakers—pioneers who are steering the direction of their respective fields towards a unified vision of the future. OODAcon 2024 is your arena to witness, participate, and contribute to the dialogue that drives innovation forward. Join us in hacking the future, together, as we navigate the complexities of…